Burnley vs Leeds Prediction & Betting Tips - Championship

England - Championship

Burnley
27/01/2025 15:00
Leeds

Prediction :

 

Less than 2.5 goals

 
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 by Steve Ashfield | in Championship Predictions

Leeds United can go four points clear at the top of the Championship with an away win at Burnley.  They are a point clear of Sheffield United with this game in hand. Burnley are third in the table and will move into second if they get a home win. If that victory was to be by three clear goals, they'd be top of the Championship on goal difference. It's a vital game therefore for both the Whites and Clarets. Read our match prediction below.

Burnley are unbeaten in their last 15 league games but their opponents haven't lost in their last ten matches in the Championship. One of the strengths of Burnley is their defensive record and as you'll read in the form section of this preview, scoring against them is not an easy task at all. Between them, these two sides have only conceded 28 league goals in 56 matches. All of which makes this a fascinating top-of-the-table clash.

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Burnley vs Leeds Form

Burnley and Leeds's standings in the Championship

Teams Pts P W D L GD
1 Leeds
100 46 29 13 4 +65
2 Burnley
100 46 28 16 2 +53

Burnley and Leeds Last Matches

Burnley
Burnley Last matches
W L W D W W
Wins

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.67 Total goals
17% BTTS
2.33 Goals scored
0.33 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

22 Jan 2025 - Championship

Plymouth
0 :  5
Burnley

21 Jan 2025 - Professional Development League

Burnley
5 :  0
Peterborough United

17 Jan 2025 - Championship

Burnley
0 :  0
Sunderland

11 Jan 2025 - FA Cup

Reading
1 :  3
Burnley

7 Jan 2025 - Professional Development League

Burnley
0 :  1
Sheffield United

4 Jan 2025 - Championship

Blackburn
0 :  1
Burnley
W W D L D W
Wins

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.17 Total goals
17% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
0.33 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

21 Jan 2025 - Professional Development League

Burnley
5 :  0
Peterborough United

17 Jan 2025 - Championship

Burnley
0 :  0
Sunderland

7 Jan 2025 - Professional Development League

Burnley
0 :  1
Sheffield United

1 Jan 2025 - Championship

Burnley
0 :  0
Stoke

21 Dec 2024 - Championship

Burnley
2 :  1
Watford

17 Dec 2024 - Professional Development League

Burnley
4 :  0
Hull City
W W D W W W
Wins

5/6 (83%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.5 Total goals
33% BTTS
2.17 Goals scored
0.33 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

22 Jan 2025 - Championship

Plymouth
0 :  5
Burnley

11 Jan 2025 - FA Cup

Reading
1 :  3
Burnley

4 Jan 2025 - Championship

Blackburn
0 :  1
Burnley

29 Dec 2024 - Championship

Middlesbrough
0 :  0
Burnley

26 Dec 2024 - Championship

Sheffield United
0 :  2
Burnley

15 Dec 2024 - Championship

Norwich
1 :  2
Burnley
Leeds
Leeds Last matches
W D D W W W
Wins

4/6 (67%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.5 Total goals
33% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
0.67 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

22 Jan 2025 - Championship

Leeds
2 :  0
Norwich

19 Jan 2025 - Championship

Leeds
3 :  0
Sheffield Wednesday

11 Jan 2025 - FA Cup

Leeds
1 :  0
Harrogate Town

4 Jan 2025 - Championship

Hull
3 :  3
Leeds

1 Jan 2025 - Championship

Leeds
1 :  1
Blackburn

29 Dec 2024 - Championship

Derby County
0 :  1
Leeds
W W D W W W
Wins

5/6 (83%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Losses

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.67 Total goals
33% BTTS
2.33 Goals scored
0.33 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

22 Jan 2025 - Championship

Leeds
2 :  0
Norwich

19 Jan 2025 - Championship

Leeds
3 :  0
Sheffield Wednesday

11 Jan 2025 - FA Cup

Leeds
1 :  0
Harrogate Town

1 Jan 2025 - Championship

Leeds
1 :  1
Blackburn

21 Dec 2024 - Championship

Leeds
4 :  0
Oxford United

10 Dec 2024 - Championship

Leeds
3 :  1
Middlesbrough
W L D W W D
Wins

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Losses

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.17 Total goals
50% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

4 Jan 2025 - Championship

Hull
3 :  3
Leeds

29 Dec 2024 - Championship

Derby County
0 :  1
Leeds

26 Dec 2024 - Championship

Stoke
0 :  2
Leeds

14 Dec 2024 - Championship

Preston North End
1 :  1
Leeds

30 Nov 2024 - Championship

Blackburn
1 :  0
Leeds

24 Nov 2024 - Championship

Swansea
3 :  4
Leeds

Burnley vs Leeds Stats: Head to Head (H2H)

Burnley

20 %

Draw

20 %

Leeds

60 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

2.4
Total goals
40%
BTTS
0.6
Goals scored
1.8
Goals conceded
40%
Over 2.5
60%
Under 2.5

14 Sept 2024 - Championship

Leeds
0 :  1
Burnley

2 Jan 2022 - Premier League

Leeds
3 :  1
Burnley

29 Aug 2021 - Premier League

Burnley
1 :  1
Leeds

15 May 2021 - Premier League

Burnley
0 :  4
Leeds

27 Dec 2020 - Premier League

Leeds
1 :  0
Burnley

Burnley - Leeds: Form Analysis

Burnley are two points behind second-placed Sheffield United and three adrift of Leeds. They'd be top but for drawing 11 league matches this season and only West Brom and Preston have had more stalemates.

The Clarets won their last league game 5-0 at bottom-of-the-table Plymouth Argyle. That was the first time since August that they have scored more than twice in a league fixture. Burnley had only scored once in their previous four Championship matches, three of which ended goalless.

Burnley have the best defensive record in the Championship.

Only nine league goals have been conceded by Burnley this season in 28 games, the best defensive record in the league.

Just four of those were scored against them at Turf Moor but they've only scored 15 themselves. 10 of their 13 home league fixtures have had under 2.5 goals scored in them.

Leeds United will go six points clear of third place if winning this match. They have won their last three league and cup games without conceding. Their most recent league game saw them beat Norwich 2-0 at home.

United are unbeaten in their last ten league matches. Six of their last eight away league games have had under 2.5 goals scored in them.

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Burnley against Leeds Lineups: Starting 11

Burnley

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

1
J. Trafford
14
C. Roberts
6
C. Egan-Riley
5
M. Esteve
12
B. Humphreys
24
J. Cullen
29
J. Laurent
11
J. Anthony
8
J. Brownhill
17
L. Foster
19
Z. Flemming
10
J. Piroe
14
M. Solomon
11
B. Aaronson
7
D. James
44
I. Gruev
22
A. Tanaka
25
S. Byram
4
E. Ampadu
6
J. Rodon
2
J. Bogle
1
I. Meslier

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

Leeds

Substitutes

Burnley
Burnley
Goalkeeper

V. Hladky

Defender

J. Worrall

L. Pires

J. Egan

Midfielder

H. Mejbri

J. Brownhill 89'

Forward

J. Rodriguez

J. Sarmiento

L. Foster 74'

L. Koleosho

A. Barnes

Leeds
Leeds
Goalkeeper

K. Darlow

Defender

J. Firpo

M. Wober

J. Guilavogui

I. Gruev 90'

Midfielder

I. Schmidt

J. Rothwell

Forward

Mateo Joseph

J. Piroe 71'

L. Ramazani

M. Solomon 71'

G. Wilfried

Burnley & Leeds Squad Analysis

Welsh international Aaron Ramsey will be missing for Burnley due to a cruciate ligament problem. Also out for the home side are Jordan Beyer and Enock Agyei. Manuel Benson and Nathan Redmond have resumed training but remain doubtful for this game against Leeds.

The chances are that Burnley will play the same starting line-up that played in the 5-0 win at Plymouth Argyle. They will hope for more goals from Zian Flemming who scored twice against Argyle.

United will be without Bamford and Struijk.

Leeds United will be without Patrick Bamford and Pascal Struijk, both of who have hamstring problems. Ethan Ampadu will continue to play in a defensive role for United, who haven't conceded in their last three matches.

Daniel James and Manor Solomon were both on the scoresheet in the recent 2-0 win over Norwich City. They are fully expected to retain their positions so Largie Ramazani is likely to remain a substitute.

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Burnley
CD Huachipato Leeds
Top Goalscorer
England J. Brownhill (18 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
Suriname J. Piroe (19 Goals)
Best assists
England J. Anthony (8 Assists)
Best assists
Israel M. Solomon (13 Assists)

Burnley - Leeds Key Points

  1. Ten of Burnley's 13 home league games this season have had under 2.5 goals scored in them.
  2. Burnley have only conceded four home league goals this season.
  3. Only 19 goals have been scored in Burnley's 13 home league fixtures.
  4. Leeds have played 13 away league games this season with ten having under 2.5 goals scored in them.
  5. The reverse fixture saw Burnley win 1-0 at Elland Road.
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Our Burnley vs Leeds Prediction

A tight match looks likely in this Championship match between Burnley and Leeds United. Both sides have strong defensive records, particularly the home side. Burnley scored five in their last game against Plymouth but that was a rare goal-spree by them. Three of their last four games have ended 0-0.

Leeds United are also proving difficult to score against in recent weeks with three straight clean sheets. Our main Burnley v Leeds United prediction is under 2.5 goals to be scored.

Prediction :

 

Less than 2.5 goals

 
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Burnley vs Leeds Alternative Predictions

Draw and under 2.5 goals scored

Odds 3.5
Burnley have drawn 11 league games this season and each of them had under 2.5 goals scored in them.  Three of their last four league games have ended goalless.
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Burnley vs Leeds - FAQs

This match between Burnley and Leeds is being played on Monday January 27. It has a scheduled kick-off of 20:00 UK time.
This is a home match for Burnley in the Championship. Therefore, this game will be played at Turf Moor in Burnley. They are unbeaten at home in the league this season with six wins and seven draws.
This game between Burnley and Leeds is being shown on Sky Sports. You will need a monthly subscription or a day pass to view this channel. Go to our Championship livescore for the latest statistics and live text commentary.

All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

Burnley vs Leeds Prediction