Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction & Betting Tips - LaLiga
Spain - LaLiga
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Nella Wagah | in LaLiga Predictions
With a game to spare, Alaves are safe from relegation in La Liga and can afford to take it easy against Rayo Vallecano. Visitors Rayo eye a win to aid in their top seven push, while Alaves, four points behind, are only hoping for a high finish. The conditions look favorable for Alaves here, having won three of their last five games, and our prediction heads that direction.
Among the teams Alaves have recently beaten was Barcelona, and defeating Oviedo 1-0 was their second straight clean sheet coming into this game.
It will also come as a confidence boost that the Babazorros have won three of the last four times they hosted this matchup.
Rayo Vallecano have this game to try and rise up to the European football slots. In case they fail to make it via their La Liga position, the visitors still have another route.
They are set to play in a European final for the first time when they meet Crystal Palace in the Conference League title decider. It is expected that Rayo will attach more importance to the Palace game.
That could mean resting key players, which doesn’t guarantee an improvement on their away form. The Thunderbolts haven’t lived to their billing on the road, going winless in nine of the last 10 in La Liga. They lost six times in that run.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Alavés v Rayo Vallecano Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.46 | 3.35 | 3 |
|
|
2.49 | 3.26 | 2.9 |
|
|
2.42 | 3.3 | 2.96 |
|
|
2.5 | 3.3 | 2.8 |
|
|
2.48 | 3.25 | 2.84 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Alavés and Rayo Vallecano?
Our prediction for the Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano match is: Alaves wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 23/05/2026 between Alavés and Rayo Vallecano in LaLiga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 38.39% for a win of Alavés against Rayo Vallecano with odds of 2.55 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano is 29.12% with odds of 3.44 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 32.49% chance ⭐ for a win of Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés with odds of 3.07 at 888Starz.
Alavés - Rayo Vallecano Prediction and Best Odds:
| Alavés Rayo Vallecano Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Alavés wins | 38.39% | 2.55 at Tonybet |
| Under 2.5 | 58.92% | 1.84 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score | 50% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Alavés/Alavés | 15.22% | 4 at Bet365 |
Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano Form
Alavés and Rayo Vallecano's standings in the LaLiga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8
|
50 | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | -3 |
|
14
|
43 | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | -12 |
Alavés and Rayo Vallecano Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 May 2026 - LaLiga
13 May 2026 - LaLiga
9 May 2026 - LaLiga
2 May 2026 - LaLiga
25 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
21 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 May 2026 - LaLiga
2 May 2026 - LaLiga
25 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
5 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
13 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
23 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 May 2026 - LaLiga
9 May 2026 - LaLiga
21 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
11 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
22 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
8 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 May 2026 - LaLiga
14 May 2026 - LaLiga
11 May 2026 - LaLiga
7 May 2026 - Conference League
3 May 2026 - LaLiga
30 Apr 2026 - Conference League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 May 2026 - LaLiga
11 May 2026 - LaLiga
30 Apr 2026 - Conference League
26 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
23 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
9 Apr 2026 - Conference League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 May 2026 - LaLiga
7 May 2026 - Conference League
3 May 2026 - LaLiga
16 Apr 2026 - Conference League
12 Apr 2026 - LaLiga
22 Mar 2026 - LaLiga
Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
0 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
14 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
26 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
29 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
26 Oct 2024 - LaLiga
10 Mar 2024 - LaLiga
15 Sept 2023 - LaLiga
Alavés against Rayo Vallecano Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
G. Swiderski
R. Fernandez
DefenderY. Enriquez
J. Otto
MidfielderA. Guevara
Calebe
C. Protesoni
C. Alena
D. Suarez
A. Manas
I. Diabate
M. Diaz
Juanpe
A. Batalla
DefenderA. Ratiu
P. Chavarria
J. Vertrouwd
F. Lejeune
MidfielderP. Ciss
F. Perez
ForwardS. Camello
Alemao
J. de Frutos
O. Trejo
Missing players
U. Lopez
I. Palazon
D. Mendez
Most goals and assists
Alavés
Rayo Vallecano
T. Martinez
(14 Goals)
J. de Frutos
(10 Goals)
C. Alena
(4 Assists)
, 
A. Rebbach
(4 Assists)
,
A. Hidalgo
(4 Assists)
A. Garcia
(5 Assists)
Alavés - Rayo Vallecano Key Points
- Alaves have won three of their last five league games.
- Seven of Alaves’ 11 league wins were recorded at home.
- Rayo have lost six times in their last nine away league matches.
- Alaves beat Rayo three of the last four times they hosted this fixture.
- Away from home, Rayo have managed four wins in 18 league games.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction
Quique Sanchez Flores has been a revelation since taking charge at Alaves and will be looking to keep that up. Ahead of this game, Alaves have been collecting crucial points in their push for survival and have the chance to finish strongly.
Having collected their most points at home, we will back them against a Rayo side preparing for a major game in Europe. Rayo haven’t been at their best on the road and in their recent visits to Alaves as well. With that in mind, our prediction for Alaves v Rayo Vallecano is that Alaves wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Alavés Rayo Vallecano
| Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alavés wins | 2.18 | 2.55 | +17.0% |
| Draw | 3.4 | 3.44 | +1.2% |
| Rayo Vallecano wins | 3.15 | 3.07 | -2.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Alavés is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 17.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 45.9% and is now 39.2% (-6.7%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
