Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction & Betting Tips - Copa del Rey
Spain - Copa del Rey
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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in Football Predictions
Alavés and Rayo Vallecano continue their bitter rivalry into the 2025/26 Copa del Rey. El Glorioso is eager to get their revenge and end its three-game losing streak against Los Franjirrojos. There has been no draw in their last ten meetings, which begs the question: who wins the 11th? See our best match prediction below.
It has been bad news after bad news for Alavés, who now sit 16th in La Liga and are only two points clear of the relegation zone. Alavés just lost another game to Villarreal (3-1), extending their winless run to four games in their last five. And over their last ten games, Alavés has lost six games and won only three.
That's just not the kind of form they'd want to be entering with against Vallecano. In contrast, Los Franjirrojos has back-to-back games, lost only one of its last seven, and won four games in that span. The latest was a 2-1 win over Mallorca, which they managed to do with a late 80th-minute red card.
Performance-wise, Vallecano have been the much better team, earning the 10th spot in the league despite scoring the second-fewest goals (16). And when they met Alavés in October, it was Vallecano who came out on top with a 1-0 win. But they run it back on Wednesday?
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Alavés v Rayo Vallecano Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.28 | 2.95 | 3.3 |
|
|
2.71 | 2.99 | 2.86 |
|
|
2.34 | 3.02 | 3.38 |
|
|
2.55 | 3 | 3 |
|
|
2.5 | 2.96 | 3.05 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Alavés and Rayo Vallecano?
Our prediction for the Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano match is: Rayo Vallecano wins or draws.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 14/01/2026 between Alavés and Rayo Vallecano in Copa del Rey :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 41.51% for a win of Alavés against Rayo Vallecano with odds of 2.71 at Melbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano is 13.12% with odds of 3.1 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 45.38% chance ⭐ for a win of Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés with odds of 3.4 at LSbet.
Alavés - Rayo Vallecano Prediction and Best Odds:
| Alavés Rayo Vallecano Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano wins | 45.38% | 3.4 at LSbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | 2.62 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score | 50% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Rayo Vallecano | 18.96% | 7.5 at LSbet |
Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano Form
Alavés and Rayo Vallecano Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
4 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
20 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
17 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
14 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
17 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
14 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
22 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
2 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
20 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
2 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
29 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
8 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
30 Oct 2025 - Copa del Rey
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
6 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
2 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
21 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
18 Dec 2025 - Conference League
15 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
2 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
18 Dec 2025 - Conference League
15 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
1 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
9 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
21 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
11 Dec 2025 - Conference League
7 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
4 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
27 Nov 2025 - Conference League
Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
0 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
26 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
29 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
26 Oct 2024 - LaLiga
10 Mar 2024 - LaLiga
15 Sept 2023 - LaLiga
16 Apr 2022 - LaLiga
Alavés against Rayo Vallecano Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
G. Swiderski
A. Sivera
DefenderV. Parada
C. Ballestero
J. Otto
P. Ibáñez
A. Blanco
J. Guridi
C. Alena
C. Vicente
D. Morcillo
A. Molina
A. Batalla
DefenderM. de las Sias
P. Chavarria
J. Vertrouwd
MidfielderP. Díaz
I. Palazon
A. Garcia
J. De Frutos
Alemao
C. Martin
Missing players
L. Boye
A. Mumin
L. Felipe
MidfielderD. Mendez
Alavés - Rayo Vallecano Key Points
- Vallecano beat Alavés in their only meeting this season, and have done so in four of their last five meetings.
- Alavés are winless in their last three games, while Vallecano are unbeaten in their last three.
- Vallecano are undefeated in 17 of their last 21 games in all competitions.
- Alavés are winless in two-thirds of their last 21 games.
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Our Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction
Rayo Vallecano might not take another win in this knockout game, but we don't see them losing on full-time. They've just been a much better team compared to Alavés, especially on the defensive front. And losing only four of their last 21 games is a testament to that, compared to El Glorioso, who are winless in 14 of their last 21 games.
Even in recent times, opponents haven't tasted defeat in Alavés’ last three games, while the opposite is true for Vallecano’s last three games. Hence, our Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano prediction is that Rayo Vallecano wins or draws.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Alavés Rayo Vallecano
| Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alavés wins | 2.77 | 2.71 | -2.2% |
| Draw | 2.98 | 3.1 | +4.0% |
| Rayo Vallecano wins | 2.82 | 3.4 | +20.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Rayo Vallecano is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 20.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 35.5% and is now 29.4% (-6.0%)
Get up to €100 to bet on the Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano game
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
