AC Milan vs Benfica Lisbon Prediction & Betting Tips - Europa League
Europe - Europa League
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Europa League Predictions
It’s the clash of old European rivals at San Siro on Wednesday as AC Milan welcome Benfica on matchday one of the league phase in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League (UEL). This match between the ‘Rossoneri’ and the ‘Eagles’ could end up producing entertainment and our match prediction of BTTS vouches for that.
Milan are back in Europe after a one-year absence, although they would have wanted to be in the UEFA Champions League. While that should take nothing away from the hosts, new coach Ruben Amorim would be under pressure to better what he did in this competition with Manchester United in 2024-25 – who finished as runners-up.
Benfica had to come through the qualifiers – from the second round onwards – to reach the league phase of this competition for the first time since it was introduced. Having ticked most of the boxes with regard to their form, this could be their best chance to post their first-ever head-to-head victory. Read our analysis, team news, and match predictions to find if that is where we think this game is heading!
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AC Milan v Benfica Lisbon Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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2.18 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
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2.16 | 3.61 | 3.43 |
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2.11 | 3.54 | 3.34 |
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2.11 | 3.54 | 3.34 |
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2.12 | 3.52 | 3.36 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between AC Milan and Benfica Lisbon?
Our prediction for the AC Milan vs Benfica Lisbon match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 16/09/2026 between AC Milan and Benfica Lisbon in Europa League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 25.59% for a win of AC Milan against Benfica Lisbon with odds of 2.2 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between AC Milan vs Benfica Lisbon is 23.64% with odds of 3.61 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 50.76% chance ⭐ for a win of Benfica Lisbon vs AC Milan with odds of 3.45 at Shangrila.
AC Milan vs Benfica Lisbon Form
AC Milan and Benfica Lisbon Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Sept 2026 - Serie A
6 Sept 2026 - Serie A
28 Aug 2026 - Serie A
23 Aug 2026 - Serie A
15 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
8 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Aug 2026 - Serie A
15 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
5 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
24 May 2026 - Serie A
10 May 2026 - Serie A
26 Apr 2026 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Sept 2026 - Serie A
6 Sept 2026 - Serie A
23 Aug 2026 - Serie A
8 Aug 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
25 Jul 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
17 May 2026 - Serie A
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Sept 2026 - Liga Portugal
9 Sept 2026 - Liga Portugal
5 Sept 2026 - Liga Portugal
31 Aug 2026 - Liga Portugal
27 Aug 2026 - Europa League
20 Aug 2026 - Europa League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Sept 2026 - Liga Portugal
31 Aug 2026 - Liga Portugal
20 Aug 2026 - Europa League
9 Aug 2026 - Liga Portugal
6 Aug 2026 - Europa League
30 Jul 2026 - Europa League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Sept 2026 - Liga Portugal
5 Sept 2026 - Liga Portugal
27 Aug 2026 - Europa League
17 Aug 2026 - Liga Portugal
13 Aug 2026 - Europa League
23 Jul 2026 - Europa League
AC Milan vs Benfica Lisbon Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
28 Jul 2019 - International Champions Cup
AC Milan - Benfica Lisbon: Form Analysis
Milan had to dig deep and come back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 away at Lazio in Serie A last weekend. It was their second stalemate in a row, after a 1-1 result against Juventus on the previous matchday. Nevertheless, the Rossoneri are unbeaten in competitive action this season (W2, D2) as they look to start in Europe on a high.
Their only home game this season saw Milan win 2-0 against Venezia, as they look to continue their strength of playing at home in Europe. Milan are unbeaten in their last four home European games (W3, D1).
Milan won six of their last nine home matches in Europe.
Benfica defeated Gil Vicente 3-1 at home last weekend to make it a seventh consecutive win in all competitions. The ‘Eagles’ are riding high on their momentum, with that sequence also involving the 6-2 aggregate win over Aarhus in the previous round.
That included winning both legs 3-1, making it six matches out of their last seven to see Benfica scoring at least three goals. They have also won their last four away games, giving enough tailwind coming into this fixture.
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AC Milan vs Benfica Lisbon last Lineups
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
L. Torriani
P. Terracciano
DefenderD. Bartesaghi
F. Tomori
S. Diawara
M. Gabbia
MidfielderA. Jashari
F. Terracciano
D. Moreira
O. Hutchinson
C. Comotto
Y. Musah
A. Saelemaekers
ForwardC. Pulisic
F. Camarda
A. Trubin
DefenderA. Circati
S. El Karouani
MidfielderG. Sudakov
F. Aursnes
J. Palhinha
C. Echeverri
M. Silva
ForwardD. Lukebakio
J. Kaminski
A. Cabral
J. Duran
Missing players
M. Gabbia
AC Milan & Benfica Lisbon Squad Analysis
Milan have one less concern to worry about, as they have a fully-fit squad at Amorim’s disposal. Diego Moreira could be pushing for a starting berth in place of Pervis Estupinian, while there may be some changes in the attack.
Amorim’s favoured 3-4-2-1 system could see former Benfica product Goncalo Ramos start as the lone forward. He could be supported by Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Alexis Saelemaekers in the attacking third.
Vangelis Pavlidis has four goals across his last four matches for Benfica.
Pavlidis will line up as the lone striker in Benfica’s 4-2-3-1 system, with Rafa Silva likely to start on the wing, while Andreas Schjelderup has one goal and two assists across his last two games.
The visitors also have a near-complete squad at their disposal, with right-back Alexander Bah the only confirmed absentee for this trip. Joao Palhinha came off the bench in their last game and could be up for a starting role here for Benfica.
AC Milan - Benfica Lisbon Key Points
- Seven of Milan’s last ten matches in European competitions saw both teams score.
- Three of the last four head-to-head matches saw goals from both teams.
- Benfica have scored at least three goals in eight of their last 11 matches in all competitions.
- Both teams scored goals in seven of Benfica’s last ten matches.
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Our AC Milan vs Benfica Lisbon Prediction
Milan bounced back to draw at the weekend for a second consecutive draw, with concerns among the fans that their early-season winning momentum may have evaporated. This could be a challenging start for the Rossoneri because Benfica come here on the back of a seven-game winning sequence and perhaps their best chance to post a first-ever head-to-head win.
Seven of Milan’s last ten home games in European competitions have seen goals from both teams, and that’s more likely to repeat here. That’s why our AC Milan vs Benfica Lisbon prediction is BTTS.
AC Milan vs Benfica Lisbon Alternative Predictions
Draw
Benfica have never won against AC Milan but come here in better form than their counterparts. This game could be a challenge for the hosts, and a draw could be on the cards.
Vangelis Pavlidis Over 1.5 Shots on Target
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
