Chelsea vs PSG Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Steve Ashfield | in Champions League Predictions
Chelsea may well be the world club champions but they are struggling in the UCL. The Blues are 5-2 down from the first leg and need a great comeback to end the title reign of PSG. Time for our match prediction.
Last week wasn't a good one for English Premier League clubs in Europe. That included Chelsea, who looked to be getting a good result in the first leg but then conceded three goals in the later stages of the match. With another poor performance at the weekend, Chelsea really need to bounce back to form if they are to have any chance of reaching the last eight and a tie against either Liverpool or Galatasaray.
PSG lost to Chelsea in the Club World Cup final but got revenge last week with that 5-2 home win in Paris. They haven't played since the first leg and will come into this game fresh. As you will read in our form guide, PSG have been securing some good results on the road. With a three-goal lead from the first leg, they will do all they can to clinch their place in the quarter-finals.
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Chelsea v PSG Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.26 | 4.2 | 2.85 |
|
|
2.35 | 4.2 | 2.57 |
|
|
2.07 | 4.18 | 3.03 |
|
|
2.1 | 4.33 | 2.9 |
|
|
2.16 | 4.2 | 2.86 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Chelsea and PSG?
Our prediction for the Chelsea vs PSG match is: PSG wins or draws.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 17/03/2026 between Chelsea and PSG in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 44.19% for a win of Chelsea against PSG with odds of 2.35 at Melbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Chelsea vs PSG is 16.12% with odds of 4.5 at LSbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 39.69% chance ⭐ for a win of PSG vs Chelsea with odds of 3.03 at Betwinner.
Chelsea - PSG Prediction and Best Odds:
| Chelsea PSG Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea wins | 44.19% | 2.35 at Melbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.62% | 1.18 at LSbet |
| Both Team To Score | 62.5% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Chelsea/Chelsea | 16.46% | 3.5 at Bet365 |
Chelsea vs PSG Form
Chelsea and PSG Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
13 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
6 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
28 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
25 Feb 2026 - Champions League
21 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
6 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
25 Feb 2026 - Champions League
21 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
13 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
1 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
23 Jan 2026 - Ligue 1
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
Chelsea vs PSG Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
0 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
13 Jul 2025 - Club World Cup
Chelsea - PSG: Form Analysis
Chelsea have lost their last two games and desperately need to reverse that form. Following the loss at PSG last weekend, the Blues were beaten 1-0 at home by Newcastle United in the Premier League.
Another poor performance will see them exit the Champions League and they aren't certain to qualify for this competition for next term. Over 90 minutes, it's three without a win because they required extra time to see off Wrexham in the FA Cup.
Are Chelsea in the form to win this?
Home form in this season's Champions League has seen Chelsea win all four games. That includes a 3-0 win over Barcelona but they don't look in that kind of form at present.
PSG finally won this trophy last year and would love to win it again this season. The Parisians won away at Barcelona and Bayer Leverkusen (winning 7-2) in the league phase but drew at Athletic Bilbao and lost to Sporting.
Four of their last five away games have been won. That includes the 3-2 win at Monaco in the Knockout Play-Off round. Their most recent away fixture saw them win 1-0 at Le Havre.
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Chelsea against PSG Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
T. Sharman-Lowe
M. Merrick
DefenderJ. Acheampong
W. Fofana
T. Adarabioyo
R. Lavia
L. Delap
A. Garnacho
R. Kavuma-Mcqueen
M. Guiu
S. Mheuka
Estevao
L. Chevalier
R. Marin
DefenderBeraldo
I. Zabarnyi
L. Hernandez
D. Fernandez
S. Mayulu
L. Kang-in
D. Doue
I. Mbaye
G. Ramos
Missing players
F. Jorgensen
DefenderR. James
L. Colwill
ForwardM. Mudryk
J. Gittens
F. Ruiz
ForwardQ. Ndjantou
Chelsea & PSG Squad Analysis
Two Pedro's dominate Chelsea's Champions League hopes. Pedro Neto is still eligible for this second leg but could yet be suspended for shoving a ball boy during the first leg.
Then there's Joao Pedro who has been vital to Chelsea this season with some key goals. He will need to be on top form if the Blues are to make it into the last eight of the Champions League.
Injury problems for Chelsea.
Chelsea will be without Jamie Gittens and Estevao Willian for this second leg. Also doubtful is goalie Filip Jorgensen who has a groin injury. He's probably also still having nightmares after conceding five goals in the first leg.
PSG had the weekend off, while Chelsea lost at home to Newcastle. They are expected to have the same squad that beat Chelsea in the home leg. Vitinha will hope to continue his good from against English clubs.
He's scored in each of his last three games against sides from the Premier League. PSG will be keen to get a goal on the board to make life even more difficult for the home side.
Most goals and assists
Chelsea
PSG
E. Fernandez
(3 Goals)
, 
Estevao
(3 Goals)
,
Joao Pedro
(3 Goals)
K. Kvaratskhelia
(10 Goals)
R. James
(2 Assists)
,
E. Fernandez
(2 Assists)
,
C. Palmer
(2 Assists)
K. Kvaratskhelia
(7 Assists)
Chelsea - PSG Key Points
- PSG have only lost one of their five away Champions League games this season.
- Over 90 minutes, Chelsea have gone three games without a win.
- PSG won the first leg 5-2.
- PSG have won four of their last five away matches.
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Our Chelsea vs PSG Prediction
Chelsea will need to go all out to have any chance of getting back into this tie. Their Champions League hopes are hanging on a thread after their 5-2 loss in Paris last week. They've lost again since then and this is going to be so tough for them.
PSG have only been beaten in one of their five away UCL fixtures this season. They know Chelsea will have to press forward and that is likely to play into their hands. Our main Chelsea v PSG prediction is PSG wins or draws.
Chelsea vs PSG Alternative Predictions
PSG wins
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Chelsea PSG
| Chelsea vs PSG | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea wins | 2.07 | 2.35 | +13.5% |
| Draw | 4.2 | 4.5 | +7.1% |
| PSG wins | 3.02 | 3.03 | +0.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Chelsea is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 13.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 48.3% and is now 42.6% (-5.8%)
Chelsea vs PSG - FAQs
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
