Atalanta vs Bayern Munich Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Steve Ashfield | in Champions League Predictions
Can Atalanta make their way past Bayern Munich in the Champions League? This is the first leg of their last 16 tie and the Orobics will be going all out to secure a lead to take to Germany for the second leg. Read our match prediction.
The winners of this tie will face either Real Madrid or Manchester City in the quarter-finals. Atalanta finished only 15th in the league phase and then had a dramatic knockout play-off round tie against Borussia Dortmund. As you will read in the form section of this preview, they left it very late to secure their place in the last 16 of the ECL. Now they take on another German Bundesliga side and face a stiff task to progress.
Bayern Munich are walking away with the Bundesliga title and can really concentrate on winning the Champions League. They finished second in the league phase, only losing to the one side that finished above them, Arsenal. The Bavarians just keep on scoring goals and Atalanta will have to work hard to keep them out on Tuesday. Can Bayern get an away win to boost their chances of making it into the last eight?
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Atalanta v Bayern Munich Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.7 | 4.4 | 1.66 |
|
|
4.5 | 4.64 | 1.63 |
|
|
4.52 | 4.66 | 1.62 |
|
|
4.5 | 4.2 | 1.67 |
|
|
4.5 | 4.2 | 1.68 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Atalanta and Bayern Munich?
Our prediction for the Atalanta vs Bayern Munich match is: both teams to score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 10/03/2026 between Atalanta and Bayern Munich in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 32.22% for a win of Atalanta against Bayern Munich with odds of 4.8 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Atalanta vs Bayern Munich is 17.54% with odds of 4.85 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 50.25% chance ⭐ for a win of Bayern Munich vs Atalanta with odds of 1.72 at Shangrila.
Atalanta - Bayern Munich Prediction and Best Odds:
| Atalanta Bayern Munich Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich wins | 50.25% | 1.72 at Shangrila |
| Over 2.5 goals | 88.59% | |
| Both Team To Score | 73.81% | |
| Half-time : Atalanta / Full-time : Bayern Munich | 19% | 19 at LSbet |
Atalanta vs Bayern Munich Form
Atalanta and Bayern Munich Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - Serie A
4 Mar 2026 - Coppa Italia
1 Mar 2026 - Serie A
25 Feb 2026 - Champions League
22 Feb 2026 - Serie A
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - Serie A
25 Feb 2026 - Champions League
22 Feb 2026 - Serie A
9 Feb 2026 - Serie A
5 Feb 2026 - Coppa Italia
25 Jan 2026 - Serie A
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Mar 2026 - Coppa Italia
1 Mar 2026 - Serie A
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
14 Feb 2026 - Serie A
1 Feb 2026 - Serie A
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Feb 2026 - DFB Pokal
8 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Feb 2026 - DFB Pokal
8 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
Atalanta - Bayern Munich: Form Analysis
Atalanta are not in the best of form as they prepare for the first leg of this ECL tie. The weekend saw them have to come from 2-0 down at home to earn a point against Udinese. That extended their winless run to three matches.
The Black and Blues are only seventh in Serie A so might not be in the Champions League next season, unless they win it this term. Four of their eight games in the league phase were won with two home victories but a loss to Atletico Bilbao. In the Knockout Play-off round, they struggled to get past Borussia Dortmund.
The away first leg was lost 2-0 but they were 3-1 up in the return and extra time beckoned. Atalanta then scored a winner from the penalty spot in the 98th minute. Six of their last eight home ECL games have seen both teams score.
Bayern just can't stop winning.
Bayern Munich won seven of their eight games in the league phase. Their only loss came away at Arsenal losing that game 3-1. Away wins came at Pafos, PSG and PSV. They are 11 points clear at the top of the German Bundesliga, most recently beating Borussia Monchengladbach 4-1.
Their last six games have all been won with 20 goals scored. The Reds have scored at least twice in the last 20 matches they have played. Eight of their last 10 away Champions League games have seen both teams score, including all their fixtures this season.
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Atalanta against Bayern Munich Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
F. Rossi
M. Sportiello
DefenderR. Bellanova
M. Bakker
O. Kossounou
B. Djimsiti
H. Ahanor
Y. Musah
L. Samardzic
F. Cassa
ForwardD. Vavassori
S. Ulreich
L. Prescott
DefenderA. Davies
K. Min-jae
R. Guerreiro
T. Bischof
J. Musiala
L. Karl
L. Goretzka
H. Kane
Missing players
M. Neuer
DefenderH. Ito
Atalanta & Bayern Munich Squad Analysis
Four of Atalanta's five home games in this season's Champions League have seen them score at least twice. The problem for the Orobics is only one clean sheet has been kept in those games and Bayern are a much tougher task than Slavia Prague.
The Serie A club will want to get a lead to take to Germany but need to be a lot tighter at the back. They rested a few players for the weekend game against Udinese and will restore those for this game, including captain Marten De Roon.
Definitely out is the suspended Giorgio Scalvini and they'll be missing Charles de Ketelaere.
Kane is expected to return for Bayern.
Harry Kane didn't play for Bayern in their weekend win over Borussia Monchengladbach due to a calf problem. The England striker is expected to be fit to play on Tuesday and that's a big problem for Atalanta. Kane has scored eight goals in this season's ECL.
There is a major doubt over captain Manuel Neuer who went off at half-time against Monchengladbach. He'd only just come back from injury. Bayern have scored ten goals in their four away ECL games this season and will be confident of adding to that total on Tuesday.
Most goals and assists
Atalanta
Bayern Munich
L. Samardzic
(4 Goals)
H. Kane
(14 Goals)
C. De Ketelaere
(2 Assists)
, 
M. de Roon
(2 Assists)
M. Olise
(5 Assists)
Atalanta - Bayern Munich Key Points
- Both teams have scored in six of Atalanta's last eight home ECL fixtures.
- Eight of the last ten Bayern Munich away Champions League games have seen both teams score.
- Each of the last six Bayern away games have seen both teams get on the scoresheet.
- Both teams have scored in the last four Atalanta home matches.
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Our Atalanta vs Bayern Munich Prediction
Both of these clubs score plenty of goals but keeping clean sheets isn't too often an occurrence. Atalanta aren't in the best of form at present and have work to do to make it into the Champions League qualification places in Serie A.
The visitors continue to dominate the German Bundesliga and a win at Atalanta will make it seven wins in a row. We expect to see both teams attacking throughout and our main Atalanta v Bayern Munich prediction is both teams to score.
Atalanta vs Bayern Munich Alternative Predictions
Bayern Munich wins
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Atalanta Bayern Munich
| Atalanta vs Bayern Munich | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta wins | 4.6 | 4.8 | +4.3% |
| Draw | 4.3 | 4.85 | +12.8% |
| Bayern Munich wins | 1.61 | 1.72 | +6.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Bayern Munich is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 6.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 62.1% and is now 58.1% (-4.0%)
Atalanta vs Bayern Munich - FAQs
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
