Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction & Betting Tips - Carabao Cup
England - Carabao Cup
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Carabao Cup Predictions
Carabao Cup fever will capture the capital this week, as Arsenal and Chelsea are set to collide in a London derby second-leg semi-final clash on Tuesday night with Wembley firmly in sight. The winner of this tie between the Gunners and the Blues will meet either Manchester City or Newcastle in the final. Check out our match prediction below.
After a thrilling opening leg at Stamford Bridge, the tie hangs in the balance with Mikel Arteta’s side holding a slender 3-2 lead. Given their season so far - currently leading the EPL standings and carrying a perfect record in the UCL - Gooners are starting to believe that this could be their year, with their side in the running to complete a quadruple.
The defeat in the first leg is the only blemish on Liam Rosenior’s record since arriving at the Bridge, and overturning the deficit in this tie will add significantly to the new boss’s growing reputation. However, the last time the Blues beat their North London rivals was when Thomas Tuchel was at the helm back in 2021. Let’s get into the key stats!
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Arsenal v Chelsea Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.71 | 3.8 | 4.4 |
|
|
1.74 | 3.86 | 4.48 |
|
|
1.74 | 3.9 | 4.52 |
|
|
1.68 | 3.9 | 4.75 |
|
|
1.72 | 4.1 | 4.8 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Arsenal and Chelsea?
Our prediction for the Arsenal vs Chelsea match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 03/02/2026 between Arsenal and Chelsea in Carabao Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 40.61% for a win of Arsenal against Chelsea with odds of 1.78 at LSbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Arsenal vs Chelsea is 30.36% with odds of 4.1 at Roobet.
- Our prediction model gives a 29.03% chance ⭐ for a win of Chelsea vs Arsenal with odds of 4.8 at Roobet.
Arsenal - Chelsea Prediction and Best Odds:
| Arsenal Chelsea Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 40.61% | 1.78 at LSbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.35% | 1.87 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 80.42% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Arsenal/Arsenal | 18.02% | 2.7 at LSbet |
Arsenal vs Chelsea Form
Arsenal and Chelsea Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
14 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
8 Jan 2026 - Premier League
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
23 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
14 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
3 Jan 2026 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
14 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
14 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
25 Jan 2026 - Premier League
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
Arsenal vs Chelsea Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
14 Jan 2026 - Carabao Cup
30 Nov 2025 - Premier League
16 Mar 2025 - Premier League
10 Nov 2024 - Premier League
23 Apr 2024 - Premier League
21 Oct 2023 - Premier League
Arsenal - Chelsea: Form Analysis
Arsenal have won the EFL Cup twice in the past (1986-87 and 1992-93) and have a one-goal advantage coming into this fixture after holding on to their lead at Stamford Bridge in the first leg.
The Gunners claimed a commanding 4-0 victory over Leeds United on Saturday in the EPL and have only lost one of their last 15 matches across all competitions (W12 D2 L1) since early December.
That sole defeat came here at the Emirates against Man United on Matchday 23 in the Premier League and is the only loss the hosts have suffered in any competition on home soil this season.
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last nine matches against Chelsea in all competitions!
Meanwhile, Chelsea have lifted the EFL Cup five times, with their last triumph coming in 2015. They have featured in three finals in recent times (2019, 2022 and 2024) but lost on each of those occasions.
Since losing the first leg of this tie, the Blues have rattled off five wins in a row across all competitions, capped off by a stunning 3-2 comeback against West Ham United this past weekend.
The visitors are on a three-match win streak on the road and scored an impressive 11 goals in this period, but they have lost their last three games at this venue and failed to score in the last two.
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Arsenal against Chelsea Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Substitutes
D. Raya
DefenderC. Mosquera
R. Calafiori
B. White
MidfielderC. Norgaard
M. Lewis-Skelly
L. Trossard
G. Jesus
K. Havertz
T. Sharman-Lowe
DefenderB. Badiashile
J. Acheampong
C. Holland
C. Palmer
A. Garnacho
M. Guiu
Estevao
S. Mheuka
Missing players
M. Merino
ForwardB. Saka
T. Adarabioyo
L. Colwill
MidfielderD. Essugo
R. Lavia
ForwardM. Mudryk
J. Gittens
Arsenal & Chelsea Squad Analysis
Martin Zubimendi netted what turned out to be the winner in the first leg of this tie, and he was on the scoresheet again at the weekend, scoring the first of the team’s four goals at Elland Road.
After returning from his lengthy absence in their UCL victory over Kairat, Kai Havertz got his first start of the season over the weekend, and he will be hoping to get some more minutes under his belt in this match.
Bukayo Saka was a late withdrawal from the Gunners squad against Leeds and is a doubt for this fixture. Mikel Merino and young Max Dowman are ruled out through injury for this one.
Joao Pedro has six goal contributions in his last five games across all competitions!
The Brazilian came off the bench to kickstart his side’s comeback against the Irons at the weekend before providing the assist for Enzo Fernandez’s dramatic winner in the second minute of stoppage time.
Alejandro Garnacho has made a couple of sensational cameos in this competition. He scored both his team’s goals in the first leg of this tie while also bagging a brace in the 3-1 victory over Cardiff in the quarter-final.
The visitors have several players sidelined with injuries at present, including Dario Essugo, Tosin Adarabioyo, Romeo Lavia, Caleb Wiley and long-term absentee Levi Colwill.
Most goals and assists
Arsenal
Chelsea
L. Trossard
(1 Goals)
, 
E. Eze
(1 Goals)
,
B. Saka
(1 Goals)
,
E. Nwaneri
(1 Goals)
, 
V. Gyokeres
(1 Goals)
,
B. White
(1 Goals)
, 
M. Zubimendi
(1 Goals)
, 
K. Havertz
(1 Goals)
A. Garnacho
(4 Goals)
M. Lewis-Skelly
(2 Assists)
,
D. Rice
(2 Assists)
J. Gittens
(2 Assists)
, 
A. Santos
(2 Assists)
Arsenal - Chelsea Key Points
- Five of Arsenal’s last seven games have ended with both teams scoring.
- Arsenal have scored two or more goals in nine of their last 10 home matches.
- Eight of Chelsea’s last 10 games have ended with both teams scoring.
- Chelsea have scored two or more goals in five of their last seven away matches.
- Both teams scored in three of the last four matches between these sides.
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Our Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction
While Arsenal are clear favourites in this contest, they have not been as solid in defence at home recently compared to earlier in the season, keeping only one clean sheet in their last seven matches at the Emirates.
Since losing the first leg of this tie, Chelsea have recorded five wins on the bounce, including two incredible comeback victories against West Ham and Napoli, and they need to overturn another deficit in this one. Given these sides’ recent performances, we feel there will be a few goals in this match. Our Arsenal vs Chelsea prediction is BTTS.
Arsenal vs Chelsea Alternative Predictions
More than 2.5 goals
Arsenal have scored two or more goals in nine of their last 10 home matches, while Chelsea have netted 11 goals in their last three away games.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Arsenal Chelsea
| Arsenal vs Chelsea | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 1.6 | 1.78 | +11.3% |
| Draw | 4.2 | 4.1 | -2.4% |
| Chelsea wins | 5.25 | 4.8 | -8.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Arsenal is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 11.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 62.5% and is now 56.2% (-6.3%)
Arsenal vs Chelsea - FAQs
The Carabao Cup semi-final second leg between Arsenal and Chelsea will take place on February 3 at 20:00 GMT.
The Carabao Cup semi-final second leg between Arsenal and Chelsea will be played at the Emirates Stadium in London.
The Carabao Cup semi-final second leg between Arsenal and Chelsea will be broadcast live on Sky Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our Carabao Cup livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
