Aston Villa vs Brighton Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Premier League Predictions
Two sides in need of a positive result will meet on Matchday 26 of the Premier League this midweek when Aston Villa take on Brighton & Hove Albion at Villa Park. The Villans are third in the league standings, while the Seagulls are in 14th place after 25 games. Check out our match prediction below!
After getting themselves into the title race with an excellent run of results leading up to the end of 2025, Unai Emery’s men have been far too inconsistent in the New Year and now trail the league-leading Gunners by nine points. Anything but three points here feels like it will end the Lions' title hopes completely, while a loss could also see them end the gameweek in fourth place.
Brighton are in no immediate danger of relegation at this moment, but a defeat in the M23 derby over the past weekend has left them just eight points above the dotted line. They’ve only won one league game in 2026 and haven’t tasted victory at Villa Park since November 2020. Let’s get into some more key stats!
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Aston Villa v Brighton Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.08 | 3.75 | 3.55 |
|
|
1.55 | 4.63 | 4.41 |
|
|
2.02 | 3.62 | 3.54 |
|
|
2.05 | 3.7 | 3.38 |
|
|
2 | 3.75 | 3.4 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Aston Villa and Brighton?
Our prediction for the Aston Villa vs Brighton match is: more than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 11/02/2026 between Aston Villa and Brighton in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 56.48% for a win of Aston Villa against Brighton with odds of 2.1 at Betway.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Aston Villa vs Brighton is 21.64% with odds of 4.63 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 21.87% chance ⭐ for a win of Brighton vs Aston Villa with odds of 4.41 at 1xbet.
Aston Villa - Brighton Prediction and Best Odds:
| Aston Villa Brighton Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa wins | 56.48% | 2.1 at Betway |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.83% | 1.78 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 70% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Aston Villa/Aston Villa | 26.08% | 3.25 at Bet365 |
Aston Villa vs Brighton Form
Aston Villa and Brighton's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
65 | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | +7 |
|
8
|
53 | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | +6 |
Aston Villa and Brighton Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
1 Feb 2026 - Premier League
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
18 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Feb 2026 - Premier League
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
18 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Dec 2025 - Premier League
6 Dec 2025 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
22 Jan 2026 - Europa League
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Feb 2026 - Premier League
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
24 Jan 2026 - Premier League
19 Jan 2026 - Premier League
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Feb 2026 - Premier League
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
19 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
7 Dec 2025 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - Premier League
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
13 Dec 2025 - Premier League
Aston Villa vs Brighton Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
17 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
3 Dec 2025 - Premier League
2 Apr 2025 - Premier League
30 Dec 2024 - Premier League
5 May 2024 - Premier League
30 Sept 2023 - Premier League
28 May 2023 - Premier League
Aston Villa - Brighton: Form Analysis
Following an unexpected home loss to Brentford on MD24, Aston Villa produced another underwhelming performance against Bournemouth at the weekend and left the Vitality with a 1-1 draw.
With that disappointing result, the Villans have now won only one of their last five league games (D2 L2) and failed to score in three matches during this period, two of which were here at Villa Park.
The hosts have lost their last two home league matches, which is a concern as they won eight in a row here before that. However, they are unbeaten in their last four at this venue against this opponent.
Aston Villa won the reverse fixture 4-3 at the Amex back in December!
Meanwhile, despite dominating possession and carving out several good opportunities, Brighton were unable to take their chances and were beaten 1-0 in the South Coast derby by Palace over the weekend.
The Seagulls are now winless in their last four league games (D2 L2) and have only won one of their 12 last EPL matches since that seven-goal thriller at home against this opponent last December.
The visitors have also been very poor on the road this season, earning only 10 of their 31 points in away games (W2 D4 L6). They also conceded two or more goals in four of their last five on the road ahead of this one.
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Aston Villa against Brighton Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
J. Wright
M. Bizot
DefenderP. Torres
L. Digne
V. Lindelof
R. Barkley
L. Bailey
Alysson
T. Abraham
J. Steele
DefenderM. De Cuyper
O. Boscagli
J. Milner
H. Howell
M. O'Riley
ForwardG. Rutter
Y. Minteh
C. Kostoulas
Missing players
M. Cash
MidfielderJ. McGinn
B. Kamara
A. Garcia
M. Wieffer
ForwardS. Tzimas
Aston Villa & Brighton Squad Analysis
Morgan Rogers got on the scoresheet at the Vitality over the weekend. He has also recorded four goal contributions in his last five home matches and has been involved in four goals in his last three EPL games against this opponent.
Ollie Watkins returned to lead the line against the Cherries, and while he drew a blank in that match, he will be looking forward to this one, as he has 11 goal contributions in league games against the Seagulls.
The hosts have four confirmed absentees for this fixture, including Youri Tielemans, John McGinn, Allysson and Boubacar Kamara, who is likely to miss the remainder of the season.
James Milner could equal the all-time Premier League appearance record in this match!
The 40-year-old was an unused substitute against the Eagles and is one appearance shy of Gareth Barry’s tally of 653. He could equal the record here, potentially doing so against a side he played a century of matches for between 2005 and 2010.
Fabian Hurzeler handed Harry Howell his first Premier League start at the weekend, but the teenager had a tough outing, and the Seagulls' boss might consider going with the tried and tested Yankuba Minteh in this one.
The visitors have no new injury issues from the weekend, meaning Mats Wieffer, Solly March, Adam Webster and Stefanos Tzimas are the only players likely to miss this trip to Birmingham.
Most goals and assists
Aston Villa
Brighton
O. Watkins
(16 Goals)
D. Welbeck
(13 Goals)
L. Digne
(6 Assists)
,
M. Rogers
(6 Assists)
Y. Minteh
(4 Assists)
Aston Villa - Brighton Key Points
- Aston Villa have only kept two clean sheets in their last 12 league games.
- Four of Aston Villa’s last six home games have ended with over 2.5 goals.
- Brighton have also only kept two clean sheets in their last 12 league games.
- Brighton have conceded two or more goals in four of their last five away league games.
- Three or more goals were scored in six of the last seven matches between these sides.
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Our Aston Villa vs Brighton Prediction
Having only taken five points from their last five league games, Aston Villa will know the importance of winning this match, or they could end the gameweek in fourth place and out of the title race.
However, it’s tough to back the Villans here after they lost their last two home games and have looked shaky in defence for the past few weeks. Matches between these sides have produced goals in the past, and we’re expecting that to be the case in this one as well. Our Aston Villa vs Brighton prediction is more than 2.5 goals.
Aston Villa vs Brighton Alternative Predictions
BTTS
Aston Villa have only kept two clean sheets in their last 12 league games, while each of Brighton’s last five away matches have ended with both teams scoring.
Morgan Rogers to score or assist
Morgan Rogers has four goal contributions in his last five home matches and has been involved in four goals in his last three EPL games against this opponent.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Aston Villa Brighton
| Aston Villa vs Brighton | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa wins | 1.85 | 2.1 | +13.5% |
| Draw | 3.6 | 4.63 | +28.6% |
| Brighton wins | 3.8 | 4.41 | +16.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Aston Villa is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 13.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 54.1% and is now 47.6% (-6.4%)
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Aston Villa vs Brighton - FAQs
The Premier League match between Aston Villa and Brighton will take place on February 11 at 19:30 GMT.
The Premier League match between Aston Villa and Brighton will be played at Villa Park in Birmingham.
The Premier League match between Aston Villa and Brighton will be broadcast on Sky Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our Premier League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
