Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Steve Ashfield | in Champions League Predictions
Arsenal travel to Bayer Leverkusen for the first leg of this last 16 tie. Can Arsenal make it nine consecutive wins in this season's Champions League? Leverkusen face a tough task preventing that happening. Read our match prediction below.
Bayer Leverkusen only finished 16th in the league phase, ten points behind their opponents in this game. They probably still have nightmares over their 7-2 home loss to last season's UCL winners PSG. The Factory XI have recovered well but can they match their in-form opponents?
Arsenal are still chasing a quadruple and are on a long unbeaten run at present. As we saw last season when it was introduced, finishing top of the league phase doesn't mean a great deal when it comes to the knockout stages. PSG were 15th in the league phase but went on to win the final. The Gunners won the league phase and will hope to avoid the fate of Liverpool who did that last season and lost at this stage.
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Bayer Leverkusen v Arsenal Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6 | 4.5 | 1.54 |
|
|
5.95 | 4.3 | 1.53 |
|
|
5.8 | 4.3 | 1.54 |
|
|
6 | 4.5 | 1.5 |
|
|
6 | 4.5 | 1.5 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Bayer Leverkusen and Arsenal?
Our prediction for the Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal match is: Arsenal wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 11/03/2026 between Bayer Leverkusen and Arsenal in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 24.41% for a win of Bayer Leverkusen against Arsenal with odds of 6.25 at LSbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal is 26.09% with odds of 4.6 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 49.51% chance ⭐ for a win of Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen with odds of 1.6 at 888Starz.
Bayer Leverkusen - Arsenal Prediction and Best Odds:
| Bayer Leverkusen Arsenal Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 49.51% | 1.6 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.86% | 1.95 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score: No | 52.08% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Arsenal/Arsenal | 21.82% | 2.3 at Bet365 |
Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal Form
Bayer Leverkusen and Arsenal Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
4 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Feb 2026 - Champions League
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
18 Feb 2026 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Feb 2026 - Champions League
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
3 Feb 2026 - DFB Pokal
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
24 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
4 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
18 Feb 2026 - Champions League
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
22 Feb 2026 - Premier League
18 Feb 2026 - Premier League
15 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
15 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
3 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
22 Feb 2026 - Premier League
18 Feb 2026 - Premier League
12 Feb 2026 - Premier League
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
7 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
Bayer Leverkusen - Arsenal: Form Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen only won three of their games in the league phase. They did well to qualify though after their disastrous 7-2 home loss to PSG early on in the league phase. The Knockout Play-Off round saw them beat Olympiacos 2-0 on aggregate with both the goals coming in the away first leg.
The Black and Reds have only won one their five home games in this season's UCL. That was a 3-0 victory over Villarreal but that thrashing by PSG remains their only home defeat in this competition with draws against PSV, Newcastle and Olympiacos.
Leverkusen are sixth in the German Bundesliga and are unbeaten in six home games but have drawn the last two.
The Gunners are in top form.
The German club had kept five straight home clean sheets before conceding against Mainz. Preventing Arsenal scoring in this game is going to be a tough task though. The Londoners are top of the English Premier League, in the Carabao Cup final and the last eight of the FA Cup.
The Gunners won all eight of their games in the league phase with 23 goals scored and only four conceded. They won their four away fixtures in convincing fashion by a combined score of 11-1. Only PSG have beaten them in their last 18 UCL matches.
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Bayer Leverkusen against Arsenal Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
J. Omlin
N. Lomb
DefenderT. Oermann
MidfielderE. Fernandez
M. Tillman
J. Hofmann
A. Tape
ForwardM. Culbreath
P. Schick
K. Ranson
K. Arrizabalaga
DefenderC. Mosquera
M. Salmon
B. White
R. Calafiori
MidfielderM. Lewis-Skelly
C. Norgaard
M. Dowman
ForwardK. Havertz
N. Madueke
G. Jesus
Missing players
M. Flekken
DefenderL. Vazquez
L. Bade
Arthur
ForwardN. Tella
E. Ben Seghir
M. Odegaard
M. Merino
ForwardL. Trossard
Bayer Leverkusen & Arsenal Squad Analysis
Arsenal's weekend fixture was an FA Cup tie so several of their top players were either rested or benched. You can fully expect Arteta to restore them for this Champions League game away to Bayer Leverkusen.
There are some injury problems though with William Saliba, Martin Odegaard and Ben White all doubts for this game. Eberechi Eze has returned to form in recent weeks and he's expected to start the game with Leandro Trossard picking up an injury at the weekend.
Piero Hincapie is on loan from Leverkusen but eligible to play so he'll be making his return to the club this Wednesday. Arsenal have won all of their away Champions League games this season and will be confident of securing a fifth success.
Schick is a doubt for Leverkusen.
It's that time of the season when most clubs seem to have long injury lists. Bayer Leverkusen are no exception and have several doubts ahead of this Champions League game. Key striker Patrik Schick is a doubt as are Mark Flekken, Loic Bade and Arthur.
Bayer have been impressive defensively of late and will be hoping for another strong performance from Jarell Quansah. Whether they can keep out in-form Arsenal is a major doubt though as Leverkusen will press forward to try and get some lead to take to the Emirates.
Most goals and assists
Bayer Leverkusen
Arsenal
A. Grimaldo
(4 Goals)
, 
P. Schick
(4 Goals)
G. Martinelli
(6 Goals)
A. Grimaldo
(3 Assists)
L. Trossard
(5 Assists)
Bayer Leverkusen - Arsenal Key Points
- Arsenal have won all eight of their UCL games this season.
- Bayer Leverkusen have only won one home game in this season's Champions League.
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 13 away games
- Arsenal have only lost to PSG in their last 18 UCL fixtures.
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Our Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal Prediction
Arsenal have been known to get into strong positions and then fade away towards the end of the season. That doesn't seem to be happening this term and it will be a big surprise if they don't win at least one major trophy this season.
They are strong on the road and have won all four of their away games in this season's UCL with only one goal conceded. Bayer Leverkusen have only won one home game in this season's Champions League. Our main Bayer Leverkusen v Arsenal prediction is Arsenal wins.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal Alternative Predictions
Second half to have most goals
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Bayer Leverkusen Arsenal
| Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen wins | 5.5 | 6.25 | +13.6% |
| Draw | 4 | 4.6 | +15.0% |
| Arsenal wins | 1.62 | 1.6 | -1.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Arsenal is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 1.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 61.7% and is now 62.5% (0.8%)
Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal - FAQs
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
