Aston Villa vs Newcastle Prediction & Betting Tips - FA Cup
England - FA Cup
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Kennedy Kechula | in FA Cup Predictions
Aston Villa will welcome Premier League rivals Newcastle United this weekend as the two teams resume their FA Cup campaigns. This is a fourth-round game in the competition and will mark the third meeting of the season between these two. Read on to find our prediction of this match at Villa Park.
Villa defeated Newcastle in their most recent meeting in the FA Cup, which was in the third round of the 00/01 season. They are also unbeaten against the Magpies this season and, as a result, are favored by bookmakers to win this next meeting.
For Newcastle it now seems the better part of the season remainder will be redemption time. First, they need to avenge the 2-0 loss to Villa at home three weeks ago. Eddie Howe’s side has already been dethroned in the League Cup, and this seems like their only other realistic chance at silverware.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Aston Villa v Newcastle Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.55 | 3.65 | 2.55 |
|
|
2.38 | 3.58 | 2.83 |
|
|
2.28 | 3.58 | 2.99 |
|
|
2.57 | 3.7 | 2.4 |
|
|
2.3 | 3.55 | 2.88 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Aston Villa and Newcastle?
Our prediction for the Aston Villa vs Newcastle match is: Aston Villa wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 14/02/2026 between Aston Villa and Newcastle in FA Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 48.91% for a win of Aston Villa against Newcastle with odds of 2.57 at Bet365.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Aston Villa vs Newcastle is 19.03% with odds of 3.75 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 32.05% chance ⭐ for a win of Newcastle vs Aston Villa with odds of 2.99 at Betwinner.
Aston Villa - Newcastle Prediction and Best Odds:
| Aston Villa Newcastle Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa wins | 48.91% | 2.57 at Bet365 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.2% | 1.66 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score | 59.17% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Aston Villa | 18.09% | 7 at Bet365 |
Aston Villa vs Newcastle Form
Aston Villa and Newcastle Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Feb 2026 - Premier League
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
1 Feb 2026 - Premier League
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Feb 2026 - Premier League
1 Feb 2026 - Premier League
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
18 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Dec 2025 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
4 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
13 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
4 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
18 Jan 2026 - Premier League
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
Aston Villa vs Newcastle Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
17 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
16 Aug 2025 - Premier League
19 Apr 2025 - Premier League
26 Dec 2024 - Premier League
30 Jan 2024 - Premier League
12 Aug 2023 - Premier League
Aston Villa - Newcastle: Form Analysis
Aston Villa are coming into this match in much better form. Though struggling for a sustained run of results, Villa have made it quite difficult for their opponents to win. They’ve lost just twice in their last 10 games while winning six times.
Unai Emery’s men got back to victory over the weekend with a hard-fought 1-0 win at home over Brighton in the league. The result kept them firmly in the race for a top-four finish. Villa defeated Tottenham 2-1 away from home in the last round of the FA Cup. Semi-finalists last season, the Lions have qualified for the fourth round for a third successive campaign.
Newcastle lost 10 of the last 13 away FA Cup ties against Premier League opposition.
Newcastle are also contesting a fourth-round tie in the FA Cup for a third season in a row. They made it to the fifth round last season. With their recent run of form, a deep run looks far-fetched. Wins have been elusive for Newcastle, who had to go through a penalty shootout against Bournemouth to advance to this round.
The Toon Army has won just three of the last 10 matches. After a five-game winless run that saw them lose four times, Newcastle was able to return to winning ways this past weekend. Playing away to lowly Tottenham in the league, Newcastle earned a crucial 2-1 victory.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Aston Villa against Newcastle Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
E. Martinez
E. Konsa
I. Maatsen
T. Mings
MidfielderM. Kone
A. Garcia
E. Buendia
J. Sancho
O. Watkins
J. Ruddy
N. Pope
DefenderA. Murphy
L. Shahar
MidfielderP. Seung-soo
J. Willock
A. Gordon
A. Elanga
S. Neave
Missing players
J. McGinn
Y. Tielemans
B. Kamara
F. Schar
E. Krafth
T. Livramento
MidfielderL. Miley
ForwardJoelinton
Aston Villa & Newcastle Squad Analysis
Aston Villa have a lengthy absentee list with five players likely to miss this game. Boubacar Kamara, Youri Tielemans, John McGinn, and Andres Robledo are all out injured. Matty Cash did not play against Brighton due to a knee issue and is doubtful for Newcastle’s visit.
Goals have dried up for Morgan Rogers, but he is still Villa’s top scorer with 10 goals. He was on target in the previous round of the Cup. Emiliano Buendia and Ollie Watkins have scored seven and eight goals, respectively, and are others to look out for alongside the new man, Tammy Abraham.
Both Newcastle and Aston Villa are coping with lengthy injury lists.
Newcastle also have injury concerns of their own and could be without six players. Fabian Schar, Valentino Livramento, Emil Krafth, and Joelinton are all ruled out. They could be joined on the sidelines by Bruno Guimaraes and Lewis Miley, who, as it stands, have a 25% chance of being involved at Villa Park.
Guimaraes’ potential absence will be a big blow. The Brazilian has scored nine goals for the Magpies. Harvey Barnes and Anthony Gordon have scored a combined 22 goals. Both were on target against Bournemouth in the previous round of the Cup.
Aston Villa - Newcastle Key Points
- In their last 10 games, Villa have won six times.
- Newcastle have lost eight times in their last 15 away fixtures.
- Newcastle have failed to win seven times in their last 10 outings, losing five.
- Villa are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Newcastle, winning twice.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Aston Villa vs Newcastle Prediction
Our prediction for Aston Villa v Newcastle United is that Aston Villa wins. Villa are unbeaten against Newcastle in three meetings. This season, they have won one of their two meetings. Aside from this, the hosts are coming into this latest meeting in much better form.
Villa, one of the top attacking teams this season, have not lost in eight of their last 10 matches and have won six times. Newcastle, on their part, have found wins to be elusive and have lost more matches over a 10-game stretch.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle Alternative Predictions
Under 2.5 goals
For our second prediction, we pick this match to see an under 2.5 goals outcome. Newcastle haven’t scored against Villa this season and haven’t been free-flowing offensively in recent weeks.
With Villa possessing a much more rigid backline, there is a strong chance that this tie ends with a low-scoring outcome.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Aston Villa Newcastle
| Aston Villa vs Newcastle | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa wins | 2.15 | 2.57 | +19.5% |
| Draw | 3.6 | 3.75 | +4.2% |
| Newcastle wins | 3 | 2.99 | -0.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Aston Villa is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 19.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 46.5% and is now 38.9% (-7.6%)
Aston Villa vs Newcastle - FAQs
This match will be played on Saturday, 14 February.
This match will be played at Aston Villa’s Villa Park Stadium in Birmingham, England.
Fans in the UK can watch this game live on BBC One and TNT Sports 3. Detailed updates will also be available on Sportytrader for this and the rest of the FA Cup action this weekend.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
