Benin vs Senegal Prediction & Betting Tips - AFCON
Africa - AFCON
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by Ita Emmanuel | in AFCON Predictions
Group leaders Senegal face third-placed Benin in this 2025 AFCON Group D final round of matches on Tuesday. The two teams, separated by just one point, head into this game with their knockout-stage hopes on the line. Let's get into the details and our prediction.
Senegal's hopes of sealing an early round-of-16 spot at the 2025 AFCON were put on hold following a disappointing draw against DR Congo in their second group match on Friday. The 2021 champions and two-time runners-up remain top favorites to win the competition this time after a shocking round-of-16 exit in the last edition. However, they will have to overcome the Benin challenge to progress to the next round.
Benin, making their fifth appearance in an AFCON final, secured their first-ever victory in the tournament on Friday against Botswana to keep their hopes of reaching the knockout stage alive. The Cheetahs have failed to win any of their previous nine encounters against Senegal. Can they turn things around in Tuesday's clash? Read on for detailed analysis and key stats.
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The Best Betting Odds for Benin v Senegal Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
12 | 6 | 1.25 |
|
|
13 | 5.5 | 1.25 |
|
|
12 | 5 | 1.25 |
|
|
12.5 | 5.2 | 1.27 |
|
|
13 | 5.75 | 1.22 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Benin and Senegal?
Our prediction for the Benin vs Senegal match is: between 2–4 total goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 30/12/2025 between Benin and Senegal in AFCON :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 26.47% for a win of Benin against Senegal with odds of 13.5 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Benin vs Senegal is 22.63% with odds of 6 at Bet365.
- Our prediction model gives a 50.9% chance ⭐ for a win of Senegal vs Benin with odds of 1.29 at Stake.
Benin - Senegal Prediction and Best Odds:
| Benin Senegal Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Senegal wins | 50.9% | 1.29 at Stake |
| Under 2.5 | 55.73% | 1.95 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 33.33% | 2.63 at Bet365 |
| Half-time : Benin / Full-time : Senegal | 18.68% | 23 at Bet365 |
Benin vs Senegal Form
Benin and Senegal's standings in the AFCON
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
|
3
|
3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 |
Benin and Senegal Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Dec 2025 - AFCON
23 Dec 2025 - AFCON
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
14 Oct 2025 - World Cup
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Dec 2025 - AFCON
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
14 Nov 2024 - AFCON
11 Oct 2024 - AFCON
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Dec 2025 - AFCON
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
14 Oct 2025 - World Cup
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
20 Mar 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Dec 2025 - AFCON
23 Dec 2025 - AFCON
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
14 Oct 2025 - World Cup
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Dec 2025 - AFCON
23 Dec 2025 - AFCON
14 Oct 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
12 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
5 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
29 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
26 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
Benin vs Senegal Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
25 %
75 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
26 Mar 2024 - International Friendlies
17 Jun 2023 - AFCON
4 Jun 2022 - AFCON
10 Jul 2019 - AFCON
Benin - Senegal: Form Analysis
Senegal opened their 2025 AFCON campaign with a commanding victory over Botswana. On-loan Chelsea forward Nicolas Jackson bagged a brace to inspire the Teranga Lions to a 3–0 win against the Zebras. They drew 1-1 against DR Congo in their second group match, thanks to Sadio Mane's 69th-minute equalizer.
Notably, the last time Senegal suffered defeat in a competitive fixture was in the 2023 AFCON Round of 16 against hosts and eventual champions Ivory Coast. They have won six of their last seven competitive games, drawing one (excluding African Nations Championship results).
Senegal are unbeaten in their last eight AFCON group-stage matches, winning six and drawing two
Benin fell 1–0 to DR Congo in their 2025 AFCON opener. Theo Bongonda's 16th-minute strike proved decisive, condemning the Cheetahs to their second consecutive defeat in a competitive fixture.
However, they were able to bounce back in their second group match, defeating Botswana 1–0, courtesy of Yohan Roche's first-half goal. They held Senegal to a 1–1 draw in their last competitive meeting, but have lost four of their last five competitive clashes with the Teranga Lions.
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Benin against Senegal Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Benin & Senegal Squad Analysis
Senegal will parade a largely unchanged squad from the one that faced Botswana with Mendy returning on goal, while Kalidou Koulibaly and Moussa Niakhate lead the defense. Head coach Pape Thiaw has stuck to the 'Gueye duo' (Idrissa Gueye and Pape Gueye) in deep midfield and the pair is expected to return to the starting eleven.
Idrissa Gueye, the most-capped Senegal footballer, will make his 125th appearance for the team against Benin
Key attacker Sadio Mane opened his 2025 AFCON goal account against DR Congo and is expected to start in attacking midfield alongside Everton star Iliman Ndiaye, both likely to line up behind lone striker Nicolas Jackson in the attack. Ismaila Sarr is the only doubt for the game after being subbed off versus DR Congo due to apparent injury.
Gernot Rohr made several changes to the losing squad against DR Congo and won the Botswana clash. He is likely to stick to the new winning lineup with Marcel Dandjinou returning to the goalpost, while Mohamed Tijani continues at full-back.
Aiyegun Tosin survived Rohr's tactical changes in the Botswana game and is expected to return in the attack alongside Junior Olaitan and Steve Mounie, who replaced Rodolfo Aloko and Jodel Dossou, respectively.
Most goals and assists
Benin
Senegal
C. Ndiaye
(2 Goals)
,
N. Jackson
(2 Goals)
C. Sabaly
(1 Assists)
,
I. Jakobs
(1 Assists)
,
I. Sarr
(1 Assists)
,
K. Diatta
(1 Assists)
,
S. Mane
(1 Assists)
Benin - Senegal Key Points
- Benin have conceded in their last five competitive matches against Senegal.
- Benin’s last two competitive games against Senegal have ended with 2–4 total goals.
- Senegal’s two 2025 AFCON matches have produced between two and four total goals.
- Senegal have found the net in their last seven competitive games (excluding African Nations Championship results).
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Our Benin vs Senegal Prediction
The two teams have everything to play for with Group D widely open ahead of this concluding fixture. Senegal, sitting 73 places above Benin in the FIFA rankings and boasting more quality than the Cheetahs, are the favorites to secure victory.
They have scored in each of their last seven competitive games and in their last five matchups with Benin. However, we expect a moderate scoreline in Tuesday's encounter given both team's recent results as highlighted in our key points. Our Benin vs Senegal prediction is between 2–4 total goals.
Benin vs Senegal - Other Interesting Predictions
Sadio Mane scores or assists
Sadio Mane is a top name to watch out for in this match. He has scored in three of his last four games for Senegal and has found the net four times, including a hat-trick, in two of his last three appearances against Benin.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Benin Senegal
| Benin vs Senegal | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benin wins | 11 | 12 | +9.1% |
| Draw | 6.5 | 6 | -7.7% |
| Senegal wins | 1.22 | 1.25 | +2.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Senegal is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 2.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 82.0% and is now 80.0% (-2.0%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
