England - Premier League
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by Joseph King | in Premier League Predictions
Saturday in the English Premier League concludes with a cracker of a match as Chelsea host Liverpool in matchday seven. Plenty of storylines are at play as the Blues clash against the Reds. Read on for our prediction!
It’s been a difficult start to the 2025-26 season for Chelsea, who have underperformed in the first six games. Despite having one of the easier starting schedules, Enzo Maresca’s men have taken just eight points from the first 18 available. This sees them sitting in eighth place and seven points off their opponents today.
Liverpool, meanwhile, came storming out of the gates to race to the top of the Premier League standings. However, back-to-back losses has some questioning whether or not they’ll really be able to repeat as champions. Liverpool haven’t fared well in this fixture in recent years, losing on their last four visits to Stamford Bridge in the Premier League. Will they be able to break their hoodoo on Saturday?
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The Best Betting Odds for Chelsea v Liverpool Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.8 | 3.8 | 2.3 |
|
|
2.88 | 3.75 | 2.38 |
|
|
2.8 | 3.7 | 2.25 |
|
|
2.88 | 3.6 | 2.3 |
|
|
2.8 | 3.75 | 2.33 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Chelsea and Liverpool?
Our prediction for the Chelsea vs Liverpool match is: BTTS + over 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 04/10/2025 between Chelsea and Liverpool in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 40.3% for a win of Chelsea against Liverpool with odds of 2.98 at 22bet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Chelsea vs Liverpool is 17% with odds of 3.98 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 42.7% chance ⭐ for a win of Liverpool vs Chelsea with odds of 2.38 at Betfred.
Chelsea vs Liverpool Form
Chelsea and Liverpool's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
15 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
|
8
|
8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Chelsea and Liverpool Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Sep 2025 - Champions League
27 Sep 2025 - Premier League
23 Sep 2025 - Carabao Cup
20 Sep 2025 - Premier League
17 Sep 2025 - Champions League
13 Sep 2025 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Sep 2025 - Champions League
27 Sep 2025 - Premier League
30 Aug 2025 - Premier League
17 Aug 2025 - Premier League
10 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
8 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Sep 2025 - Carabao Cup
20 Sep 2025 - Premier League
17 Sep 2025 - Champions League
13 Sep 2025 - Premier League
22 Aug 2025 - Premier League
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Sep 2025 - Champions League
27 Sep 2025 - Premier League
23 Sep 2025 - Carabao Cup
20 Sep 2025 - Premier League
17 Sep 2025 - Champions League
14 Sep 2025 - Premier League
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Sep 2025 - Carabao Cup
20 Sep 2025 - Premier League
17 Sep 2025 - Champions League
31 Aug 2025 - Premier League
15 Aug 2025 - Premier League
4 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Sep 2025 - Champions League
27 Sep 2025 - Premier League
14 Sep 2025 - Premier League
25 Aug 2025 - Premier League
10 Aug 2025 - Community Shield
30 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
Chelsea vs Liverpool Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
33 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
4 May 2025 - Premier League
20 Oct 2024 - Premier League
25 Feb 2024 - Carabao Cup
31 Jan 2024 - Premier League
13 Aug 2023 - Premier League
4 Apr 2023 - Premier League
Chelsea - Liverpool: Form Analysis
While the reactionary fans are already hitting the alarm bells, Liverpool are still sitting top of the league table and have three points on the board in the Champions League. However, there is certainly valid criticism to levy at them.
Their victories haven’t been particularly convincing and they’ve relied on late goals to bail them out on a number of occasions. Crystal Palace gave them a taste of their own medicine last weekend, with Hale End product Eddie Nketiah potentially doing a huge favour for his former club by scoring the winner in the dying seconds.
They would follow that up with a 1-0 away loss to Galatasaray in the Champions League in what was a very flat performance overall.
Liverpool haven’t lost consecutive Premier League matches since April of 2023.
With an opening fixture list that read: Palace (H), West Ham (A), Fulham (H), Brentford (A), Man United (A) and Brighton (H), fans will have been expecting better than a 2-2-2 record for Chelsea. Their last two league outings have resulted in defeat, with a 3-1 home loss to Brighton being the latest.
They were able to respond positively in midweek with a 1-0 win over Jose Mourinho’s Benfica in the Champions League. They’ll try to take encouragement from the fact that they’ve won two of their last three overall, but will have to improve their league form to avoid falling behind in the top four race.
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Chelsea vs Liverpool last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Missing players
L. Colwill
W. Fofana
T. Adarabioyo
T. Chalobah
MidfielderD. Essugo
C. Palmer
A. Santos
ForwardL. Delap
D. Fofana
S. Bajcetic
G. Leoni
MidfielderF. Chiesa
ForwardH. Ekitike
Chelsea & Liverpool Squad Analysis
Liverpool’s weakness so far this season has undoubtedly been their defending. They’ve conceded in all but two of their games and were torn apart by a Palace team that created seven clear cut chances.
To make matters worse, their stellar goalkeeper Alisson will miss up to six weeks after sustaining an injury against Galatasaray. New signing Hugo Ekitike appears to be touch and go while Chiesa reportedly has a knock, but should be fit in time to participate.
Chelsea have as many as seven players in the treatment room, including offensive lynchpin Cole Palmer.
Indeed, Palmer’s absence is a tough blow for the hosts' chances. Chelsea have a 4-1-4 league record without their number 10 in the team since the 2023-24 season, averaging 1.67 goals scored in those games. When Palmer plays, Chelsea’s record reads as 36-19-18 with an average of 1.87 goals scored.
Injuries to a big chunk of their defensive players means we’re likely to see a backline consisting of James, Adarabioyo, Badiashile and Cucurella.
Enzo Maresca will also have to sort out his team’s disciplinary record as the Blues have now seen a sending off in three of the last four matches that they’ve played.
Joao Pedro picked up a late red card against Benfica, but the suspension only applies to the Champions League so he’ll be available for this one. Missing out, however, is Trevoh Chalobah after receiving a straight red card against Brighton.
Most goals and assists
Chelsea
Liverpool
E. Fernandez
(3 Goals)
H. Ekitike
(4 Goals)
Joao Pedro
(3 Assists)
M. Salah
(3 Assists)
Chelsea and Liverpool Stats in Premier League
Chelsea - Liverpool Key Points
- Chelsea have seen BTTS + over 2.5 goals in five of their last six games.
- Liverpool have conceded a staggering 13 clear cut scoring chances and 5.96 combined xG in their last three matches.
- Chelsea rank third in clear cut chances created (17), while Liverpool rank tied for fourth (15).
- Seven of Liverpool’s 10 matches across all competitions this season have seen BTTS + over 2.5.
- BTTS + over 2.5 has come through in the last three league fixtures between these two teams.
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Our Chelsea vs Liverpool Prediction
Liverpool’s defence has looked extremely shaky all season and they have already conceded 13 goals in their 10 matches. Attack could wind up being their best form of defence for the Reds, especially with the likes of Alexander Isak and Mo Salah leading the line.
Chelsea have been underperforming and their injury-hit backline will likely have problems containing this potent Liverpool attack. However, they still have enough attacking weapons to get on the scoresheet themselves. Backing this one to finish at least 2-1 to either side looks a good bet. Our Chelsea vs Liverpool prediction: BTTS + over 2.5.
Chelsea vs Liverpool - Other Interesting Predictions
Liverpool to win
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