Burnley vs Brighton Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Premier League Predictions
This weekend’s bumper-to-bumper Premier League card brings us a big-stakes battle, with Burnley playing host to Brighton & Hove Albion at Turf Moor on Saturday afternoon. The Clarets are 19th in the league standings, while the Seagulls are in 10th place after 31 games. Check out our match prediction below!
Time is running out for Burnley! Scott Parker’s side have a massive task on their hands if they are to pull off one of the greatest escapes we’ve seen in EPL history. With seven games to play, the Clarets are 10 points behind fourth-bottom Tottenham Hotspur and winless in exactly two months coming into this fixture.
The international break may have been an unwanted disruption for Fabian Hurzeler, as the Seagulls were soaring before the stoppage, but they will be looking to pick up from where they left off. Brighton are the current gatekeepers to the top-half of the table, and a win here could propel them into the European places if results elsewhere go in their favour. Let’s get into the key stats!
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Burnley v Brighton Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5 | 4.2 | 1.66 |
|
|
4.88 | 4.24 | 1.63 |
|
|
4.88 | 4.24 | 1.63 |
|
|
5 | 4.2 | 1.65 |
|
|
4.9 | 4 | 1.65 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Burnley and Brighton?
Our prediction for the Burnley vs Brighton match is: Brighton wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 11/04/2026 between Burnley and Brighton in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 28.7% for a win of Burnley against Brighton with odds of 5.2 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Burnley vs Brighton is 21.61% with odds of 4.4 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 49.69% chance ⭐ for a win of Brighton vs Burnley with odds of 1.69 at 888Starz.
Burnley - Brighton Prediction and Best Odds:
| Burnley Brighton Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton wins | 49.69% | 1.69 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.42% | 1.8 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 53.33% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Brighton/Brighton | 20.11% | 2.5 at Bet365 |
Burnley vs Brighton Form
Burnley and Brighton's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8
|
53 | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | +6 |
|
19
|
22 | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | -37 |
Burnley and Brighton Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Mar 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
21 Mar 2026 - Premier League
16 Mar 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
9 Mar 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
3 Mar 2026 - Premier League
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Mar 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
23 Feb 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Mar 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
21 Mar 2026 - Premier League
9 Mar 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
3 Mar 2026 - Premier League
27 Feb 2026 - U21 Premier League Cup
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Mar 2026 - Premier League
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Mar 2026 - Premier League
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
8 Feb 2026 - Premier League
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
19 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
11 Feb 2026 - Premier League
24 Jan 2026 - Premier League
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
Burnley vs Brighton Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
50 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
3 Jan 2026 - Premier League
13 Apr 2024 - Premier League
9 Dec 2023 - Premier League
19 Feb 2022 - Premier League
14 Aug 2021 - Premier League
6 Feb 2021 - Premier League
Burnley - Brighton: Form Analysis
Since their shock defeat to Mansfield Town in the FA Cup in February, Burnley have failed to win any of their Premier League games (D2 L3) and are now favourites to suffer the drop this season.
Across their last 22 EPL matches, the Clarets have picked up a mere 10 points (W1 D7 L14), which is the same points tally they managed in their first nine games of the season (W3 D1 L5).
The hosts are now also winless in their last five home league games (D3 L2) and have earned just 11 points from 15 games at Turf Moor this season (W2 D5 L8) - the second-worst home record in the top flight.
Burnley have scored the fewest (15) and conceded the most (38) home goals in the EPL this season!
In contrast, Brighton & Hove Albion have experienced a resurgence since bowing out of the FA Cup to Liverpool in February, winning four of their five league games leading up to the international break.
Their only defeat in that period was against league leaders Arsenal last month. Across the last five gameweeks, only the Gunners (13) have earned more points in the Prem than the Seagulls (12).
The visitors have won their last two away games, as many as they won in their first 13 league outings this season. They are also unbeaten in their last four visits to this venue, winning two and drawing two.
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Burnley against Brighton Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
M. Weiss
DefenderJ. Worrall
L. Pires
K. Walker
A. Broja
L. Foster
L. Tchaouna
M. Tresor
J. Bruun Larsen
J. Steele
DefenderIgor
M. De Cuyper
J. Veltman
K. Mitoma
C. Baleba
S. March
ForwardG. Rutter
C. Kostoulas
Missing players
C. Roberts
J. Beyer
MidfielderJ. Cullen
H. Mejbri
ForwardZ. Amdouni
L. Dunk
ForwardS. Tzimas
Burnley & Brighton Squad Analysis
The international break was a historic one for Axel Tuanzebe, who scored what turned out to be the goal that will take DR Congo to the World Cup in the summer against Jamaica. He is now set to return to club duty after two months on the sidelines with an Achilles injury.
Zian Flemming scored the Clarets' consolation against Fulham last time out and should start up top. However, Hannibal Mejbri suffered an injury in that match, and Josh Laurent was sent off, which will force Parker into a midfield reshuffle.
Other injury absentees for the hosts this week include Josh Cullen, Jordan Beyer, Connor Roberts and Zeki Amdouni. Mike Tresor has resumed training but is still a few weeks away from rejoining the squad.
Danny Welbeck is one to watch in this clash!
Welbeck was in scintillating form ahead of the international break, scoring four goals in his last four league starts, including a brace in the victory over Liverpool last time out. The 34-year-old has had three weeks to recuperate and should lead the line for the visitors this weekend.
Another major boost for the Seagulls this week is the expected return of Kaoru Mitoma to the starting lineup. The winger was one of the standout players for Japan during the break and scored the winner against England at Wembley less than a fortnight ago.
Lewis Dunk will be forced to sit out this trip due to an accumulation of yellow cards, while Adam Webster and Stefanos Tzimas are the only confirmed injury absentees for the visitors this week.
Most goals and assists
Burnley
Brighton
Z. Flemming
(11 Goals)
D. Welbeck
(13 Goals)
Q. Hartman
(5 Assists)
Y. Minteh
(4 Assists)
Burnley - Brighton Key Points
- Brighton have won four of their last five league games.
- Brighton are unbeaten in their last four league games at Turf Moor.
- Burnley are winless in their last six matches in all competitions.
- Burnley are winless in their last 11 home league games.
- Burnley have conceded the most home goals in the EPL this season (38).
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Our Burnley vs Brighton Prediction
When watching Burnley, it’s clear to see that they give it their all every time they step out, but they simply lack the class and attacking firepower to compete with most teams in the Prem, and are now favourites to suffer the drop this season.
Brighton, on the other hand, were absolutely flying before the international break, and a run of four wins in five has made qualifying for Europe a genuine possibility. This is the ideal fixture for the Seagulls to return to action, and we feel they will secure all three points. Our Burnley vs Brighton prediction is Brighton wins.
Burnley vs Brighton Alternative Predictions
Danny Welbeck to score or assist
Danny Welbeck has scored in each of his last four league starts for Brighton and is one goal away from equaling the club’s record for the most goals in a Premier League season.
BTTS NO
Burnley have failed to score in two of their last three home league games, while each of Brighton’s last four away matches ended with only one team scoring.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Burnley Brighton
| Burnley vs Brighton | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley wins | 4.9 | 5.2 | +6.1% |
| Draw | 3.75 | 4.4 | +17.3% |
| Brighton wins | 1.67 | 1.69 | +1.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Brighton is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 1.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 59.9% and is now 59.2% (-0.7%)
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Burnley vs Brighton - FAQs
The Premier League match between Burnley and Brighton will take place on April 11 at 15:00 (UK time).
The Premier League match between Burnley and Brighton will be played at Turf Moor in Burnley.
The Premier League match between Burnley and Brighton will not be broadcast on TV in the UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our Premier League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
