Aston Villa vs Bologna Prediction & Betting Tips - Europa League
Europe - Europa League
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by Steve Ashfield | in Europa League Predictions
Aston Villa are in prime position to qualify for the Europa League semi-finals. Thursday sees the Villans host Bologna in the second leg and are 3-1 up from the away game in Italy last week. Can the Red and Blues make a comeback? Read our match prediction below.
For the winners of this tie, there is a semi-final against either Nottingham Forest or Porto. Those two clubs are level at 1-1 after their first leg in Portugal. Villa would love an all-English tie in the last four of the UEL. They are still going strong in the Premier League and are fourth in the table. The Villans have turned Villa Park into a fortress in this season's Europa League and will be confident of making it into the last four.
Bologna have it all to do to reach the semi-finals. They are playing at Villa Park for the third time in two seasons and are yet to return home to Italy with anything less than a defeat. With a two-goal deficit to claw back, the Greyhounds are in deep trouble in this tie.
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Aston Villa v Bologna Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.6 | 4.3 | 5.4 |
|
|
1.57 | 4.12 | 5.8 |
|
|
1.57 | 4.12 | 5.8 |
|
|
1.57 | 4.1 | 5.75 |
|
|
1.58 | 4.1 | 5.6 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Aston Villa and Bologna?
Our prediction for the Aston Villa vs Bologna match is: Aston Villa wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 16/04/2026 between Aston Villa and Bologna in Europa League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 42.07% for a win of Aston Villa against Bologna with odds of 1.61 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Aston Villa vs Bologna is 11.27% with odds of 4.5 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 46.66% chance ⭐ for a win of Bologna vs Aston Villa with odds of 6.09 at 888Starz.
Aston Villa - Bologna Prediction and Best Odds:
| Aston Villa Bologna Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna wins | 46.66% | 6.09 at 888Starz |
| Under 2.5 | 56.3% | 2.16 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score | 50% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Bologna | 16.9% | 11 at Bet365 |
Aston Villa vs Bologna Form
Aston Villa and Bologna Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Apr 2026 - Premier League
9 Apr 2026 - Europa League
27 Mar 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
22 Mar 2026 - Premier League
19 Mar 2026 - Europa League
15 Mar 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Mar 2026 - Premier League
19 Mar 2026 - Europa League
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
11 Feb 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Apr 2026 - Premier League
9 Apr 2026 - Europa League
27 Mar 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
15 Mar 2026 - Premier League
12 Mar 2026 - Europa League
27 Feb 2026 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Apr 2026 - Serie A
9 Apr 2026 - Europa League
5 Apr 2026 - Serie A
22 Mar 2026 - Serie A
19 Mar 2026 - Europa League
15 Mar 2026 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Apr 2026 - Serie A
9 Apr 2026 - Europa League
22 Mar 2026 - Serie A
12 Mar 2026 - Europa League
8 Mar 2026 - Serie A
26 Feb 2026 - Europa League
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Apr 2026 - Serie A
19 Mar 2026 - Europa League
15 Mar 2026 - Serie A
2 Mar 2026 - Serie A
19 Feb 2026 - Europa League
15 Feb 2026 - Serie A
Aston Villa vs Bologna Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
9 Apr 2026 - Europa League
25 Sept 2025 - Europa League
22 Oct 2024 - Champions League
Aston Villa - Bologna: Form Analysis
Aston Villa finished second in the league phase with seven wins and just one loss. The Lions won all four of their home games and made it five when they beat Lille 2-0 at home in their last 16 tie.
That victory made it eight consecutive wins in this competition. Each of their last eight home European games have been won and they are unbeaten in their last 11. Their last 18 home European fixtures have produced 16 wins with just one defeat.
Villa Park has been a Fortress this season.
Last season, Villa beat Bologna at home in the Champions League. They also met in the league phase of this competition with the home side winning 1-0. Then came last week's first leg in Italy with Villa winning that 3-1.
Bologna are eighth in Serie A and nine points adrift of the final European qualification position.
In the league phase of this competition, Bologna did win three of their four away games but of course lost the other at Villa Park. They also won away in the knockout play-off round and last 16 but needed extra time to win at Roma.
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Aston Villa against Bologna Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
M. Bizot
J. Wright
DefenderI. Maatsen
V. Lindelof
T. Mings
MidfielderDouglas Luiz
H. Elliott
L. Bogarde
A. Garcia
ForwardL. Bailey
J. Sancho
T. Abraham
M. Franceschelli
M. Pessina
DefenderN. Zortea
T. Heggem
C. Lykogiannis
MidfielderT. Pobega
N. Cambiaghi
S. Sohm
J. Odgaard
R. Orsolini
F. Castaldo
Missing players
B. Kamara
ForwardAlysson
L. Skorupski
DefenderJ. Lucumi
E. Helland
ForwardT. Dallinga
B. Dominguez
Aston Villa & Bologna Squad Analysis
When Aston Villa struggled for points and goals at the start of the season, they couldn't have imagined where they'd be in mid-April. A return to the Champions League is looking extremely likely next season. They also have a great chance of European success.
With a two-goal lead from the first leg, Aston Villa will want to get in front in this game to further extend their lead over their Serie A opponents. With three wins over them in the past two seasons, Villa will know exactly what they have to do on Thursday.
Emiliano Martinez is a doubt after being injured in the warm-up at Forest on Saturday.
Tough task for Bologna.
Bologna need their best ever European performance to reach the last four. They have played well on the road in Europe this season with five wins (one after extra time) but the other was lost at Villa.
The Greyhounds will want to be fast out of the traps and get an early goal on Thursday. Key to achieving this could be English winger Jonathan Rowe, who scored in the first leg and has now found the net three times in his last five appearances.
Conceding the first goal in the game would make it even more difficult for Bologna to mount a comeback. Jhon Lucumi will be absent due to him serving a suspension.
Most goals and assists
Aston Villa
Bologna
J. McGinn
(5 Goals)
, 
O. Watkins
(5 Goals)
F. Bernardeschi
(5 Goals)
M. Rogers
(5 Assists)
, 
E. Buendia
(5 Assists)
T. Dallinga
(2 Assists)
,
N. Zortea
(2 Assists)
,
N. Cambiaghi
(2 Assists)
,
J. Rowe
(2 Assists)
Aston Villa - Bologna Key Points
- Aston Villa have already beaten Bologna twice this season.
- Aston Villa have won their last eight UEL matches.
- Bologna also lost at Villa Park last season.
- Aston Villa have won their last eight European home games.
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Our Aston Villa vs Bologna Prediction
Aston Villa made a slow start to the season and were in the Premier League relegation zone. Now they are fourth in the table and on the verge of reaching the Europa League semi-finals. They lead this tie 3-1 from the first leg and are incredibly strong at home.
Bologna have a mountain to climb on Thursday evening. Two previous visits to Villa Park have ended in losses without them scoring. It's hard to see them getting back into this tie. Our main Aston Villa v Bologna prediction is Aston Villa wins.
Aston Villa vs Bologna Alternative Predictions
Ollie Watkins scores
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Aston Villa Bologna
| Aston Villa vs Bologna | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa wins | 1.77 | 1.61 | -9.0% |
| Draw | 4.12 | 4.5 | +9.2% |
| Bologna wins | 4.83 | 6.09 | +26.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Bologna is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 26.1% since opening
- The probability of this result was 20.7% and is now 16.4% (-4.3%)
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Aston Villa vs Bologna - FAQs
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
