Chelsea vs Newcastle Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Premier League Predictions
Newcastle United and Chelsea are set to face off as they resume domestic action following winless outings in Europe in midweek. Chelsea plays host here, hoping to inject momentum into their top four ambitions. Meanwhile, Newcastle have stuttered all through their league campaign and come here placed 12th. They are just nine points below European football slots, and the Magpies will hope to give it another push. Read on for our prediction of the match.
Home fans will be calling for a befitting response following Chelsea’s humiliating defeat in the Champions League, a 5-2 beating in France by PSG. Newcastle United, on their part, went very close to beating Barcelona at St. James’ Park, but a late leveler from the Catalans denied them midweek victory.
This will be an even trickier game for both managers, as they will also be trying to save players for the UCL return legs coming up next week.
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Chelsea v Newcastle Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.85 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
|
|
1.81 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
|
|
1.81 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
|
|
1.83 | 4.1 | 3.75 |
|
|
1.81 | 4.1 | 3.75 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Chelsea and Newcastle?
Our prediction for the Chelsea vs Newcastle match is: Chelsea wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 14/03/2026 between Chelsea and Newcastle in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 49.64% for a win of Chelsea against Newcastle with odds of 1.88 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Chelsea vs Newcastle is 18.37% with odds of 4.25 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 31.99% chance ⭐ for a win of Newcastle vs Chelsea with odds of 4.05 at 888Starz.
Chelsea - Newcastle Prediction and Best Odds:
| Chelsea Newcastle Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea wins | 49.64% | 1.88 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.04% | 1.2 at LSbet |
| Both Team To Score | 82.5% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Chelsea/Chelsea | 22.19% | 2.88 at Bet365 |
Chelsea vs Newcastle Form
Chelsea and Newcastle's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
10
|
52 | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | +6 |
|
12
|
49 | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | -2 |
Chelsea and Newcastle Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
13 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
14 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
13 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
24 Feb 2026 - Champions League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
24 Feb 2026 - Champions League
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
18 Feb 2026 - Champions League
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
4 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
Chelsea vs Newcastle Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
11 May 2025 - Premier League
30 Oct 2024 - Carabao Cup
27 Oct 2024 - Premier League
11 Mar 2024 - Premier League
19 Dec 2023 - Carabao Cup
Chelsea - Newcastle: Form Analysis
Chelsea twice came from behind as they seemed to match PSG in their midweek Champions League match. They, however, capitulated after 73 minutes and conceded three times, to lose 5-2. A poor defence has been the major letdown for Chelsea, and that could catch up with them again here.
The Blues have only managed one clean sheet in their last 10 games, and that wasn’t even against a Premier League team. They’ve also failed to score in only one of the said 10 games. Most importantly though, Liam Rosenior's side has dominated this fixture at home. In the last 14 home games against Newcastle, Chelsea are unbeaten, winning 12.
Newcastle United haven't secured back-to-back league wins since January.
Newcastle United will not be able to reach the heights they did last season. The Magpies are coming here off the back of a really uninspiring run. Their last outing ended in a 1-1 draw with Barcelona at home in the Champions League.
While they are unbeaten in the last three against Chelsea, all those were home matches. Away games do expose the Magpies; in the league, they’ve managed just three wins in 14 on the road. Eddie Howe’s men have struggled to get themselves off mid-table, failing so far to meet the high expectations placed on the team last season.
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Chelsea against Newcastle Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
T. Sharman-Lowe
DefenderJ. Hato
M. Sarr
B. Badiashile
T. Adarabioyo
MidfielderR. Lavia
A. Santos
ForwardM. Guiu
L. Delap
J. Ruddy
N. Pope
DefenderA. Murphy
K. Trippier
D. Burn
A. Elanga
W. Osula
Joelinton
Y. Wissa
Missing players
L. Colwill
ForwardM. Mudryk
J. Gittens
Estevao
F. Schar
MidfielderB. Guimaraes
L. Miley
Chelsea & Newcastle Squad Analysis
No Premier League player in 2026 matches Chelsea’s Joao Pedro in goals. He has netted eight times and will still be the one relied upon here. It will, however, be debatable whether or not the Brazilian starts, with a tougher game ahead.
The dilemma is that the Blues also want to put their best foot forward in the top four battle. The Blues will in this game miss the enterprising Estevao, who is still out with injury.
Robert Sanchez could return to the Chelsea goal for this encounter.
At Newcastle United, the big headache for Eddie Howe will be how he uses and preserves his players ahead of a tough trip to Camp Nou. That aside, there are players he can’t even call upon, and the biggest of them is Bruno Guimaraes.
The Brazilian is still out with a muscle injury, staying in a crowded treatment room that also has Fabian Schar. Meanwhile, Jacob Ramsey is suspended for this match after his sending off against Manchester United.
Most goals and assists
Chelsea
Newcastle
Joao Pedro
(15 Goals)
B. Guimaraes
(9 Goals)
P. Neto
(6 Assists)
B. Guimaraes
(5 Assists)
Chelsea - Newcastle Key Points
- Newcastle rank 16th in expected goals away from home at just 14.36 compared to a league-high 30.58 at home.
- In 14 away league matches this season, Newcastle only won three.
- At home to Newcastle United, Chelsea are unbeaten in 14 matches.
- Newcastle are winless in six of their last 10 away matches in all competitions.
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Our Chelsea vs Newcastle Prediction
The last three meetings between these sides may not give a clear picture of this encounter, as Chelsea are winless. However, all those were away games for the Blues, who are unbeaten against Newcastle in 14 straight home matches. The Blues managed wins in 12 of those 14 meetings and will be keen on extending the same as they chase what is so far an elusive top four spot.
Chelsea hasn't generally done superbly at home, winning just six of 14 league games there, but we will back them. Notably, Newcastle have only won three of their 14 away league outings. Our prediction for Chelsea v Newcastle United is that Chelsea wins.
Chelsea vs Newcastle Alternative Predictions
BTTS
In this fixture, clean sheets have been a rare commodity; only three of the last 10 meetings have seen one team fail to score. In the two sides’ individual matches, the same has been recorded. Newcastle have conceded in all of their last 14 games, and Chelsea have won in 10. Our second prediction here is BTTS.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Chelsea Newcastle
| Chelsea vs Newcastle | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea wins | 1.92 | 1.88 | -2.1% |
| Draw | 4.17 | 4.25 | +1.9% |
| Newcastle wins | 3.92 | 4.05 | +3.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Chelsea is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 2.1% since opening
- The probability of this result was 52.1% and is now 53.2% (1.1%)
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Chelsea vs Newcastle - FAQs
The Chelsea v Newcastle United match will be played at Stamford Bridge in London.
The Chelsea v Newcastle United match will be played on Saturday, 14th March.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
