NK Celje vs AEK Athens Prediction & Betting Tips - Conference League
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by Ita Emmanuel | in Conference League Predictions
Celje host AEK Athens in this first leg of the 2025–26 UEFA Europa Conference League Round 16 at Stadion Z'dezele on Thursday. Can the Yellow and Blues overcome the Double-Headed Eagles to boost their chances of qualifying for the quarterfinals? Here is our prediction.
After back-to-back defeats left their Knockout Rounds Play-offs hopes hanging in the balance, a crucial one point against Shelbourne in their final league-phase clash ensured Celje secured their berth in the playoffs. They then saw off Kosovan champions Drita with a back-to-back 3–2 wins to qualify for this round of the competition. That victory saw them edge close to matching last season's feat of becoming the first Slovenian club to reach the quarterfinals of a UEFA club competition.
A run of four wins, one draw, and a defeat saw AEK Athens finish third in the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League standings, securing automatic qualification for Round 16. interestingly, their only defeat in the competition came against Celje in the opening round at Stadion Z'dezele, adding an additional layer of intrigue to this clash. Can they exact revenge with a win against the Slovenians on Thursday? Stay tuned as we delve into deeper analysis.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
NK Celje v AEK Athens Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5 | 4 | 1.68 |
|
|
4.38 | 3.94 | 1.75 |
|
|
5 | 3.96 | 1.66 |
|
|
4.33 | 3.9 | 1.73 |
|
|
4.4 | 3.95 | 1.74 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between NK Celje and AEK Athens?
Our prediction for the NK Celje vs AEK Athens match is: NK Celje or Draw.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 12/03/2026 between NK Celje and AEK Athens in Conference League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 35.89% for a win of NK Celje against AEK Athens with odds of 5.05 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between NK Celje vs AEK Athens is 32.08% with odds of 4.05 at Shangrila.
- Our prediction model gives a 32.03% chance ⭐ for a win of AEK Athens vs NK Celje with odds of 1.75 at Melbet.
NK Celje - AEK Athens Prediction and Best Odds:
| NK Celje AEK Athens Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| NK Celje wins | 35.89% | 5.05 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.24% | 1.84 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 62.5% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: NK Celje | 17.9% | 11 at LSbet |
NK Celje vs AEK Athens Form
NK Celje and AEK Athens Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Mar 2026 - Prva Liga
1 Mar 2026 - Prva Liga
26 Feb 2026 - Conference League
19 Feb 2026 - Conference League
14 Feb 2026 - Prva Liga
8 Feb 2026 - Prva Liga
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Feb 2026 - Conference League
14 Feb 2026 - Prva Liga
4 Feb 2026 - Prva Liga
18 Dec 2025 - Conference League
7 Dec 2025 - Prva Liga
30 Nov 2025 - Prva Liga
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Mar 2026 - Prva Liga
1 Mar 2026 - Prva Liga
19 Feb 2026 - Conference League
8 Feb 2026 - Prva Liga
1 Feb 2026 - Prva Liga
11 Dec 2025 - Conference League
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - Superleague
1 Mar 2026 - Superleague
22 Feb 2026 - Superleague
15 Feb 2026 - Superleague
8 Feb 2026 - Superleague
1 Feb 2026 - Superleague
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - Superleague
22 Feb 2026 - Superleague
1 Feb 2026 - Superleague
18 Jan 2026 - Superleague
14 Jan 2026 - Greece Cup
21 Dec 2025 - Superleague
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Mar 2026 - Superleague
15 Feb 2026 - Superleague
8 Feb 2026 - Superleague
24 Jan 2026 - Superleague
11 Jan 2026 - Superleague
14 Dec 2025 - Superleague
NK Celje vs AEK Athens Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
2 Oct 2025 - Conference League
NK Celje - AEK Athens: Form Analysis
Celje comes into this match on back-to-back losses in their domestic league matches. The most recent of these was a 2–1 defeat to Aluminij last Thursday – a result that narrowed their lead at the top of the Prva Liga rankings to five points.
Despite this recent drop-off on the domestic scene, Celje's 2025-26 UECL campaign remains very much on track. They defeated Kosovan champions Drita 3–2 in both legs (6–4 on aggregate) of their Knockout Rounds Play-offs tie to secure their place in this Round 16.
Interestingly, Ivan Mayewski's side's second-leg win over Drita extended their unbeaten run at Stadion Z'dezele to 14 matches, including a 3–1 victory over AEK Athens in their previous and only encounter.
Celje have averaged three goals per contest in their last five home matches across all competitions
Luka Jovic's stoppage-time penalty sealed a dramatic 3–2 comeback victory for AEK Athens against visiting Craiova in their UECL final league-phase clash. That victory moved them to a third-place finish in the standings, securing their place in Round 16.
They defeated AEL Larissa 1–0 at the weekend to reclaim the top spot in the Greek Super League and extend their unbeaten run to eight matches across all competitions. Marko Nikolić's side are unbeaten in their last 11 away matches across all competitions (W8, D3).
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NK Celje against AEK Athens Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
L. Kolar
S. Sluga
DefenderD. Castro Pazos
I. Calusic
G. Vodeb
D. Vuklisevic
MidfielderI. Vidovic
M. Avdyli
F. Jevsenak
P. Daniel
A. Kotnik
A. Angelopoulos
A. Brignoli
DefenderJ. Penrice
M. Georgiev
D. Vida
MidfielderD. Kaloskamis
D. Kutesa
N. Eliasson
P. Mantalos
R. Pereyra
Zini
NK Celje & AEK Athens Squad Analysis
Apart from their long-term absentees – Jens Jonsson and Hakim Sahabo – AEK Athens will parade their regular IX for this match. Thomas Strakosha is expected to return on goal, while Harold Moukoudi leads the defense alongside Filipe Relvas, James Penrice and Lazaros Rota.
Razvan Marin, Orbelin Pineda, Niclas Eliasson, and Aboubakary Koita remain Marko Nikolić's priority midfield options barring late developments that may necessitate changes in the squad. Luka Jovic has a team-leading 16 goals this season and will lead the attack alongside Barnabas Varga.
Centre-back Domagoj Vida holds the record for the most UEFA club competition appearances (102) among current AEK Athens players
After a lengthy spell on the sidelines, Armandas Kucys returned with a bang for Celje, finding the net in their dramatic 3–3 Prva Liga draw against NK Maribor in February 2026. AEK Athens will have to keep an eye on the Lithuanian forward, who has scored or assisted in five of his last six appearances for Celje.
Svit Seslar's brace made the difference in the second-leg win against Drita and he is available to lead the charge in the middle of the park on Thursday with Ivan Calusic and Mario Kvesic, while Rudi Požeg Vancaš and Nikita Iosifov join Kucys in the attack.
Most goals and assists
NK Celje
AEK Athens
F. Kovacevic
(5 Goals)
A. Koita
(4 Goals)
M. Avdyli
(1 Assists)
, 
V. Lisakovich
(1 Assists)
, 
L. Bejger
(1 Assists)
, 
M. Kvesic
(1 Assists)
, 
R. Pozeg Vancas
(1 Assists)
,
D. Hrka
(1 Assists)
, 
A. Kucys
(1 Assists)
, 
J. Nieto
(1 Assists)
,
S. Seslar
(1 Assists)
O. Pineda
(2 Assists)
, 
S. Pilios
(2 Assists)
, 
R. Marin
(2 Assists)
NK Celje - AEK Athens Key Points
- Celje are unbeaten in their last 14 home matches across all competitions.
- Celje have won their last three home matches.
- AEK Athens lost 3–1 in their previous trip to face Celje in this competition.
- AEK Athens are winless in their last two away matches.
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Our NK Celje vs AEK Athens Prediction
Bookmakers' are backing AEK Athens to win given their strong recent results on the road and a relatively more European experience than Celje. However, it's not likely to be a stroll in the park for the Greek side.
They didn't have it easy in their previous trip to Stadion Z'dezele despite being deemed as favorites and Thursday's clash may not be any different. Celje remain undefeated at Stadion Z'dezele in their last 14 matches at the venue. Our Celje vs AEK Athens prediction is NK Celje or Draw.
NK Celje vs AEK Athens Alternative Predictions
Draw
AEK Athens' recent away form is worth noting. While we don't see them winning the contest, they are likely to hold Celje to a draw.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis NK Celje AEK Athens
| NK Celje vs AEK Athens | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| NK Celje wins | 2.91 | 5.05 | +73.5% |
| Draw | 3.5 | 4.05 | +15.7% |
| AEK Athens wins | 2.36 | 1.75 | -25.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- NK Celje is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 73.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 34.4% and is now 19.8% (-14.6%)
Get up to €100 to bet on the NK Celje vs. AEK Athens game
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
