ATP - ATP Japan Open
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Tennis Predictions
Top seed Carlos Alcaraz will face off with second seed Taylor Fritz to decide this year’s Japan Open Championship. What is their fifth career meeting is also their first showdown as a championship match. Read on for our prediction.
Carlos Alcaraz has made it to yet another final in 2025. The world number one, who is having his best-ever tour campaign, has won seven of nine finals so far.
He is on pace to win 10 titles, which will make him only the sixth player in the ATP to win as many finals in a season.
Alcaraz, who is debuting in Tokyo, defeated Casper Ruud by coming back from a set down in the semi-finals.
Taylor Fritz defeated Alcaraz less than a fortnight ago in their most recent showdown. Seeking his first win against the Spaniard, Fritz won in straight sets to lead Team World to the Laver Cup title.
He will hope to reign supreme again as he seeks to win a second title in Tokyo. The American, who has won two titles in 2025, was crowned champion in this 500 event in 2022.
Fritz defeated countryman Jenson Brooksby in straight sets in the semis. Now on 49 wins for this calendar year, Fritz has moved up to fourth in the live ranking.
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The Best Betting Odds for Carlos Alcaraz v Taylor Fritz Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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1.2 | 4.5 |
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1.17 | 5 |
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1.2 | 4.5 |
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1.2 | 4.33 |
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1.19 | 4.7 |
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Who will win the Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz match is: Alcaraz to win in three sets.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz game on 30/09/2025 of the current ATP Japan Open season:
- Carlos Alcaraz has a 66.28% chance to win against Taylor Fritz according to 22bet ⭐ with the odds of 1.22.
- Taylor Fritz has a 33.72% probability of winning facing Carlos Alcaraz ⭐ with odds of 5 at William Hill.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Carlos Alcaraz has a 66.28 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 66.28 % |
| Taylor Fritz | 33.72 % |
Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz Form
Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
29 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
28 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
27 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
25 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
21 Sep 2025 - Laver Cup,Singles Matches
20 Sep 2025 - Laver Cup,Singles Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
29 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
27 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
26 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
25 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
21 Sep 2025 - Laver Cup,Singles Matches
20 Sep 2025 - Laver Cup,Singles Matches
Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
75 %
25 %
20 Sep 2025 - Laver Cup,Singles Matches
11 Jul 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
22 Sep 2024 - Laver Cup,Singles Matches
30 Mar 2023 - ATP Miami
Carlos Alcaraz - Taylor Fritz Key Points
- Alcaraz has defeated Fritz three times previously.
- On hard courts this year, Alcaraz has won 27 of 31 duels.
- Three of Fritz’s last six tour finals have ended in defeat.
- Fritz has lost two of the last three finals he has faced off with a top 10 player.
- Alcaraz has won seven of the nine tour finals he has contested this year.
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Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz Prediction
Our prediction for Carlos Alcaraz v Taylor Fritz is for Alcaraz to win in three sets. This is the first time that Alcaraz and Fritz are facing off in a final. As they are among the best-performing players in the ATP, we should see a hard-fought battle that will most likely see a third set contested.
Alcaraz has the upper hand, being the most in-form player this season, having won over 60 matches and recorded fewer than 10 losses. He has won the most finals and has a dominant record against Fritz. Fritz will, however, not be dispatched easily. The American is a former Tokyo champion and defeated Alcaraz not less than two weeks ago.
Get a retirement guarantee for the Carlos Alcaraz vs. Taylor Fritz game!
When you place a bet on the match between Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz you can get a retirement guarantee with bet365. This means that your bet will be paid out as a winner if your opponent retires.
It does not matter whether you bet on Carlos Alcaraz or Taylor Fritz , if your opponent has to retire from the match with an injury, you will get paid as a winner!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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