Chelsea vs Leeds Prediction & Betting Tips - FA Cup
England - FA Cup
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by Steve Ashfield | in FA Cup Predictions
This Sunday sees a repeat of the 1970 FA Cup final. Chelsea are playing Leeds United in the semi-finals of the 2025-26 edition of this historic cup competition. Can the Blues end a tough week with a win over Leeds? Read our match prediction below.
It's been a tough time for Chelsea and the FA Cup is very important to them. They are down to eighth in the Premier League and may need to win this trophy to guarantee themselves European competition next season. Liam Rosenior was sacked after their midweek loss to Brighton and Hove Albion and for the second time this season, Calum McFarlane is their interim coach. Can he lead them to an FA Cup final against either Manchester City or Southampton?
Leeds United have only ever won the FA Cup on one occasion. That was the centenary final in 19272 but then they lost to Sunderland the following year. They haven't played in the final since then. The Whites are 15th in the Premier League and nine points above the relegation zone, so the fear of going down this season is nearly over. Now they aim to win what is their first FA Cup semi-final since 1987.
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Chelsea v Leeds Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.01 | 3.55 | 3.55 |
|
|
2.01 | 3.56 | 3.62 |
|
|
2.01 | 3.56 | 3.62 |
|
|
1.96 | 3.7 | 3.5 |
|
|
2.02 | 3.6 | 3.55 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Chelsea and Leeds?
Our prediction for the Chelsea vs Leeds match is: draw.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 26/04/2026 between Chelsea and Leeds in FA Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 19.55% for a win of Chelsea against Leeds with odds of 2.03 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Chelsea vs Leeds is 37.26% with odds of 6.1 at BC Game.
- Our prediction model gives a 43.19% chance ⭐ for a win of Leeds vs Chelsea with odds of 3.75 at Tonybet.
Chelsea - Leeds Prediction and Best Odds:
| Chelsea Leeds Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds wins | 43.19% | 3.75 at Tonybet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.59% | 1.91 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score: No | 52.92% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Leeds/Leeds | 20.21% | 6 at Bet365 |
Chelsea vs Leeds Form
Chelsea and Leeds Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Apr 2026 - Premier League
18 Apr 2026 - Premier League
12 Apr 2026 - Premier League
4 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
21 Mar 2026 - Premier League
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Apr 2026 - Premier League
12 Apr 2026 - Premier League
4 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Apr 2026 - Premier League
21 Mar 2026 - Premier League
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Apr 2026 - Premier League
18 Apr 2026 - Premier League
13 Apr 2026 - Premier League
5 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
21 Mar 2026 - Premier League
15 Mar 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Apr 2026 - Premier League
21 Mar 2026 - Premier League
8 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
3 Mar 2026 - Premier League
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
6 Feb 2026 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Apr 2026 - Premier League
13 Apr 2026 - Premier League
5 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
15 Mar 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
15 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
Chelsea vs Leeds Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
17 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
3 Dec 2025 - Premier League
28 Feb 2024 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2023 - Premier League
21 Aug 2022 - Premier League
11 May 2022 - Premier League
Chelsea - Leeds: Form Analysis
Five successive league defeats led to the sacking of Liam Rosenior on Wednesday. Chelsea now bid to reach their first FA Cup final since 2022 and hopefully add to their tally of lifting the trophy eight times.
It was an FA Cup tie that last saw the Blues win a match. That was their 7-0 home win over League One Port Vale in the quarter-finals. They have made it the last four without beating a Premier League side.
Wins have come against Charlton Athletic Hull City, Wrexham (after extra time) and Port Vale with 20 goals scored and only three conceded. Just one goal at the moment would delight them as they haven't scored in their last five Premier League fixtures.
A Wembley meeting, 56 years after the last match.
Leeds United played Chelsea in the 1970 FA Cup final. That ended in a draw with Chelsea winning the replay at Old Trafford. The Whites have only ever won the trophy once, 54 years ago. Three other finals (most recently in 1973) have been lost.
It's been a tougher route to the last four for them. They have beaten Derby County (coming from 1-0 down), Birmingham City, Norwich City and West Ham United. Two ties were won via a penalty shootout.
United are unbeaten in their last seven games and nine on the road. On their travels, seven of those nine games have ended leval after 90 minutes. Their last game against Chelsea was in February at Stamford Bridge, ending 2-2.
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Chelsea against Leeds Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
T. Sharman-Lowe
DefenderW. Fofana
J. Hato
J. Acheampong
MidfielderJ. Derry
C. Palmer
D. Essugo
A. Santos
L. Delap
K. Darlow
DefenderS. Bornauw
J. Rodon
S. Longstaff
A. Stach
J. Piroe
G. Wilfried
D. James
L. Nmecha
Missing players
F. Jorgensen
DefenderR. James
L. Colwill
ForwardM. Mudryk
J. Gittens
Estevao
I. Gruev
Chelsea & Leeds Squad Analysis
It's all change again at Stamford Bridge. Calum McFarlane is again their interim head coach but unlikely to be given the post full-time. He held this position earlier in the season and now he has the task of getting the Blues to the FA Cup final.
He has a big job on his hand because confidence is low at Stamford Bridge at present. Perhaps a change of coach and a big match at Wembley may help them rediscover some form on Sunday.
No Estevao for Chelsea.
They will have to do so without Estevao who was injured in last weekend's home defeat by Manchester United. Jamie Gittens and Filip Jorgensen will also be absent. It will be interesting to see what line-up the interim coach selects for this cup tie.
Leeds will be missing Anton Stach who has an ankle injury but Ao Tanaka is fit again and could well feature against Chelsea. Leeds are unbeaten in their last seven matches but draw too many games and struggle to keep clean sheets.
Chelsea - Leeds Key Points
- The most recent game between these two clubs ended in a 2-2 draw.
- Over 90 minutes, Leeds have drawn seven of their last nine away matches.
- Two of United's three games in the FA Cup this season went to penalty shootouts.
- Between them these two clubs have drawn 22 league games this season - Chelsea 9 Leeds 13.
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Our Chelsea vs Leeds Prediction
Chelsea's season has been in freefall in recent weeks. A place in the Champions League is looking increasingly unlikely and winning the FA Cup may be their way into European football next season. Will the sacking of Liam Rosenior bring about any improvement in their form?
Leeds United are nearly safe from relegation and haven't won this trophy in 54 years. They drew in midweek and that's become a common result for them in recent weeks. Our main Chelsea v Leeds prediction is a draw.
Chelsea vs Leeds Alternative Predictions
BTTS
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Chelsea Leeds
| Chelsea vs Leeds | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea wins | 1.68 | 2.03 | +20.8% |
| Draw | 3.8 | 6.1 | +60.5% |
| Leeds wins | 4.7 | 3.75 | -20.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Leeds is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 20.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 21.3% and is now 26.7% (5.4%)
Chelsea vs Leeds - FAQs
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
