Benfica Lisbon vs Real Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Kennedy Kechula | in Champions League Predictions
Real Madrid make the short trip to Portugal on Tuesday for the first leg of their Champions League knockout round playoff tie with Benfica. Both teams were unable to make it through to the last 16 round automatically after the conclusion of the League Phase. We have in this preview, two predictions of the match.
This will mark the second meeting between the two sides in this season’s competition. In dramatic fashion, Benfica earned a famous win over Real in the final round of the league phase. The telling goal in the encounter was scored by the goalkeeper to see Benfica book this slot after finishing 24th.
While it was a sweet result for Benfica, it meant Real finish ninth and missed out of automatic qualification to the next round. Los Blancos will hope for better organization this time, having wrapped up their Matchday 8 encounter with nine men. In four meetings between these sides Benfica posted three wins and a loss.
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Benfica Lisbon v Real Madrid Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.1 | 3.7 | 2.24 |
|
|
3.17 | 3.58 | 2.18 |
|
|
3.13 | 3.58 | 2.21 |
|
|
3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 |
|
|
3.15 | 3.6 | 2.2 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Benfica Lisbon and Real Madrid?
Our prediction for the Benfica Lisbon vs Real Madrid match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 17/02/2026 between Benfica Lisbon and Real Madrid in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 57.15% for a win of Benfica Lisbon against Real Madrid with odds of 3.25 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Benfica Lisbon vs Real Madrid is 7.04% with odds of 3.8 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 35.81% chance ⭐ for a win of Real Madrid vs Benfica Lisbon with odds of 2.28 at 888Starz.
Benfica Lisbon - Real Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:
| Benfica Lisbon Real Madrid Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica Lisbon wins | 57.15% | 3.25 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.27% | 1.88 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 70.83% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Benfica Lisbon/Benfica Lisbon | 23.88% | 5 at Bet365 |
Benfica Lisbon vs Real Madrid Form
Benfica Lisbon and Real Madrid Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
8 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
1 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
25 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
25 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
7 Jan 2026 - Portugal League Cup
3 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
22 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
1 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
14 Jan 2026 - Taca de Portugal
28 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
8 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
1 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
24 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
1 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
4 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
20 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
24 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
14 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
11 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
8 Jan 2026 - Spanish Super Cup
Benfica Lisbon vs Real Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
Benfica Lisbon - Real Madrid: Form Analysis
Benfica needed a huge performance to avoid elimination from the Champions League when they hosted Real three weeks ago. Jose Mourinho’s men were sitting out of the playoff places, having managed just two wins in seven games.
But on Matchday 8, they would get their biggest result in recent years in the competition, coming from behind to win 4-2 and taking the final playoff spot. That win is part of a five-game unbeaten streak that the Reds take into this first leg. Benfica have won four times in this dominant run, with the recent victory, a 2-1 win away to Santa Clara this weekend to keep their domestic title hopes alive.
Benfica have four wins in 26 against Spanish teams.
Real Madrid had won three games in a row before that crushing loss in Lisbon. They are back in the Portuguese capital, having responded to that loss with three successive wins. The Spanish giants will hope that history doesn't repeat itself as they seek to take an advantage back home.
Under Coach Alvaro Arbeloa, Los Merengues have played eight games and won six times. Real are coming off a 4-1 thumping of Real Sociedad at home that saw them return to the summit of the Spanish La Liga table. The Vikings only needed a point to qualify directly for the round of 16, as they had won five of seven matches when they arrived in Lisbon back in January. They would finish the League Phase in ninth place.
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Benfica Lisbon against Real Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
D. Ferreira
DefenderA. Silva
S. Lopes Cabral
A. Bah
MidfielderE. Barrenechea
G. Sudakov
R. Rios
M. Silva
F. Ivanovic
ForwardA. Cabral
D. Lukebakio
Bruma
A. Lunin
DefenderF. Garcia
J. Martinez
F. Mendy
D. Alaba
D. Carvajal
T. Pitarch Pinar
J. Cestero
D. Ceballos
ForwardG. Garcia
F. Mastantuono
B. Diaz
Missing players
E. Militao
R. Asencio
ForwardRodrygo
Benfica Lisbon & Real Madrid Squad Analysis
Benfica’s hopes for this game will be hampered by their injury list. They have five players in the treatment room. Alex Bah, Nuno Felix, Richard Rios, Samuel Soares and Joao Veloso are all set to miss this match. Goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin scored a famous stoppage-time goal in the last meeting with Real.
He is available, but his first task will be to thwart Real’s rampant attack. Andreas Schjelderup scored twice against Madrid last month to move to three goals in this season’s CL. Vangelis Pavlidis was also on target in that game, and the two forwards will be key for Benfica this week.
Mbappe’s 13 league phase goals was a new record in this competition.
Real Madrid also have a long list of absentees for this trip to Lisbon. Jude Bellingham headlines that, while Rodrygo is suspended following a red card in the 4-2 loss to Benfica in the league phase. The three will be big misses for the visitors, but Alvaro Arbeloa has a deep squad from which to choose.
For Benfica, Kylian Mbappe will be a man of interest. He leads all other scorers in the UCL this season with 13 goals. In total, the French forward has netted 38 goals this term. Brahim Diaz and Vinicius Junior will most likely line up in attack alongside Mbappe. Vinicius has scored eight goals this season.
Most goals and assists
Benfica Lisbon
Real Madrid
V. Pavlidis
(2 Goals)
, 
L. Barreiro
(2 Goals)
, 
A. Schjelderup
(2 Goals)
K. Mbappe
(15 Goals)
G. Sudakov
(2 Assists)
,
V. Pavlidis
(2 Assists)
Vinicius Junior
(6 Assists)
Benfica Lisbon - Real Madrid Key Points
- Mbappe has scored 13 goals in the Champions League.
- Real have scored at least once in 15 consecutive matches.
- Both teams scored in the last meeting between Madrid and Benfica.
- Both Madrid and Benfica have conceded 12 goals in the Champions League.
- Benfica have failed to score just once in the 18 matches they hosted this season.
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Our Benfica Lisbon vs Real Madrid Prediction
Our prediction for Benfica v Real Madrid is BTTS. The last match between these two produced six goals with both teams scoring at least twice. The chances of seeing both teams get on the scoresheet remain high, given the magnitude of this tie. This is the first match of a two-legged knockout round tie.
Benfica and Real are also two free-flowing attacking teams. Real have scored 21 goals in eight CL matches and haven’t failed to find the net in 15 consecutive games. Benfica, on their part, are at their lethal best when competing at home.
Benfica Lisbon vs Real Madrid Alternative Predictions
Kylian Mbappe to score
For our second prediction, we are picking Kylian Mbappe to score. The Frenchman is the leading scorer in the UCL this term with 13 goals and has netted almost 40 times for Madrid across all competitions. Mbappe scored a brace in the most recent meeting with Benfica.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Benfica Lisbon Real Madrid
| Benfica Lisbon vs Real Madrid | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica Lisbon wins | 3.84 | 3.25 | -15.4% |
| Draw | 4.56 | 3.8 | -16.7% |
| Real Madrid wins | 1.87 | 2.28 | +21.9% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Benfica Lisbon is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 15.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 26.0% and is now 30.8% (4.7%)
Benfica Lisbon vs Real Madrid - FAQs
This match will be played on Tuesday, 17 February.
This match will be played at Benfica’s Estádio da Luz in Lisbon, Portugal.
Fans in Spain can watch this match live on Telefonica, while in Portugal the match will be aired on Sport TV and DAZN. Detailed updates of the same and other Champions League matches will be available on Sportytrader.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
