Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Champions League Predictions
Villarreal will be desperate to clinch their first win of the league phase of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League as they travel to Borussia Dortmund on matchday five. This match on Tuesday between the 14th-placed Die Borussen and the 32nd-placed ‘Yellow Submarine’ in Dortmund comes with our prediction of over 2.5 goals scored.
Ahead of this matchday, Dortmund’s seven points (W2, D1, L1) put them two points outside the top eight but just one point above the 17th-placed Atletico Madrid. Villarreal have everything to play for, as they start this round with only one point (D1, L3) above the bottom two sides.
That puts pressure on Villarreal to go all out for a win before it’s too late for playoff qualification. Interestingly, Dortmund’s recent form has been up and down, while Villarreal bring rich form coming into this fixture. Can the Spaniards capitalise on this and secure a victory? Will the Germans continue their strong record in the Champions League? Read more for our analysis, team news and match predictions.
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The Best Betting Odds for Borussia Dortmund v Villarreal Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.95 | 3.6 | 3.75 |
|
|
1.97 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
|
|
1.91 | 3.6 | 3.96 |
|
|
1.91 | 3.6 | 3.8 |
|
|
1.93 | 3.85 | 4 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal?
Our prediction for the Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal match is: more than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 25/11/2025 between Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 42.87% for a win of Borussia Dortmund against Villarreal with odds of 1.98 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal is 22.15% with odds of 3.97 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 34.98% chance ⭐ for a win of Villarreal vs Borussia Dortmund with odds of 4.27 at 888Starz.
Borussia Dortmund - Villarreal Prediction and Best Odds:
| Borussia Dortmund Villarreal Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund wins | 42.87% | 1.98 at Shangrila |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.4% | 1.95 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score: No | 56.25% | |
| Half-time: Villarreal / Full-time: Borussia Dortmund | 16% | 21 at Bet365 |
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal Form
Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
10
|
11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +6 |
|
35
|
1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -9 |
Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
8 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
31 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Oct 2025 - DFB Pokal
25 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
25 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
4 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
21 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
31 Aug 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
31 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Oct 2025 - DFB Pokal
21 Oct 2025 - Champions League
18 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
8 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
29 Oct 2025 - Copa del Rey
25 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
21 Oct 2025 - Champions League
18 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
27 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
29 Oct 2025 - Copa del Rey
25 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
4 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
23 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
50 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
6 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
22 Jul 2022 - Clubs Friendlies
Borussia Dortmund - Villarreal: Form Analysis
Dortmund were pegged back in a 3-3 home draw against Stuttgart at the weekend, as they failed to protect a two-goal lead. This result keeps them winless in three competitive matches (D2, L1).
The first of those fixtures was a 4-1 away defeat against Manchester City in this competition. That loss was an aberration in this year’s campaign, though, as they won against Athletic Club (4-1) at home and Copenhagen (4-2) away from home, after starting the campaign with a 4-4 away draw at Juventus.
Dortmund won 12 of their last 19 home Champions League games (D6, L1).
Villarreal won 2-1 at home against Mallorca at the weekend to make it four wins from their last five matches (L1). The lone loss in that sequence was a 1-0 away defeat at Pafos.
That defeat was their third loss in four Champions League games this season, with their lone point coming in a 2-2 home draw against Juventus. Worryingly for the visiting fans, both their away matches in this campaign ended in 1-0 defeats, against Tottenham and Pafos.
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Borussia Dortmund against Villarreal Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
A. Meyer
S. Ostrzinski
DefenderJ. Ryerson
R. Bensebaini
F. Mane
MidfielderJ. Bellingham
C. Chukwuemeka
P. Gross
E. Can
C. Campbell
ForwardF. Silva
J. Duranville
A. Tenas
DefenderP. Navarro
R. Marin
A. Altimira
MidfielderD. Parejo
M. Solomon
ForwardA. Pedraza
A. Moleiro
G. Mikautadze
I. Akhomach
G. Moreno
A. Perez
Missing players
L. Costa
W. Kambwala
Borussia Dortmund & Villarreal Squad Analysis
Ramy Bensebaini missed Dortmund’s weekend game and remains doubtful for this fixture. He joins the likes of Patrick Drewes, Salih Ozcan, and Niklas Sule as the unavailable players for the hosts.
They will line up in their usual 3-4-3 formation with the exciting Serhou Guirassy leading the line. He has six goals to his name in the season, while Karim Adeyemi excelled on the flanks with four goals.
Felix Nmecha has three goals in the Champions League this season.
Santiago Mourino missed Villarreal’s weekend game and is likely to be out for this fixture too. The visitors will also be without Pau Cabanes, Logan Costa, and Willy Kambwala.
Villarreal are likely to continue with their 4-4-2 formation, which means Gerard Moreno and Ayoze Perez could lead their forward line. Moreno has four goals in his last five matches but is yet to score in this competition this year. The exciting Alberto Moleiro is the one to watch out for, as the midfielder has two goals in his last four games and has four goals this season for the club.
Most goals and assists
Borussia Dortmund
Villarreal
F. Nmecha
(3 Goals)
,
J. Brandt
(3 Goals)
, 
G. Mikautadze
(1 Goals)
, 
R. Veiga
(1 Goals)
, 
S. Comesana
(1 Goals)
, 
T. Oluwaseyi
(1 Goals)
M. Sabitzer
(2 Assists)
,
K. Adeyemi
(2 Assists)
I. Akhomach
(2 Assists)
Borussia Dortmund - Villarreal Key Points
- Dortmund’s last seven Champions League matches produced over 2.5 goals.
- This season in the Champions League, Dortmund’s four matches averaged six goals per match.
- Two of Dortmund’s latest three games saw at least five goals scored.
- Villarreal scored 2+ goals in four of their last five matches.
- Villarreal conceded exactly two goals in two of their last three Champions League matches.
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Our Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal Prediction
Dortmund and Villarreal come into this game in contrasting forms, as the German side are winless in three games, while the Spanish visitors have won four of their last five. Continuing that trend is vital for Villarreal, who start this round in the Champions League closer to the bottom. Their hopes of rising up the table towards knockout places depend on halting Dortmund’s run in this competition, which has been impressive.
The German hosts have been entertainers in their Champions League matches, which could continue here. Our Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal prediction is more than 2.5 goals.
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal - Other Interesting Predictions
Serhou Guirassy to score anytime
Serhou Guirassy failed to score in his last three appearances but has ten goals in his previous eight home Champions League matches for Dortmund. The home fans will hope he continues that form here.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Borussia Dortmund Villarreal
| Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund wins | 1.83 | 1.98 | +8.2% |
| Draw | 3.7 | 3.97 | +7.3% |
| Villarreal wins | 4.3 | 4.27 | -0.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Borussia Dortmund is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 8.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 54.6% and is now 50.5% (-4.1%)
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Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal - FAQs
The Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal UEFA Champions League match is set to be shown on TNT Sports and TNT Sports Ultimate TV channels in the UK. In Germany, DAZN and Amazon Prime are the official broadcasters, while in Spain, Telefonica has the distribution rights.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our UEFA Champions League Livescore page!
This is the first time these sides are playing in an official match. They did play out two friendlies in the past, but both were before August 2024.
Dortmund won’t mind facing a Spanish side, looking at how they won three of their last four Champions League home matches against La Liga teams (W3, L1).
Villarreal are at the other end of the spectrum, as they failed to win their last four trips in UEFA competitions to Germany (D3, L1), although the last three have been draws.
Let’s start with Borussia Dortmund. They will next face – in that order – Bodo/Glimt (home), Tottenham Hotspur (away), and Inter Milan (home).
Villarreal will play Copenhagen (home), Ajax (home), and Bayer Leverkusen (away).
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
