Chelsea vs Burnley Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Premier League Predictions
Chelsea will look to improve their top-four chances in the English Premier League when they host the relegation-threatened Burnley in this matchday 27 fixture in London. This match on Saturday between the fifth-placed Blues and the 19th-placed Clarets comes with our prediction of Chelsea -1 European Handicap.
The Blues are locked in a tight battle to finish in the Champions League qualification places, starting this round in fifth. They have 44 points (W12, D8, L6) and are one point behind fourth, while being two points ahead of fifth. Burnley have 18 points (W4, D6, L16) and are nine points behind the safety zone.
Chelsea have important games on the horizon with trips to Arsenal and Aston Villa up next, which means they can ill afford dropping points here against relegation strugglers. Burnley were eliminated from the FA Cup last weekend, and their sole focus now will be on Premier League survival. Can the visitors trip the Blues, or do Chelsea continue their impressive record against Burnley? Read more for our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
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Chelsea v Burnley Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.24 | 6.8 | 11 |
|
|
1.21 | 6.75 | 12.5 |
|
|
1.21 | 6.75 | 12.5 |
|
|
1.22 | 6.5 | 12 |
|
|
1.21 | 6.4 | 12 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Chelsea and Burnley?
Our prediction for the Chelsea vs Burnley match is: Chelsea -1 European Handicap.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 21/02/2026 between Chelsea and Burnley in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 58.67% for a win of Chelsea against Burnley with odds of 1.25 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Chelsea vs Burnley is 28.33% with odds of 7.04 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 13% chance ⭐ for a win of Burnley vs Chelsea with odds of 13.3 at 888Starz.
Chelsea - Burnley Prediction and Best Odds:
| Chelsea Burnley Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea wins | 58.67% | 1.25 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.71% | |
| Both Team To Score | 63.75% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Chelsea/Chelsea | 30.99% | 1.67 at Bet365 |
Chelsea vs Burnley Form
Chelsea and Burnley's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
10
|
52 | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | +6 |
|
19
|
22 | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | -37 |
Chelsea and Burnley Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
3 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
14 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
3 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
11 Feb 2026 - Premier League
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
2 Feb 2026 - Premier League
30 Jan 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
24 Jan 2026 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
30 Jan 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
24 Jan 2026 - Premier League
16 Jan 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Feb 2026 - Premier League
2 Feb 2026 - Premier League
23 Jan 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
9 Jan 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
3 Jan 2026 - Premier League
Chelsea vs Burnley Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
22 Nov 2025 - Premier League
30 Mar 2024 - Premier League
7 Oct 2023 - Premier League
5 Mar 2022 - Premier League
6 Nov 2021 - Premier League
31 Jan 2021 - Premier League
Chelsea - Burnley: Form Analysis
Chelsea thrashed Hull 4-0 away from home last Friday to progress in the FA Cup. That was their seventh win in their last nine competitive games (D1, L1), while they have four wins in the last five Premier League fixtures.
The Blues haven’t quite dominated teams at Stamford Bridge, as they could win only two of their last five Premier League fixtures at this venue (D2, L1). In fact, they have dropped 15 points from winning positions in home matches this season.
Chelsea have 13 wins from their 19 Premier League matches against Burnley.
Burnley lost 2-1 at home against Mansfield last weekend in the FA Cup to crash out of the competition. That was their third defeat in the last four competitive matches (W1), with their only win coming in the Premier League.
That win came at Crystal Palace (3-2) in their last league game, which ended a long wait for a win for the visitors. They have lost 11 of their last 17 Premier League fixtures (W1, D5).
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Chelsea against Burnley Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
G. Slonina
DefenderJ. Hato
M. Sarr
J. Acheampong
T. Adarabioyo
R. Lavia
ForwardL. Delap
A. Garnacho
M. Guiu
M. Weiss
DefenderL. Pires
Q. Hartman
H. Ekdal
MidfielderF. Luis
J. Ward Prowse
A. Barnes
L. Tchaouna
J. Bruun Larsen
Missing players
F. Jorgensen
DefenderL. Colwill
ForwardM. Mudryk
J. Gittens
C. Roberts
A. Tuanzebe
J. Beyer
MidfielderJ. Cullen
ForwardM. Tresor
A. Broja
Z. Amdouni
Chelsea & Burnley Squad Analysis
Chelsea will be without Marc Cucurella, who is out with a hamstring problem for up to four weeks. Joao Pedro, Reece James, and Cole Palmer were rested for the FA Cup fixture and should be back in contention here.
The Blues are set to continue in their 4-2-3-1 formation with Pedro likely to lead the line. Palmer is likely to slot behind him on the right flank, while Enzo Fernandez could start in the no. 10 role.
Palmer has four goals in his last two league games for Chelsea.
Burnley had an unexpected win at Palace and could stick to the same team, as they have no new injury absences. Axel Tuanzebe remains out of the squad, while James Ward-Prowse may have to wait for his Premier League debut with his new club.
The Clarets have lined up in a 3-4-3 formation against Palace and more regularly in recent league games but have resorted to a defensive 4-5-1 system to stifle a few teams. Either way, their chances depend on forward Jaidon Anthony, who has six Premier League goals this season.
Most goals and assists
Chelsea
Burnley
Joao Pedro
(15 Goals)
Z. Flemming
(11 Goals)
P. Neto
(6 Assists)
Q. Hartman
(5 Assists)
Chelsea - Burnley Key Points
- Chelsea have four wins in their last five Premier League matches, three coming by a two-goal margin.
- Burnley lost three of their last four competitive matches, two of those by at least a two-goal margin.
- Burnley lost five of their last eight away league games.
- Chelsea have three wins in their last four matches against Burnley, each with at least two-goal margin.
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Our Chelsea vs Burnley Prediction
Chelsea were dumped out of the EFL Cup by Arsenal but have recovered well in recent weeks to advance in the FA Cup, as well as stay alive in the Premier League top-four race. They can chase Manchester United down in the top four places and have momentum in their corner with six wins out of their last eight competitive games. Burnley are struggling to move out of the relegation zone, and their recent form isn’t any comfort.
Value in this fixture is in the handicap market, and our Chelsea vs Burnley prediction is Chelsea -1 European Handicap.
Chelsea vs Burnley Alternative Predictions
Cole Palmer first goalscorer
Cole Palmer was rested for the FA Cup fixture against Hull, but his last two starts have been blockbusters. He has four goals to his name in those two matches, where Chelsea scored five in total. Palmer also enjoys playing against promoted sides, as he scored eight and assisted six in 12 Premier League starts for Chelsea against such teams. He could be eyeing a few goals here.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Chelsea Burnley
| Chelsea vs Burnley | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea wins | 1.31 | 1.25 | -4.6% |
| Draw | 6.2 | 7.04 | +13.5% |
| Burnley wins | 10.9 | 13.3 | +22.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Chelsea is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 4.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 76.3% and is now 80.0% (3.7%)
Chelsea vs Burnley - FAQs
The Chelsea vs Burnley English Premier League match will not be telecast live on television in the UK as it is in the 3pm Saturday blackout.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our English Premier League Livescore page!
This is a fixture that hasn’t historically troubled Chelsea. The Blues have lost only one of their 19 Premier League matches against the Clarets (W13, D5), which came back in the 2017-18 season.
Does that spell doom for Burnley? Not really, because the Clarets may have won only eight points against the Blues (W1, D5), but seven of those have come at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea would be keen to correct that record, and there’s extra incentive to do well. The Blues lost 2-1 at home to Sunderland and 3-1 away to Leeds United earlier in this campaign. They have never lost to all three promoted sides in a single Premier League campaign before.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
