Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Champions League Predictions
The early kickoff in midweek in the Champions League sees Atalanta BC playing host to Borussia Dortmund at the Gewiss Stadium in the second leg of their Knockout Playoff clash. The winner of this tie between La Dea and Die Schwarzgelben will meet either Arsenal or Bayern Munich in the Round of 16. Check out our match prediction below!
Raffaele Palladino’s side enter this match staring at an uphill battle, having lost the first leg of this tie 2-0 at Signal Iduna Park last week. I Nerazzurri were knocked out of the UCL at this very stage last season by Club Brugge and are now hoping to reach the last 16 of Europe’s top-tier tournament for the first time since 2020-21.
History indicates that BVB should progress to the next stage, as they have won the last 10 European ties in which they were 2-0 up from the first leg. The Prussians lost to Barcelona in the quarter-finals last term and have only failed to reach the RO16 once in the last eight seasons. To the key stats!
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Atalanta v Borussia Dortmund Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.22 | 3.8 | 3.05 |
|
|
2.18 | 3.74 | 3.05 |
|
|
2.18 | 3.74 | 3.05 |
|
|
2.2 | 3.9 | 3 |
|
|
2.18 | 3.7 | 3.05 |
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What is the prediction for the football match between Atalanta and Borussia Dortmund?
Our prediction for the Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 25/02/2026 between Atalanta and Borussia Dortmund in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 40.66% for a win of Atalanta against Borussia Dortmund with odds of 2.27 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund is 25.06% with odds of 4.1 at LSbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 34.28% chance ⭐ for a win of Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta with odds of 3.16 at 888Starz.
Atalanta - Borussia Dortmund Prediction and Best Odds:
| Atalanta Borussia Dortmund Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta wins | 40.66% | 2.27 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.24% | 1.8 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 54.17% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Atalanta/Atalanta | 19.07% | 3.5 at Bet365 |
Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund Form
Atalanta and Borussia Dortmund Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Feb 2026 - Serie A
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
14 Feb 2026 - Serie A
9 Feb 2026 - Serie A
5 Feb 2026 - Coppa Italia
1 Feb 2026 - Serie A
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Feb 2026 - Serie A
9 Feb 2026 - Serie A
5 Feb 2026 - Coppa Italia
25 Jan 2026 - Serie A
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
10 Jan 2026 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
14 Feb 2026 - Serie A
1 Feb 2026 - Serie A
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
16 Jan 2026 - Serie A
7 Jan 2026 - Serie A
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
13 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
1 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
13 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
1 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
13 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
9 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
33 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
22 Feb 2018 - Europa League
15 Feb 2018 - Europa League
Atalanta - Borussia Dortmund: Form Analysis
Atalanta suffered defeat in their final two UCL League Phase matches, which saw them end the group stage in 15th place. Another loss here would mark the first time the Bergamo outfit has lost four consecutive European games.
However, La Dea will feel that they are still in this tie after pulling off a 2-1 comeback win over Scudetto holders Napoli at the weekend. That result extended their unbeaten run in Serie A to nine games (W7 D2).
The hosts lost only one of their four home games in the League Phase (W2 D1) and enter this crucial clash riding a four-match win streak at the Gewiss Stadium across all competitions.
Atalanta have scored two or more goals in each of their last six home matches in all competitions!
Meanwhile, the victory in the first leg felt vital for Borussia Dortmund, as they had failed to win their last three matches in Europe (D1 L2) and ended the League Phase in an underwhelming 17th place.
BVB clinched a last-ditch 2-2 draw against Leipzig in the Bundesliga at the weekend and are now unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions (W4 D1) since losing to Inter on MD8.
Despite being two goals up in this tie, Dortmund’s away record suggests that the job is not done. They only managed one win on the road in the group stage (D1 L2) and conceded 12 goals in their four outings.
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Atalanta against Borussia Dortmund Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Substitutes
M. Sportiello
F. Rossi
DefenderM. Bakker
O. Kossounou
H. Ahanor
R. Bellanova
B. Djimsiti
Ederson
Y. Musah
ForwardN. Krstovic
K. Sulemana
D. Vavassori
S. Ostrzinski
A. Meyer
DefenderL. Reggiani
N. Schlotterbeck
Y. Couto
E. Benkara
MidfielderK. Adeyemi
C. Chukwuemeka
S. Ozcan
M. Sabitzer
ForwardF. Silva
S. Inacio
Missing players
N. Sule
F. Mane
Atalanta & Borussia Dortmund Squad Analysis
Palladino will have a massive call to make between Gianluca Scamacca and Nikola Krstovic in attack this week. Krstovic started against Napoli at the weekend, but Scamacca could get the nod after scoring in his last two UCL home games.
Ederson did not feature against Partenopei. The La Dea boss revealed after the match that he opted not to risk the midfielder after he had strained a muscle in training, but reports suggest he should be fine to feature in midweek.
Saed Kolasinac was withdrawn with a knock in the closing moments of the match over the weekend and is now a doubt. Giacomo Raspadori and Charles De Ketelaere are sidelined until the end of March.
Serhou Guirassy has seven goal contributions in nine UCL appearances this season!
The Guinea international has been in scintillating form since the start of February, recording seven goal contributions in his last five matches, including a goal and an assist in the first leg of this tie.
Fabio Silva came off the bench to score BVB’s equaliser in the fifth minute of stoppage time against Leipzig at the weekend, and he could feature from the start here, possibly replacing Julian Brandt.
The visitors have four players listed on their injury report for this trip to Bergamo, including the defensive trio of Nico Schlotterbeck, Niklas Sule, and Filippo Mane, as well as midfielder Emre Can.
Most goals and assists
Atalanta
Borussia Dortmund
L. Samardzic
(4 Goals)
S. Guirassy
(4 Goals)
C. De Ketelaere
(2 Assists)
, 
M. de Roon
(2 Assists)
S. Guirassy
(3 Assists)
Atalanta - Borussia Dortmund Key Points
- Three of Atalanta’s four Champions League home games ended with both teams scoring.
- Atalanta have scored two or more goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions.
- Three of Dortmund’s four Champions League away games ended with both teams scoring.
- Dortmund have also scored two or more goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions.
- Atalanta and Dortmund have a 1.69 and 1.79 xG per 90 in the UCL this season, respectively.
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Our Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction
While Atalanta have a massive task on their hands to overturn this deficit, they are certainly not out of this tie just yet. They have been very impressive at home of late, scoring two or more goals in each of their last six games at the Gewiss Stadium, including in the victory over Napoli at the weekend.
Adding to the hosts’ hopes of pulling off a comeback here is Dortmund’s underwhelming away record in this competition. This week’s visitors conceded two or more goals in every UCL League Phase match on the road and leaked another couple against Leipzig on Saturday. Our Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund prediction is BTTS.
Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund Alternative Predictions
More than 2.5 goals
Both these sides scored two or more goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions. Additionally, a total of 21 goals were scored in BVB’s four away games in the UCL League Phase this season.
Serhou Guirassy to score anytime
Serhou Guirassy has scored six goals in his last five matches across all competitions, and notched up a goal and an assist in the first leg of this tie last week.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Atalanta Borussia Dortmund
| Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta wins | 2.15 | 2.27 | +5.6% |
| Draw | 3.82 | 4.1 | +7.3% |
| Borussia Dortmund wins | 3.48 | 3.16 | -9.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Atalanta is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 5.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 46.5% and is now 44.1% (-2.5%)
Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund - FAQs
The Champions League match between Atalanta and Borussia Dortmund will take place on February 25 at 17:45 GMT.
The Champions League match between Atalanta and Borussia Dortmund will be played at the Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo.
The Champions League match between Atalanta and Borussia Dortmund will be broadcast on Sky (Italy) and DAZN (Germany). UK viewers can tune in to TNT Sports.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our Champions League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
