Birmingham vs Leeds Prediction & Betting Tips - FA Cup
England - FA Cup
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by Ian John | in FA Cup Predictions
There's big FA Cup Fourth Round action on Sunday with the potential of an upset as in form Birmingham City host Leeds United at St. Andrews. The Blues good home form this season has been the bedrock of a decent Championship campaign, whereas the visiting Whites strong Premier League form is built on their excellent home record. What will be our prediction for the full time score in this match?
Birmingham City are tenth in the Championship table after playing 32 games amassing 46 points, just one point outside the playoff spots. Leeds United have played 26 Premier League games, securing 30 points to lie 15th in the EPL.
Birmingham reached the fourth round thanks to a 3-2 away win over Cambridge United. Their recent form is strong, unbeaten in eight which includes a 2-0 away win over Oxford United, a 2-1 home win over Leicester and in midweek they drew 0-0 at home to West Brom. All those results came in the Championship.
Leeds defeated Derby County 3-1 in the Third Round to reach this stage and their form since has been good with just one defeat in their next five games. That came in a 4-0 home loss to Arsenal, but since then the Lilywhites have earned a 3-1 home win over Nottingham Forest and in midweek came from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 at Chelsea.
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Birmingham v Leeds Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.35 | 3.5 | 2.11 |
|
|
3.78 | 3.6 | 1.95 |
|
|
3.3 | 3.46 | 2.1 |
|
|
3.5 | 3.6 | 2.01 |
|
|
3.45 | 3.5 | 2.04 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Birmingham and Leeds?
Our prediction for the Birmingham vs Leeds match is: A Draw.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 15/02/2026 between Birmingham and Leeds in FA Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 30.84% for a win of Birmingham against Leeds with odds of 3.78 at Melbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Birmingham vs Leeds is 47.37% with odds of 3.65 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 21.79% chance ⭐ for a win of Leeds vs Birmingham with odds of 2.2 at Tonybet.
Birmingham - Leeds Prediction and Best Odds:
| Birmingham Leeds Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 47.37% | 3.65 at Tonybet |
| Under 2.5 | 53.89% | 3 at LSbet |
| Both Team To Score | 71.67% | |
| Half-time : Birmingham / Full-time : Leeds | 17.59% | 14 at LSbet |
Birmingham vs Leeds Form
Birmingham and Leeds Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Feb 2026 - Championship
7 Feb 2026 - Championship
31 Jan 2026 - Championship
24 Jan 2026 - Championship
20 Jan 2026 - Championship
17 Jan 2026 - Championship
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Feb 2026 - Championship
7 Feb 2026 - Championship
24 Jan 2026 - Championship
4 Jan 2026 - Championship
29 Dec 2025 - Championship
26 Dec 2025 - Championship
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Jan 2026 - Championship
20 Jan 2026 - Championship
17 Jan 2026 - Championship
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
1 Jan 2026 - Championship
20 Dec 2025 - Championship
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
6 Feb 2026 - Premier League
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
26 Jan 2026 - Premier League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Feb 2026 - Premier League
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
6 Dec 2025 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
26 Jan 2026 - Premier League
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
1 Jan 2026 - Premier League
28 Dec 2025 - Premier League
Birmingham vs Leeds Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
60 %
0 %
40 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
1 Jan 2024 - Championship
12 Aug 2023 - Championship
29 Dec 2019 - Championship
6 Apr 2019 - Championship
22 Sept 2018 - Championship
Birmingham against Leeds Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
J. Beadle
B. Mayo
DefenderB. Burrell
P. Neumann
B. Zaid
K. Fujimoto
P. Roberts
I. Osman
M. Ducksch
K. Darlow
DefenderE. Ampadu
J. Bogle
J. Rodon
S. Byram
MidfielderI. Gruev
ForwardJ. Piroe
B. Aaronson
D. Calvert-Lewin
Missing players
E. Laird
P. Struijk
MidfielderA. Stach
Birmingham - Leeds Key Points
- Birmingham are unbeaten in their last eight games in all competitions (W5, D3).
- Leeds have lost just two of their last 14 games in all competitions (W5, D7).
- Leeds have drawn four of their last five away games in the EPL.
- Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 11 games at home, winning six, drawing five.
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Our Birmingham vs Leeds Prediction
Our prediction for the Birmingham City vs. Leeds United FA Cup Fourth Round match is: A Draw.
Is there a potential FA Cup upset on the cards at St. Andrews? Birmingham have lost just one home game all season, Leeds have won just one away game in the EPL all season. However, both teams are in good form at present, although both have been involved in numerous draws in those runs. As such, we think backing the draw at 90 minutes is the bet to back here.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Birmingham Leeds
| Birmingham vs Leeds | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham wins | 3.95 | 3.78 | -4.3% |
| Draw | 3.5 | 3.65 | +4.3% |
| Leeds wins | 1.87 | 2.2 | +17.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- A draw is the most likely outcome
- The odds for this bet have increased by 4.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 28.6% and is now 27.4% (-1.2%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
