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by Steve Ashfield | in Tennis Predictions
Unseeded pair Alexei Popyrin and Matteo Berrettini meet in round one of Vienna's Erste Open. Next up for the winner of this indoor hard court match will be either seventh seed Andrey Rublev or unseeded Cameron Norrie. Here's our match prediction.
Alexei Popyrin has only won seven of his 19 hard court matches played in 2025. Three of his last four matches have ended in defeat, most recently a three-set loss to Sebastian Korda in last week's Stockholm Open.
The Australian hasn't won two matches in a tournament since Toronto in August. He's 48th in the live rankings. This is the fourth match between Popyrin and Berrettini. Popyrin won the most recent meeting last year.
All three previous matches were played on hard courts and one of Berrettini's wins was in this tournament three years ago. There have been four tie-breaks played in their three matches so a side-bet on one here may well be a winner.
Matteo Berrettini also played in the Stockholm Open and lost in round two to Ugo Humbert. He's also lost three of his last four matches and hasn't made it past round two of a tournament since May and that was on clay and is 59th in the live rankings.
We tip over 23.5 games to be played.
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The Best Betting Odds for Alexei Popyrin v Matteo Berrettini Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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2.3 | 1.62 |
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2.3 | 1.62 |
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2.2 | 1.65 |
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2.2 | 1.6 |
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2.2 | 1.7 |
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Who will win the Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo Berrettini Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo Berrettini match is: over 23.5 games to be played.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo Berrettini game on 22/10/2025 of the current ATP Vienna season:
- Alexei Popyrin has a 48.82% chance to win against Matteo Berrettini according to Bet365 ⭐ with the odds of 2.3.
- Matteo Berrettini has a 51.18% probability of winning facing Alexei Popyrin ⭐ with odds of 1.7 at Unibet.
Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo Berrettini Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Alexei Popyrin has a 48.82 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Alexei Popyrin | 48.82 % |
| Matteo Berrettini | 51.18 % |
Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo Berrettini Form
Alexei Popyrin and Matteo Berrettini Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
13 Oct 2025 - Stockholm Open
28 Aug 2025 - ATP US Open
26 Aug 2025 - ATP US Open
12 Aug 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
10 Aug 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
4 Aug 2025 - ATP Toronto
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
16 Oct 2025 - Stockholm Open
14 Oct 2025 - Stockholm Open
1 Oct 2025 - ATP Shanghai Masters
26 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
23 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
18 Sep 2025 - ATP Hangzhou Open
Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo Berrettini Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
29 Oct 2024 - Rolex Paris Masters
31 Aug 2019 - ATP US Open
Alexei Popyrin - Matteo Berrettini Key Points
- The two previous best-of-three sets matches between Popyrin and Berrettini both had over 23.5 games played.
- The three matches between these two players have seen four tie-breaks and a 7-5 set played.
- Over 23.5 games have been played in each of the last 13 best-of-three sets matches played by Popyrin.
- A 7-5 or 7-6 set would help our prediction, Popyrin has played at least one in 15 of his last 19 matches.
- Three of Berrettini's last four matches have seen a 7-5 or 7-6 set played.
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Our Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo Berrettini Prediction
Both of these players could do with a deep run in a tournament. Alexei Popyrin has been struggling for results since August but doesn't lose matches by a heavy margin. His losses usually see him win a set and a lot of games being played in each set.
Matteo Berrettini has had another year plagued by injuries. He has struggled for consistency and lost in round two in last week's Stockholm Open. Side bets on three sets and a tie-break are advisable. Our main Alexei Popyrin v Matteo Berrettini prediction is over 23.5 games to be played.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
