Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca Prediction & Betting Tips - Conference League
Europe - Conference League
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by Nella Wagah | in Conference League Predictions
For the second time this season, Crystal Palace and AEK Larnaca will be facing off in the UEFA Conference League. The two sides met in the league phase and their paths cross again in the last 16 of this competition. Palace will host the first leg, with the winner after the return leg lined up to meet Fiorentina or Polish side Rakow. Let’s have a look at the match prediction here.
In the first meeting between these two sides, at Selhurst Park, AEK Larnaca shocked the Eagles, winning 1-0 in October. Palace had all going their way on that night, dominating the ball possession and with an xG of 1.76 while taking 15 shots against four.
Still, they dropped points. Larnaca will likely approach this game the same way, with the strategy having worked in the league phase. The Cypriots finished eighth in the first round, two places above the Eagles.
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Crystal Palace v AEK Larnaca Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.24 | 6.2 | 13 |
|
|
1.24 | 6.05 | 12 |
|
|
1.23 | 5.85 | 14.5 |
|
|
1.2 | 6 | 12 |
|
|
1.23 | 6 | 13 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Crystal Palace and AEK Larnaca?
Our prediction for the Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca match is: less than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 12/03/2026 between Crystal Palace and AEK Larnaca in Conference League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 43.51% for a win of Crystal Palace against AEK Larnaca with odds of 1.25 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca is 16.66% with odds of 6.4 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 39.83% chance ⭐ for a win of AEK Larnaca vs Crystal Palace with odds of 14.5 at Betwinner.
Crystal Palace - AEK Larnaca Prediction and Best Odds:
| Crystal Palace AEK Larnaca Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace wins | 43.51% | 1.25 at Shangrila |
| Under 2.5 | 53.2% | 2.88 at LSbet |
| Both Team To Score | 52.08% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Crystal Palace | 16.1% | 3.9 at LSbet |
Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca Form
Crystal Palace and AEK Larnaca Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
26 Feb 2026 - Conference League
22 Feb 2026 - Premier League
19 Feb 2026 - Conference League
11 Feb 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Feb 2026 - Conference League
22 Feb 2026 - Premier League
11 Feb 2026 - Premier League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
1 Jan 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
19 Feb 2026 - Conference League
8 Feb 2026 - Premier League
1 Feb 2026 - Premier League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Mar 2026 - Cypriot First Division
1 Mar 2026 - Cypriot First Division
22 Feb 2026 - Cypriot First Division
14 Feb 2026 - Cypriot First Division
8 Feb 2026 - Cypriot First Division
31 Jan 2026 - Cypriot First Division
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Mar 2026 - Cypriot First Division
1 Mar 2026 - Cypriot First Division
14 Feb 2026 - Cypriot First Division
31 Jan 2026 - Cypriot First Division
18 Jan 2026 - Cypriot First Division
4 Jan 2026 - Cypriot First Division
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Feb 2026 - Cypriot First Division
8 Feb 2026 - Cypriot First Division
25 Jan 2026 - Cypriot First Division
14 Jan 2026 - Cyprus Cup
10 Jan 2026 - Cypriot First Division
22 Dec 2025 - Cypriot First Division
Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
23 Oct 2025 - Conference League
Crystal Palace - AEK Larnaca: Form Analysis
Two losses in the league stage forced Crystal Palace to go through the knockout playoff. They passed the test well with a 3-1 aggregate win against Zrinjski Mostar. The Eagles won the home leg 2-0 and will be looking to carry the same here.
The hosts had the perfect preps for this encounter, beating Tottenham Hotspur 3-1 in their domestic league. Palace were impressive in their comeback from 1-0 down away from home. That was their third win in four matches, as the hosts bring on some stability in their game. With a run of three wins, a draw and a loss at home in Europe this season, Palace will be confident of getting their revenge.
Five red cards have been flashed in Crystal Palace’s last nine matches.
Palace’s home loss was inflicted by Larnaca, who return here aiming for the same. The Cypriots arrive here as underdogs, despite being one of the three sides yet to taste defeat in this competition. They won three and drew as many in the league phase.
Coming into this match, they just managed to end a three-game winless run by beating Chloraka 3-0 in the Cypriot league. AEK’s recent away run hasn’t had much to inspire confidence, as they lost three of five. This will be the fourth time Larnaca faces an English side, and they’ve lost two while winning once.
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Crystal Palace against AEK Larnaca Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
R. Matthews
W. Benitez
DefenderC. Riad
B. Sosa
N. Clyne
MidfielderJ. Devenny
K. Rodney
J. Lerma
W. Hughes
ForwardJ. Mateta
Y. Pino
R. Cardines
D. Dimitriou
A. Paraskevas
DefenderY. Garfunkel
P. Ioannou
D. Gerasimou
R. Mudrazija
E. Cabrera
C. Thoma
C. Loukaidis
C. Kyriakou
M. Gonzalez Rivas
Missing players
D. Munoz
MidfielderC. Doucoure
ForwardE. Nketiah
Crystal Palace & AEK Larnaca Squad Analysis
Adam Wharton has been the face of solidity in the Crystal Palace midfield. Lately he has also been pivotal in their attacks, as he showed against Tottenham last time out. The England international hasn’t scored for the club this season but has six assists.
He got two of them in a superb game against Spurs, engineering the 3-1 win. Ismaila Sarr will be a big beneficiary of Wharton’s vision in attack as he looks to add to his three Conference League goals. The Senegalese forward scored twice in his last game. With Jean-Philippe Mateta injured, Sarr will once again be relied upon to lead the attack.
Larnaca keeper Zlatan Alomerovic has kept five clean sheets in the Conference League.
Riad Bajic has been the go-to person for Larnaca in attack this season. He scored in the team’s weekend match to take his league tally to eight and 10 in all competitions. The Bosnian was responsible for the goal that delivered a win at Selhurst Park in the league phase.
He will be eyeing a third league goal in this competition this season. Larnaca will, however, be without Valentin Roberge and Waldo Rubio, who are included on the injury list.
Most goals and assists
Crystal Palace
AEK Larnaca
I. Sarr
(9 Goals)
R. Bajic
(2 Goals)
D. Kamada
(4 Assists)
M. Rohden
(2 Assists)
Crystal Palace - AEK Larnaca Key Points
- Only three goals were scored in Larnaca’s three away matches in Europe.
- Six of Palace’s last 10 matches in Europe produced under 2.5 goals.
- Palace scored more than two goals just twice in 10 matches in Europe.
- Five of Larnaca’s last six matches in Europe had under 2.5 goals.
- Larnaca scored more than twice in just one of their last six matches in Europe.
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Our Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca Prediction
There’s a lot to play for here. Palace will not only be seeking revenge for their loss to Larnaca earlier in the season, but want to make the most of the first leg at home. The Premier League side only failed to score twice in the last 10 Conference League matches.
However, they face here a side that has only conceded one goal in six games in this competition. Larnaca’s European campaign is based on a solid defensive run, they weren’t the most prolific in attack during the league stage. With such numbers, we expect a low scoring game. Therefore, our prediction for Crystal Palace v Larnaca is for less than 2.5 goals.
Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca Alternative Predictions
Draw
Crystal Palace have hit the right form heading into this game and will be fired up for the challenge, facing Larnaca for the second time. However, their home form hasn’t been great in recent times, and Larnaca will see an opportunity in that.
The Cypriots drew two of their three away matches in this competition and will try the same here. Our second prediction for this game is for a draw.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Crystal Palace AEK Larnaca
| Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace wins | 1.31 | 1.25 | -4.6% |
| Draw | 4.85 | 6.4 | +32.0% |
| AEK Larnaca wins | 7.6 | 14.5 | +90.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Crystal Palace is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 4.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 76.3% and is now 80.0% (3.7%)
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Crystal Palace vs AEK Larnaca - FAQs
The Crystal Palace v Larnaca match will be played on Thursday 12th March.
The Crystal Palace v Larnaca match will be staged at Selhurst Park, London.
The Crystal Palace v Larnaca match will be aired live. In the UK, the match will be televised on TNT Sports, while Cypriots can watch it on CYTA and CyBC. Sportytrader will also carry the match updates for this and other Conference League games.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
