1 Fsv Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga
Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
It’s a relegation six-pointer between two struggling sides in the Bundesliga as matchday 15 sees basement club Mainz host St Pauli. This match on Sunday in Mainz between the 18th-placed ‘05ers’ and the 16th-placed ‘Kiezkicker’ comes with our prediction of less than 2.5 goals.
With seven points (W1, D4, L9), Mainz are at the bottom of the standings and six points adrift of the safety zone. St Pauli’s 11 points (W3, D2, L9) keep them two points adrift of safety places ahead of this round.
Mainz won 2-0 on Thursday against Samsunspor in the UEFA Conference League to directly advance to the round of 16. That is a relief, but their league form remains a big concern.
A 2-2 away draw at Bayern Munich last weekend was a positive result, but they haven’t won since matchday four. Even at home, Mainz have lost five of seven league matches this season (D2).
St Pauli won 2-1 at home against Heidenheim last weekend to continue their recent impressive resurgence. They have two wins and a draw in their last three competitive matches.
Four points in their last two league games have given hope of avoiding the drop, but their away form landed just one point across the six recent league trips (D1, L5), which is something they need to address.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
1 Fsv Mainz 05 v St. Pauli Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.02 | 3.45 | 4.1 |
|
|
1.92 | 3.3 | 4.34 |
|
|
1.97 | 3.32 | 4.12 |
|
|
2 | 3.3 | 4 |
|
|
1.96 | 3.3 | 4 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between 1 Fsv Mainz 05 and St. Pauli?
Our prediction for the 1 Fsv Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli match is: less than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 21/12/2025 between 1 Fsv Mainz 05 and St. Pauli in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 52.02% for a win of 1 Fsv Mainz 05 against St. Pauli with odds of 2.07 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between 1 Fsv Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli is 24.48% with odds of 3.51 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 23.5% chance ⭐ for a win of St. Pauli vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 with odds of 4.34 at Melbet.
1 Fsv Mainz 05 - St. Pauli Prediction and Best Odds:
| 1 Fsv Mainz 05 St. Pauli Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Fsv Mainz 05 wins | 52.02% | 2.07 at 888Starz |
| Under 2.5 | 58.86% | 1.88 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 50% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : 1 Fsv Mainz 05/1 Fsv Mainz 05 | 21.04% | 3.2 at Bet365 |
1 Fsv Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli Form
1 Fsv Mainz 05 and St. Pauli's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
10
|
40 | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -9 |
|
18
|
26 | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -31 |
1 Fsv Mainz 05 and St. Pauli Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Dec 2025 - Conference League
14 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
11 Dec 2025 - Conference League
5 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
30 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
27 Nov 2025 - Conference League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Dec 2025 - Conference League
5 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
21 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Nov 2025 - Conference League
1 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
29 Oct 2025 - DFB Pokal
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
11 Dec 2025 - Conference League
30 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
27 Nov 2025 - Conference League
9 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
26 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
6 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
2 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
29 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
23 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
9 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
23 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Oct 2025 - DFB Pokal
19 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
27 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Dec 2025 - Bundesliga
2 Dec 2025 - DFB Pokal
29 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
9 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
25 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
4 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
1 Fsv Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
22 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
5 Oct 2024 - Bundesliga
1 Fsv Mainz 05 against St. Pauli Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 3 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 3 - 2 - 2
Substitutes
L. Riess
DefenderS. Bell
MidfielderL. Maloney
W. Boving
N. Veratschnig
A. Nordin
A. Sieb
F. Moreno Fell
N. Weiper
B. Voll
DefenderJ. Robatsch
L. Ritzka
M. Saliakas
MidfielderC. Metcalfe
E. Ahlstrand
R. Jones
A. Ceesay
D. Sinani
Missing players
R. Zentner
DefenderP. Mwene
A. Caci
MidfielderD. Gleiber
S. Spari
DefenderE. Smith
D. Nemeth
Most goals and assists
1 Fsv Mainz 05
St. Pauli
N. Amiri
(12 Goals)
D. Sinani
(5 Goals)
B. Hollerbach
(3 Assists)
,
D. da Costa
(3 Assists)
, 
S. Becker
(3 Assists)
J. Fujita
(3 Assists)
1 Fsv Mainz 05 - St. Pauli Key Points
- Mainz and St Pauli have averaged less than one goal per match in this Bundesliga campaign.
- Four of Mainz’s last six league games saw under 2.5 goals.
- In six of their last seven home league games, Mainz saw two or fewer goals scored.
- Five of St Pauli’s last seven away league games saw fewer than three goals scored.
- Mainz won 2-0 when these sides last met in February, in the last season.
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Our 1 Fsv Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli Prediction
With only 13 goals each, Mainz and St Pauli have the joint-worst scoring record of this league campaign. They are unlikely to set excitement bells ringing here, going by their recent record. Adding an extra layer of intrigue to this contest is the fact that these two sides are in the relegation zone. Mainz have a lot of ground to cover, while St Pauli are two points adrift of the safety places.
A cagey affair could be on the cards, and our 1 Fsv Mainz 05 vs St Pauli prediction is less than 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis 1 Fsv Mainz 05 St. Pauli
| 1 Fsv Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Fsv Mainz 05 wins | 2.11 | 2.07 | -1.9% |
| Draw | 3.59 | 3.51 | -2.2% |
| St. Pauli wins | 3.8 | 4.34 | +14.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- 1 Fsv Mainz 05 is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 1.9% since opening
- The probability of this result was 47.4% and is now 48.3% (0.9%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
