AZ Alkmaar vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction & Betting Tips - Conference League
Europe - Conference League
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Conference League Predictions
AZ Alkmaar are going into a tough outing when they host Shakhtar Donetsk in their UEFA Conference League quarter-final return leg match. The Dutch side trails 3-0 from the first leg hosted in Poland by the Ukrainian side and needs to at least win by three unanswered goals. Read on for our prediction of the match.
History doesn’t bode well for AZ heading into this game. They lost their last two ties in Europe when trailing by three goals from the first leg. It is a busy period for the Dutch side, and they’d have done with an easier task. Apart from the return leg, AZ are also preparing for the KNVB Cup final against Nijmegen.
On the other hand, Shakhtar are buzzing, heading into this game on the cusp of their first semi-final in Europe since 2019/20. As AZ looks to defy history, the same favors the visitors, who have progressed in their eight ties in Europe when leading by three goals.
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AZ Alkmaar v Shakhtar Donetsk Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.19 | 3.6 | 3.25 |
|
|
2.46 | 3.48 | 2.78 |
|
|
2.21 | 3.48 | 3.2 |
|
|
2.45 | 3.5 | 2.7 |
|
|
2.5 | 3.45 | 2.76 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between AZ Alkmaar and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our prediction for the AZ Alkmaar vs Shakhtar Donetsk match is: more than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 16/04/2026 between AZ Alkmaar and Shakhtar Donetsk in Conference League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 41.67% for a win of AZ Alkmaar against Shakhtar Donetsk with odds of 2.57 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between AZ Alkmaar vs Shakhtar Donetsk is 15.79% with odds of 3.6 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 42.54% chance ⭐ for a win of Shakhtar Donetsk vs AZ Alkmaar with odds of 3.25 at Stake.
AZ Alkmaar - Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction and Best Odds:
| AZ Alkmaar Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk wins | 42.54% | 3.25 at Stake |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.4% | 1.94 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score: No | 66.67% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Shakhtar Donetsk | 19.9% | 7.75 at LSbet |
AZ Alkmaar vs Shakhtar Donetsk Form
AZ Alkmaar and Shakhtar Donetsk Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Apr 2026 - Eredivisie
9 Apr 2026 - Conference League
4 Apr 2026 - Eredivisie
22 Mar 2026 - Eredivisie
19 Mar 2026 - Conference League
15 Mar 2026 - Eredivisie
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Apr 2026 - Eredivisie
4 Apr 2026 - Eredivisie
15 Mar 2026 - Eredivisie
12 Mar 2026 - Conference League
4 Mar 2026 - KNVB beker
26 Feb 2026 - Conference League
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Apr 2026 - Conference League
22 Mar 2026 - Eredivisie
19 Mar 2026 - Conference League
7 Mar 2026 - Eredivisie
1 Mar 2026 - Eredivisie
19 Feb 2026 - Conference League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Apr 2026 - Ukrainian Premier League
9 Apr 2026 - Conference League
5 Apr 2026 - Ukrainian Premier League
19 Mar 2026 - Conference League
15 Mar 2026 - Ukrainian Premier League
12 Mar 2026 - Conference League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Apr 2026 - Conference League
5 Apr 2026 - Ukrainian Premier League
19 Mar 2026 - Conference League
15 Mar 2026 - Ukrainian Premier League
27 Feb 2026 - Ukrainian Premier League
22 Feb 2026 - Ukrainian Premier League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Apr 2026 - Ukrainian Premier League
12 Mar 2026 - Conference League
6 Mar 2026 - Ukrainian Premier League
11 Dec 2025 - Conference League
6 Dec 2025 - Ukrainian Premier League
27 Nov 2025 - Conference League
AZ Alkmaar vs Shakhtar Donetsk Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
9 Apr 2026 - Conference League
AZ Alkmaar - Shakhtar Donetsk: Form Analysis
AZ have their backs against the wall after falling 3-0 to an impressive Shakhtar in the first leg. They did have some recovery in the Eredivisie, beating Heerenveen 3-0 for the perfect warmup. The bigger job now is to replicate the same performance against the Ukrainian giants.
The Dutchmen have a superb record at home and will heavily bank on that. They are on seven straight wins and are unbeaten in nine matches they hosted. It is even better in Europe – unbeaten in 15, with 13 wins. However, only five of those continental home games yielded 3+ goals.
Shakhtar have scored two or more in their last five away UECL games.
Shakhtar are flying high following their first ever win against AZ. After beating that piece of history, they will be eyeing another. That was the Ukrainian side’s only third win against Dutch opposition; definitely something to better. In that run against Eredivisie teams, Shakhtar lost six matches.
The visitors couldn’t back up their big first leg win as they played to a 2-2 draw with LNZ Cherkasy in their domestic league. Still, they take into this game a three-match unbeaten run. The Miners are unbeaten in five Conference League away matches this season and have won each of them.
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AZ Alkmaar against Shakhtar Donetsk Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Formation : 4 - 1 - 4 - 1
Substitutes
H. Verhulst
R. Owusu Oduro
DefenderM. Menu
E. Dijkstra
A. Penetra
MidfielderS. Mijnans
K. Smit
I. Jensen
R. Robbemond
T. Parrott
B. Kovacs
A. Oufkir
D. Tvardovskyi
DefenderA. Ghram
Irakli Azarov
Marlon
Y. Konoplya
MidfielderM. Gomes
L. Ferreira
A. Bondarenko
L. Traore
Eguinaldo
Luca Meirelles
P. Obah
Missing players
D. Kasius
MidfielderP. Koopmeiners
ForwardJ. Hornkamp
AZ Alkmaar & Shakhtar Donetsk Squad Analysis
AZ will need to summon all the attacking might in their tanks as they head into this fixture. In Troy Parrott they have some hope, with the Irishman netting three and assisting once in the Conference League this season.
Parrot has had 28 shots in the 755 minutes he’s played in this competition. He carries a 3.66 xG into this match. Together with Sven Mijnans, they should form a devastating forward line against the Ukrainians. The two have a combined 52 G/A in all competitions for the club.
Parrott and Mijnans will be the key figures in AZ’s attack in this game.
Shakhtar will have their hands full here. They must be sturdy in defence, though that’s not an area that has troubled them this season in Europe. In their last five away Conference League games, they conceded more than a goal just once.
Goalkeeper Dmytro Riznyk has 16 clean sheets and one assist in 25 matches this season. In five games in this competition, he managed two shutouts. The visitors also have defenders who could hurt AZ in attack. Brazilian Pedro Henrique is a good example with six goal involvements in all competitions.
Most goals and assists
AZ Alkmaar
Shakhtar Donetsk
S. Mijnans
(6 Goals)
Luca Meirelles
(3 Goals)
,
Alisson
(3 Goals)
K. Smit
(4 Assists)
K. Elias
(4 Assists)
AZ Alkmaar - Shakhtar Donetsk Key Points
- Four of AZ’s last five matches had 3+ goals scored.
- 15 goals were netted in AZ Alkmaar’s last five home games.
- On average, 2.8 goals were scored in Shakhtar’s last five games.
- Each of the three previous matches between these sides had over 2.5 goals.
- 16 goals were scored in Shakhtar’s last five away matches in the Conference League.
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Our AZ Alkmaar vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction
AZ Alkmaar will have to go all out attacking in this game to try and stay in Europe. As they have been good in attack, especially at home, we feel they will get more than one goal here. The downside of an attacking strategy is that they may be exposed defensively.
This is an area Shakhtar will be looking to exploit. The visitors are equally good in attack, so a high-scoring game could be on the cards here. Our prediction for AZ Alkmaar v Shakhtar Donetsk is for more than 2.5 goals.
AZ Alkmaar vs Shakhtar Donetsk Alternative Predictions
AZ Alkmaar wins
Though this tie is heavily leaning against AZ, their home form should offer some hope. The Dutch side has won the last seven matches they hosted. They are unbeaten in seven home games in this competition and won six of them.
While Shakhtar have also done well in this competition, we feel they could be felled here. Our second prediction here is for AZ Alkmaar winning.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis AZ Alkmaar Shakhtar Donetsk
| AZ Alkmaar vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar wins | 2.15 | 2.57 | +19.5% |
| Draw | 3.5 | 3.6 | +2.9% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk wins | 3.3 | 3.25 | -1.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Shakhtar Donetsk is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 1.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 30.3% and is now 30.8% (0.5%)
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AZ Alkmaar vs Shakhtar Donetsk - FAQs
The AZ Alkmaar v Shakhtar Donetsk match will be played on Thursday, 16th April.
The AZ Alkmaar v Shakhtar Donetsk match will be played at the AFAS Stadium in Alkmaar.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
