Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga
Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
Borussia Dortmund will look to pile more pressure on the relegation-threatened St. Pauli when the sides meet on Saturday in a matchday 18 fixture in the Bundesliga. This match in Dortmund between the second-placed ‘Prussians’ and the 17th-placed Kiezkicker comes with our prediction of St. Pauli +2 European Handicap.
The hosts have 36 points from 17 matches (W10, D6, L1) and start this round four points ahead of Leipzig, although 11 points behind runaway leaders Bayern. St. Pauli’s 12 points from 16 games (W3, D3, L10) put them two points outside the safety zone.
Dortmund strolled past Werder on Tuesday for a 3-0 win, extending their unbeaten run in the league to ten matches (W6, D4). They are consolidating their hold over the second spot with a four-point lead over the next two sides.
Key to their charge is their home form, as BVB have won six of their eight home league games this season (D2), each victory with a clean sheet.
St. Pauli lost 2-1 away at Wolfsburg through a late goal for a tenth defeat in their last 13 league games (W1, D2). However, those five points were won in their last four games, with the visitors showing resilience in recent weeks.
On the road, St. Pauli were beaten in six of their last eight league trips (D2) although scoring in four.
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The Best Betting Odds for Borussia Dortmund v St. Pauli Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.33 | 4.75 | 10 |
|
|
1.34 | 5.4 | 10 |
|
|
1.3 | 5.2 | 10.5 |
|
|
1.31 | 5 | 10 |
|
|
1.33 | 5.4 | 11 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Borussia Dortmund and St. Pauli?
Our prediction for the Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli match is: St. Pauli +2 European Handicap.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 17/01/2026 between Borussia Dortmund and St. Pauli in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 58.32% for a win of Borussia Dortmund against St. Pauli with odds of 1.34 at Stake.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli is 25.96% with odds of 5.64 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 15.71% chance ⭐ for a win of St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund with odds of 12.2 at 888Starz.
Borussia Dortmund - St. Pauli Prediction and Best Odds:
| Borussia Dortmund St. Pauli Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund wins | 58.32% | 1.34 at Stake |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.95% | 1.85 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score | 55.21% | 2.32 at Betsson |
| Half-time / Full-time : Borussia Dortmund/Borussia Dortmund | 26.74% | 1.91 at Bet365 |
Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli Form
Borussia Dortmund and St. Pauli's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
39 | 18 | 11 | 6 | 1 | +18 |
|
18
|
12 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -15 |
Borussia Dortmund and St. Pauli Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
9 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
19 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
14 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
7 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
19 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
7 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
2 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
29 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
8 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
31 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
4 Jan 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
21 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
13 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
2 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Jan 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
13 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
23 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Oct 2025 - DFB Pokal
19 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
2 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
29 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
9 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
25 %
25 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
23 Aug 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
18 Oct 2024 - Bundesliga
18 Jan 2022 - DFB Pokal
Borussia Dortmund against St. Pauli Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Substitutes
A. Meyer
DefenderF. Mane
Y. Couto
N. Sule
MidfielderS. Ozcan
C. Chukwuemeka
J. Duranville
M. Beier
S. Guirassy
E. Gazdov
DefenderF. Stevens
T. Ando
M. Saliakas
J. Robatsch
MidfielderL. Oppie
R. Jade-Jones
A. Ceesay
O. Afolayan
Missing players
A. Anselmino
D. Nemeth
MidfielderJ. Irvine
ForwardD. Sinani
A. Hountondji
Most goals and assists
Borussia Dortmund
St. Pauli
J. Ryerson
(5 Assists)
J. Fujita
(3 Assists)
Borussia Dortmund - St. Pauli Key Points
- St. Pauli on +2 European handicap in five of their last seven Bundesliga matches ended up being a successful pick.
- Six of St. Pauli’s last seven league matches saw them return success on +2 European handicap.
- Dortmund won six of their eight home league matches this season.
- Dortmund couldn’t cover -2 European Handicap in nine of their last 12 Bundesliga matches.
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Our Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli Prediction
Dortmund consolidated their second place behind runaway leaders Bayern Munich, thanks to an unbeaten ten-game league run. The hosts have been improving on the defensive front too, managing to shut opponents out in six of their eight home league games this season. St. Pauli are at the opposite end of the spectrum, struggling to get out of the relegation zone. That said, the visitors pushed their opponents hard in the last four rounds and could continue that here.
The hosts are still favourites, but our Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli prediction is St. Pauli +2 European Handicap.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Borussia Dortmund St. Pauli
| Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund wins | 1.36 | 1.34 | -1.5% |
| Draw | 5 | 5.64 | +12.8% |
| St. Pauli wins | 9.6 | 12.2 | +27.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Borussia Dortmund is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 1.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 73.5% and is now 74.6% (1.1%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
