Europe - Champions League
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by Steve Ashfield | in Champions League Predictions
Can Qarabag continue their excellent start to the league phase. After the first two games of this stage of the Champions League. they are in sixth place and on Wednesday travel to 34th-placed Athletic BIlbao. Here's our match prediction.
Qarabag have won both of their games played in this league phase. They are one of only six clubs to have managed that feat. Last season saw them beaten in the play-off stage of this competition and then finish a rock bottom 36th in the Europa League losing all but one of their games.
Athletic Bilbao have made a poor start to their campaign. The La Liga club are one of only four clubs to begin the league phase with a couple of defeats. It's been a tough start for them though fixture wise as you will read in the form section of this preview. They are only two points behind the play-offs so a good win over Qarabag will put them back on track.
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The Best Betting Odds for Athletic Bilbao v Qarabag FK Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.3 | 5.5 | 8.5 |
|
|
1.33 | 5.5 | 10 |
|
|
1.3 | 5 | 9 |
|
|
1.33 | 5.25 | 8.5 |
|
|
1.28 | 5.75 | 10 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Athletic Bilbao and Qarabag FK?
Our prediction for the Athletic Bilbao vs Qarabag FK match is: both teams to score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 22/10/2025 between Athletic Bilbao and Qarabag FK in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 27.23% for a win of Athletic Bilbao against Qarabag FK with odds of 1.33 at Betfred.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Athletic Bilbao vs Qarabag FK is 11.35% with odds of 5.75 at Unibet.
- Our prediction model gives a 61.42% chance ⭐ for a win of Qarabag FK vs Athletic Bilbao with odds of 10 at Betfred.
Athletic Bilbao - Qarabag FK Prediction and Best Odds:
| Athletic Bilbao Qarabag FK Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Qarabag FK wins | 61.42% | 10 at Betfred |
| Under 2.5 | 57.28% | 2.48 at Unibet |
| Both Team To Score | 38.1% | 2.04 at Unibet |
| Half-time : Athletic Bilbao / Full-time : Qarabag FK | 20.87% | 71 at Betfair |
Athletic Bilbao vs Qarabag FK Form
Athletic Bilbao and Qarabag FK's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
13
|
6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
|
21
|
3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 |
Athletic Bilbao and Qarabag FK Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
4 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
27 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
23 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
20 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
23 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
16 Sep 2025 - Champions League
13 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
4 Sep 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
25 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
27 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
20 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
31 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
9 Aug 2025 - Emirates Cup
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Oct 2025 - Topaz Premier League
4 Oct 2025 - Topaz Premier League
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
26 Sep 2025 - Topaz Premier League
21 Sep 2025 - Topaz Premier League
16 Sep 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Oct 2025 - Topaz Premier League
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
26 Sep 2025 - Topaz Premier League
12 Sep 2025 - Topaz Premier League
27 Aug 2025 - Champions League
22 Aug 2025 - Topaz Premier League
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Oct 2025 - Topaz Premier League
21 Sep 2025 - Topaz Premier League
16 Sep 2025 - Champions League
31 Aug 2025 - Topaz Premier League
19 Aug 2025 - Champions League
5 Aug 2025 - Champions League
Athletic Bilbao - Qarabag FK: Form Analysis
Qarabag have earned six points from their first two games in the league phase. The club from Azerbaijan lost ten matches in Europe last season so this start to their 2025-26 Champions League campaign is more than welcome.
They had to make their way through three qualifying rounds and won five of their six matches. The play-off round saw them defeat Ferencvaros 5-4 on aggregate. They haven't looked back since with a 3-2 win at Benfica. A great result considering they were 2-0 down after 16 minutes.
That away win was followed by a 2-0 home victory over Copenhagen with a goal in each half. Qarabag are top of the Azerbaijan Premier League after seven games of the new season with the last four fixtures all being won.
Bilbao are still without a point in the league phase.
Athletic Bilbao are still searching for their first point in this league phase. The La Liga side were semi-finalists in last year's Europa League. They started off in this competition with a 2-0 home loss to Arsenal, though it took the Gunners until the 72nd minute to break the deadlock.
Bilbao suffered another Champions League loss when being beaten 4-1 at Borussia Dortmund. They are currently eighth in La Liga with 14 points from their eight games and at the weekend drew 0-0 at Elche.
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Athletic Bilbao against Qarabag FK Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Missing players
U. Egiluz
MidfielderB. Prados
Athletic Bilbao & Qarabag FK Squad Analysis
Athletic Bilbao have two away games at Newcastle and Slavia Prague following the visit of Qarabag. They certainly won't want to go into those away games without a win in this league phase so this is a vital game for them.
Home advantage is a big plus for them with recent form strong aside from the loss to Arsenal. They will have to try and get three points without Yeray Alvarez who is suspended for this Champions League match. Also absent will be Unai Egiluz and Benat Prados.
Can the Williams brothers lead Bilbao to three points?
Inaki Williams is a vital player for them and he is also a doubt for this home match against Qarabag. The forward is expected to be fit though and his experience up front will be a big asset for Bilbao. His brother Nico is also due to be playing.
It's been an impressive first two games in the league phase for Qarabag. Five goals and six points is a dream for them. They come into this match with no injury problems and with their squad in impressive form, they will make life difficult for the home side.
The fact that they conceded two early goals at Benfica and fought back to win the game 3-2 shows what a task Bilbao have in this match. They'll be looking for more goals from Abdellah Zoubir and Leandro Andrade who have both scored four goals this season plus seven assists between them.
Most goals and assists
Athletic Bilbao
Qarabag FK
G. Guruzeta
(3 Goals)
M. Jauregizar
(2 Assists)
,
N. Williams
(2 Assists)
C. Duran
(1 Assists)
, 
A. Zoubir
(1 Assists)
, 
M. Jankovic
(1 Assists)
Athletic Bilbao - Qarabag FK Key Points
- Both teams have scored in three of Bilbao's last five matches.
- Of Bilbao's last three European competition fixture, two have seen both teams get on the scoresheet.
- Three of Qarabag's last four Champions League games have seen both teams score.
- Qarabag have scored six goals in their last two Champions League away games but conceded three.
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Our Athletic Bilbao vs Qarabag FK Prediction
It's been an excellent start to the league phase for Qarabag. Two impressive wins see them in the automatic qualification places but can they keep up their impressive European form. It's a long way from the disappointing Europa League campaign of last season.
Athletic Bilbao will find this a little bit easier than their opening two games against Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund. They will be out to get their first win of the league phase and an open game looks likely. Our main Athletic Bilbao v Qarabag prediction is both teams to score.
Athletic Bilbao vs Qarabag FK - Other Interesting Predictions
Second half to have most goals
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Athletic Bilbao Qarabag FK
| Athletic Bilbao vs Qarabag FK | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Bilbao wins | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0% |
| Draw | 5.5 | 5.5 | 0% |
| Qarabag FK wins | 8 | 8.5 | +6.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Qarabag FK is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 6.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 12.5% and is now 11.8% (-0.7%)
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Athletic Bilbao vs Qarabag FK match : Frequently asked questions
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
