Aston Villa vs Leeds Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Premier League Predictions
Saturday serves up a blockbuster battle in Birmingham, as Aston Villa prepare to lock horns with Leeds United in the opening match of a jam-packed Matchday 27 in the Premier League. The Villans are in third place in the league standings, while the Whites are 15th after 26 games. Check out our match prediction below!
With Man City and Arsenal playing later this weekend, the Lions will have the chance to draw first blood on MD27, and a victory here will see them move level with the Citizens and four points behind the Gunners. While Leeds are no pushover, Unai Emery has an excellent record against newly-promoted teams, having never lost to such a side since arriving at Villa Park.
Given West Ham’s recent upturn in results, Leeds are still mathematically part of the relegation scrap, but they are a side on the up. Barring the two Manchester clubs, no team has lost fewer games than Daniel Farke’s side since the start of December, and three points here could see them end the weekend in 13th place. Let’s get into the key stats!
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Aston Villa v Leeds Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.85 | 3.8 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.83 | 3.7 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.83 | 3.7 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.83 | 3.7 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.81 | 3.65 | 4.2 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Aston Villa and Leeds?
Our prediction for the Aston Villa vs Leeds match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 21/02/2026 between Aston Villa and Leeds in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 41.49% for a win of Aston Villa against Leeds with odds of 1.9 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Aston Villa vs Leeds is 30.84% with odds of 3.9 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 27.67% chance ⭐ for a win of Leeds vs Aston Villa with odds of 4.37 at 888Starz.
Aston Villa - Leeds Prediction and Best Odds:
| Aston Villa Leeds Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa wins | 41.49% | 1.9 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | 1.88 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 61.67% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Aston Villa/Aston Villa | 16.8% | 2.88 at Bet365 |
Aston Villa vs Leeds Form
Aston Villa and Leeds's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
65 | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | +7 |
|
14
|
47 | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | -7 |
Aston Villa and Leeds Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
11 Feb 2026 - Premier League
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
1 Feb 2026 - Premier League
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
11 Feb 2026 - Premier League
1 Feb 2026 - Premier League
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
18 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
6 Feb 2026 - Premier League
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
26 Jan 2026 - Premier League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Feb 2026 - Premier League
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
6 Dec 2025 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
26 Jan 2026 - Premier League
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
1 Jan 2026 - Premier League
Aston Villa vs Leeds Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
23 Nov 2025 - Premier League
13 Jan 2023 - Premier League
2 Oct 2022 - Premier League
10 Mar 2022 - Premier League
9 Feb 2022 - Premier League
27 Feb 2021 - Premier League
Aston Villa - Leeds: Form Analysis
After an excellent end to 2025, Aston Villa have been inconsistent in the New Year, recording three wins, two draws and two defeats in their seven EPL matches since the turn of the calendar.
The Villans avoided a third league match without victory by beating Brighton 1-0 here on MD26, but they were then dumped out of the FA Cup in the fourth round 3-1 by Newcastle last weekend.
The loss to the Magpies was the Lions' third in their last five home games across all competitions, a notable dip after winning 11 in a row between late September and the middle of January.
Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last six Prem matches against this opponent (W4 D2)!
Meanwhile, Leeds United were involved in one of the matches of MD26, as they managed to come back from two goals down to force a 2-2 draw and earn a point on the road against Chelsea.
The Whites then saw off Birmingham on penalties to progress to the fifth round of the FA Cup last weekend, and have now lost only two of their last 15 matches across all competitions (W6 D7).
The draw at Stamford Bridge was the fifth stalemate the visitors have played to in their last six away league games, with the only exception being a dramatic 4-3 loss to Newcastle United last month.
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Aston Villa against Leeds Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 5 - 4 - 1
Substitutes
J. Wright
DefenderL. Digne
P. Torres
V. Lindelof
MidfielderL. Bogarde
A. Garcia
R. Barkley
J. Sancho
T. Abraham
L. Perri
DefenderJ. Bijol
S. Bornauw
MidfielderS. Longstaff
A. Tanaka
ForwardJ. Piroe
G. Wilfried
D. James
L. Nmecha
Missing players
J. McGinn
B. Kamara
N. Okafor
Aston Villa & Leeds Squad Analysis
The major flashpoint of Villa’s loss to Newcastle was the red card shown to Marco Bizot in stoppage time at the end of the first half. Emiliano Martinez will return between the sticks for this match.
Morgan Rogers could be one to watch in this match. He bagged a brace in the reverse fixture at Elland Road and leads the team in chances created (33) and assists (5), while he also has the joint-most EPL goals for them this term (8).
The hosts will have to make do without midfielders Youri Tielemans, Boubacar Kamara and John McGinn due to injury, while defenders Matty Cash and Andres Garcia are listed as doubts.
Lukas Nmecha has scored four goals in his last six Premier League starts for Leeds!
The German centre-forward starred in the Whites' comeback at Stamford Bridge with a goal and an assist before scoring the opener at St. Andrews last week, and he should lead the line this weekend.
Noah Okafor has had goal contributions in each of his last three matches, but he was withdrawn with what appeared to be a hamstring issue against Birmingham and is a doubt for this match.
Daniel James pulled out of the squad before kickoff last week and is likely to miss this fixture. Anton Stach and Pascal Struijk are reportedly in contention to return from injury this weekend.
Most goals and assists
Aston Villa
Leeds
O. Watkins
(16 Goals)
D. Calvert-Lewin
(14 Goals)
L. Digne
(6 Assists)
,
M. Rogers
(6 Assists)
B. Aaronson
(5 Assists)
Aston Villa - Leeds Key Points
- Eight of Aston Villa’s last 13 league games have ended with both teams scoring.
- Aston Villa have only kept one clean sheet in their last eight home matches.
- Leeds have only failed to score in two of their last 15 games across all competitions.
- Nine of Leeds’ last 10 away matches have ended with both teams scoring.
- Both teams scored in the last two matches between these sides.
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Our Aston Villa vs Leeds Prediction
While Aston Villa still have one of the best home records in the league, they have not been as solid defensively at Villa Park of late, keeping just one clean sheet in their last eight matches at this venue.
Leeds have won only once on the road in the EPL this season, but they have ground out a point in five of their last six away league matches. Even if they lose this one, we feel they will get on the scoresheet. Our Aston Villa vs Leeds prediction is BTTS.
Aston Villa vs Leeds Alternative Predictions
Morgan Rogers to score or assist
Morgan Rogers leads Aston Villa in assists (5) and has the joint-most league goals this season (8). He also bagged a brace when these sides met at Elland Road back in November.
Over 2.5 goals
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Aston Villa Leeds
| Aston Villa vs Leeds | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa wins | 1.86 | 1.9 | +2.2% |
| Draw | 3.82 | 3.9 | +2.1% |
| Leeds wins | 4.65 | 4.37 | -6.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Aston Villa is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 2.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 53.8% and is now 52.6% (-1.1%)
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Aston Villa vs Leeds - FAQs
The Premier League match between Aston Villa and Leeds will take place on February 21 at 15:00 GMT.
The Premier League match between Aston Villa and Leeds will be played at Villa Park in Birmingham.
The Premier League match between Aston Villa and Leeds will not be broadcast on TV in the UK.
However, you can follow all the action on our Premier League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
