Birmingham vs Derby County Prediction & Betting Tips - Championship
England - Championship
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by Steve Ashfield | in Championship Predictions
Birmingham City suffered another away loss at the weekend. They are 14th in the Championship but will hope to continue their good home form when hosting 12th-placed Derby County on Boxing Day. Read our match prediction below.
City lost 3-0 at Sheffield United on Saturday, playing with ten men from the 18th minute onwards. That was their eighth away league loss of the season but it's been a different story at St Andrews with six wins from ten games and just one loss.
The Blues have gone four league games without a win with just one point being earned. Their most recent home league match saw them held to a 1-1 draw by Charlton Athletic. Seven of their last eight matches have seen both teams score.
Derby County are two points ahead of their opponents and only four behind the final promotion play-off position. The weekend saw them held to a 1-1 home draw by Portsmouth. A late own goal rescued a point for them.
County are unbeaten in their last three league fixtures. On the road, they have the third best record in the Championship with five wins. Four of their last five away league games have seen both teams score and we tip that stat to come up here.
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Birmingham v Derby County Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.89 | 3.4 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.98 | 3.32 | 4.04 |
|
|
1.98 | 3.32 | 4.04 |
|
|
1.91 | 3.3 | 4 |
|
|
1.91 | 3.35 | 4.1 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Birmingham and Derby County?
Our prediction for the Birmingham vs Derby County match is: both teams to score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 26/12/2025 between Birmingham and Derby County in Championship :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 45.79% for a win of Birmingham against Derby County with odds of 1.98 at Melbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Birmingham vs Derby County is 18.09% with odds of 3.45 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 36.11% chance ⭐ for a win of Derby County vs Birmingham with odds of 4.3 at LSbet.
Birmingham - Derby County Prediction and Best Odds:
| Birmingham Derby County Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham wins | 45.79% | 1.98 at Melbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.69% | 2.26 at Betwinner |
| Both Team To Score | 67.92% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Birmingham/Birmingham | 19.73% | 3.1 at Bet365 |
Birmingham vs Derby County Form
Birmingham and Derby County's standings in the Championship
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8
|
69 | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | +8 |
|
10
|
64 | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | +1 |
Birmingham and Derby County Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Dec 2025 - Championship
13 Dec 2025 - Championship
9 Dec 2025 - Championship
6 Dec 2025 - Championship
1 Dec 2025 - Championship
26 Nov 2025 - Championship
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Dec 2025 - Championship
1 Dec 2025 - Championship
22 Nov 2025 - Championship
4 Nov 2025 - Championship
1 Nov 2025 - Championship
18 Oct 2025 - Championship
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Dec 2025 - Championship
9 Dec 2025 - Championship
6 Dec 2025 - Championship
26 Nov 2025 - Championship
8 Nov 2025 - Championship
25 Oct 2025 - Championship
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Dec 2025 - Championship
15 Dec 2025 - Championship
10 Dec 2025 - Championship
6 Dec 2025 - Championship
29 Nov 2025 - Championship
25 Nov 2025 - Championship
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Dec 2025 - Championship
10 Dec 2025 - Championship
6 Dec 2025 - Championship
22 Nov 2025 - Championship
4 Nov 2025 - Championship
25 Oct 2025 - Championship
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Dec 2025 - Championship
29 Nov 2025 - Championship
25 Nov 2025 - Championship
8 Nov 2025 - Championship
1 Nov 2025 - Championship
18 Oct 2025 - Championship
Birmingham vs Derby County Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
40 %
40 %
20 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
30 Jan 2022 - Championship
10 Sept 2021 - Championship
24 Apr 2021 - Championship
19 Apr 2019 - Championship
27 Dec 2016 - Championship
Birmingham against Derby County Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Substitutes
R. Allsop
DefenderP. Neumann
A. Sampsted
K. Fujimoto
W. Willumsson
L. Koumas
G. Wynne
ForwardL. Dykes
K. Furuhashi
R. O'Donnell
DefenderC. Forsyth
C. Nelson
O. Eames
E. Adams
L. Salvesen
C. Blackett Taylor
K. Jackson
A. Weimann
Missing players
L. Buchanan
Most goals and assists
Birmingham
Derby County
J. Stansfield
(10 Goals)
, 
M. Ducksch
(10 Goals)
C. Morris
(12 Goals)
J. Stansfield
(7 Assists)
J. Ward
(9 Assists)
Birmingham - Derby County Key Points
- Both teams have scored in six of the last eight games played between these two clubs.
- Both teams had scored in seven consecutive Birmingham games before they lost 3-0 on Saturday.
- Four of the last six Birmingham games have seen both teams score.
- Both teams have scored in four of Derby's last five away league games.
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Our Birmingham vs Derby County Prediction
Birmingham City can go above Derby County if they win this Christmas Eve clash. Away form is hindering their season but City are only six points behind the promotion play-off positions. Only one home league game has been lost this season by the Blues.
Derby County struggled at home on Saturday but are in good form on the road. The Rams are looking for their sixth away league victory of the season. An open game looks likely and our Birmingham v Derby County prediction is both teams to score.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Birmingham Derby County
| Birmingham vs Derby County | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham wins | 1.8 | 1.98 | +10.0% |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.45 | +0.9% |
| Derby County wins | 4.57 | 4.3 | -5.9% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Birmingham is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 10.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 55.6% and is now 50.5% (-5.1%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Birmingham vs. Derby County game!
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
