Europe - Champions League
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by Kennedy Kechula | in Champions League Predictions
Atletico Madrid are going for their eighth win of the season across all competitions when they host Union Saint-Gilloise in the Champions League. The Spaniards have only lost three times this season, but two of those defeats were in this competition. Union Saint-Gilloise have also lost two of their three matches in Europe, so both will be desperate for three points here. Read on for our prediction of the match below.
As we go into matchday four of this competition, Spanish giants Atletico Madrid and USG will be clashing for the first time. The Spaniards’ only previous meeting with a Belgian side was against Club Brugge. They’ve faced Brugge eight times, winning three and losing as many.
As for Union SG, this will be the first time the Belgian side faces Spanish opposition in a UEFA competition. They will be looking to win four of five away matches in Europe. At the same time, they are also out to condemn Atletico to a second defeat in 17 UEFA matches at home.
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The Best Betting Odds for Atletico Madrid v Union Saint-Gilloise Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.27 | 6.5 | 9 |
|
|
1.22 | 6.5 | 13 |
|
|
1.25 | 6 | 10 |
|
|
1.25 | 6 | 11 |
|
|
1.22 | 6.75 | 11.5 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Atletico Madrid and Union Saint-Gilloise?
Our prediction for the Atletico Madrid vs Union Saint-Gilloise match is: over 2.5 goals and BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 04/11/2025 between Atletico Madrid and Union Saint-Gilloise in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 54.05% for a win of Atletico Madrid against Union Saint-Gilloise with odds of 1.27 at Bet365.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Atletico Madrid vs Union Saint-Gilloise is 10.74% with odds of 6.75 at Unibet.
- Our prediction model gives a 35.21% chance ⭐ for a win of Union Saint-Gilloise vs Atletico Madrid with odds of 13 at Betfred.
Atletico Madrid - Union Saint-Gilloise Prediction and Best Odds:
| Atletico Madrid Union Saint-Gilloise Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid wins | 54.05% | 1.27 at Bet365 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.96% | 1.49 at Bwin |
| Both Team To Score | 54.76% | 2.02 at Unibet |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Atletico Madrid | 27.92% | 4.33 at Betfair |
Atletico Madrid vs Union Saint-Gilloise Form
Atletico Madrid and Union Saint-Gilloise's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
17
|
6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
|
28
|
3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 |
Atletico Madrid and Union Saint-Gilloise Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
27 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
21 Oct 2025 - Champions League
18 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
10 Oct 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
5 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
18 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
10 Oct 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
30 Sept 2025 - Champions League
27 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
24 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
21 Oct 2025 - Champions League
5 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
21 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
17 Sept 2025 - Champions League
30 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Nov 2025 - Jupiler Pro League
29 Oct 2025 - Belgian Cup
26 Oct 2025 - Jupiler Pro League
21 Oct 2025 - Champions League
18 Oct 2025 - Jupiler Pro League
5 Oct 2025 - Jupiler Pro League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Oct 2025 - Jupiler Pro League
21 Oct 2025 - Champions League
18 Oct 2025 - Jupiler Pro League
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
27 Sept 2025 - Jupiler Pro League
31 Aug 2025 - Jupiler Pro League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Nov 2025 - Jupiler Pro League
29 Oct 2025 - Belgian Cup
5 Oct 2025 - Jupiler Pro League
21 Sept 2025 - Jupiler Pro League
16 Sept 2025 - Champions League
13 Sept 2025 - Jupiler Pro League
Atletico Madrid - Union Saint-Gilloise: Form Analysis
We are getting into the halfway point of the league phase in this competition. Going by their profile, Atletico Madrid will feel sitting 19th at this stage is not reflective of their status.
Defeats from two English sides and a sole win against Eintracht Frankfurt have them three points off the top eight. In the last round, they were thrashed 4-0 at Arsenal, with all goals coming in a span of 13 minutes.
In the aftermath of that loss, Atletico posted straight wins in the next two matches, scoring five goals and conceding zero. The most recent of them was a 3-0 victory against Sevilla. That marked a 12th unbeaten home match for Atleti.
Atletico Madrid haven't lost a home match across all competitions since April.
Union SG will come into this game knowing they are outright underdogs. Facing a side that has never lost to a Belgian opponent further stresses that aspect.
They will, however, come into this match high in confidence following their latest result. The visitors warmed up for this match with a 4-1 away victory against Zulte Waregem.
That was their third straight win after suffering a 4-0 loss at home to Inter Milan in the last round of this competition. The loss to Inter marked a second straight defeat in the Champions League, having suffered a loss by the same margin against Newcastle United.
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Atletico Madrid against Union Saint-Gilloise Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Atletico Madrid & Union Saint-Gilloise Squad Analysis
Julian Alvarez remains the star man in the Atletico Madrid attack. In north London, he hit the bar at 0-0 before Arsenal turned the tables on the Spaniards.
After that, he has had two goal involvements in Atletico’s last two matches. He opened the scoring against Sevilla, his eighth goal of the season, while he has five assists so far.
Midfielders Pablo Barrios and Nico Gonzalez are both ruled out of this match with injury.
Julian Alvarez has scored once and had two assists in the Champions League this season.
At Union SG, the list of unavailable players is relatively shorter. After featuring only in the cup game domestically, Guillaume Francois is one of the players set to miss this game.
This season, he has featured cumulatively for 22 minutes. His mate, Fuseini Mohamed’s injury woes persist. He has only featured in two matches this season and will be out of this one as well, with an ankle injury.
Most goals and assists
Atletico Madrid
Union Saint-Gilloise
J. Alvarez
(9 Goals)
K. Rodriguez
(7 Goals)
G. Simeone
(5 Assists)
C. Burgess
(3 Assists)
Atletico Madrid - Union Saint-Gilloise Key Points
- Atletico’s last four matches had 10 goals.
- Atletico’s three UCL matches had over 2.5 goals.
- 12 goals were scored in Union SG’s three UCL outings.
- Three of Atletico’s last five home games had both sides score.
- Three of Union SG’s last five away games had both teams score.
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Our Atletico Madrid vs Union Saint-Gilloise Prediction
Atletico Madrid will be expected to break their goalless run against Belgian clubs. This has been witnessed in the last three matches. The Spaniards, like Union SG, are looking to rise from humiliating defeats in the last round of this competition, so goalmouth action is expected.
Seven of Atletico’s last eight home games in the Champions League also saw both sides score. For both sides, high-scoring matches have been a fixture, and we may see the same here. Our prediction for Atletico Madrid v Union Saint-Gilloise is for over 2.5 goals and BTTS.
Atletico Madrid vs Union Saint-Gilloise - Other Interesting Predictions
Atletico Madrid to win
Atletico Madrid have a good record against Belgian sides, and we expect this to keep up with that run. In their last 11 home matches, Atletico Madrid are unbeaten, going back all the way to April when they fell to Barcelona in a Copa Del Rey match.
In their only home outing in this season’s UCL, they thrashed Eintracht Frankfurt 5-1. Based on such performances, our second prediction for this match is for Atletico to win.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Atletico Madrid Union Saint-Gilloise
| Atletico Madrid vs Union Saint-Gilloise | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid wins | 1.33 | 1.27 | -4.5% |
| Draw | 5.25 | 6.5 | +23.8% |
| Union Saint-Gilloise wins | 9 | 9 | 0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Atletico Madrid is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 4.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 75.2% and is now 78.7% (3.6%)
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Atletico Madrid vs Union Saint-Gilloise match : Frequently asked questions
The Atletico Madrid v Union Saint-Gilloise match will be played on Tuesday, 4th November.
The Atletico Madrid v Union Saint-Gilloise match will be staged at the Metropolitano Stadium in Madrid.
The Atletico Madrid v Union Saint-Gilloise match will be aired on DPG Media, RTL Belgium, Proximus, and Telenet in Belgium. Telefonica will broadcast the game for Spanish audiences, while live updates for this and other Champions League matches will also be on Sportytrader.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
