Europe - Conference League
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Conference League Predictions
Fresh from sacking their manager, Fiorentina will look to extend their winning start to the league phase of the 2025-26 UEFA Conference League as they travel to Mainz for matchday three. These two sides are stacked together, and this match on Thursday between the sixth-placed Die Nullfunfer and the top-placed La Viola comes with our prediction of less than 2.5 goals.
Both teams have six points after two matches, two of the six teams with such a record. Additionally, Fiorentina and Mainz are yet to concede a goal in the league phase of the competition. That may be a ray of light for the visitors, but the sacking of manager Stefano Pioli has thrown them into disarray.
Mainz are no different in terms of their domestic form but will hope to make the most of Fiorentina’s struggles. Can the visitors keep their problems aside and trouble their hosts? Or, will the hosts make it three wins out of three in the Conference League? Read more to find our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
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The Best Betting Odds for 1 Fsv Mainz 05 v Fiorentina Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.2 | 3.25 | 3.3 |
|
|
2.25 | 3.25 | 3.3 |
|
|
2.2 | 3.1 | 3.25 |
|
|
2.2 | 3.25 | 3.1 |
|
|
2.25 | 3.35 | 3.15 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between 1 Fsv Mainz 05 and Fiorentina?
Our prediction for the 1 Fsv Mainz 05 vs Fiorentina match is: less than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 06/11/2025 between 1 Fsv Mainz 05 and Fiorentina in Conference League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 31.74% for a win of 1 Fsv Mainz 05 against Fiorentina with odds of 2.25 at Betfred.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between 1 Fsv Mainz 05 vs Fiorentina is 30.38% with odds of 3.35 at Unibet.
- Our prediction model gives a 37.88% chance ⭐ for a win of Fiorentina vs 1 Fsv Mainz 05 with odds of 3.3 at Bet365.
1 Fsv Mainz 05 vs Fiorentina Form
1 Fsv Mainz 05 and Fiorentina's standings in the Conference League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
|
6
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
1 Fsv Mainz 05 and Fiorentina Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
29 Oct 2025 - DFB Pokal
26 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
23 Oct 2025 - Conference League
18 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
5 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
29 Oct 2025 - DFB Pokal
23 Oct 2025 - Conference League
18 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
27 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
13 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
5 Oct 2025 - Bundesliga
2 Oct 2025 - Conference League
20 Sept 2025 - Bundesliga
31 Aug 2025 - Bundesliga
21 Aug 2025 - Conference League
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Nov 2025 - Serie A
29 Oct 2025 - Serie A
26 Oct 2025 - Serie A
23 Oct 2025 - Conference League
19 Oct 2025 - Serie A
5 Oct 2025 - Serie A
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Nov 2025 - Serie A
26 Oct 2025 - Serie A
5 Oct 2025 - Serie A
2 Oct 2025 - Conference League
21 Sept 2025 - Serie A
13 Sept 2025 - Serie A
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Oct 2025 - Serie A
23 Oct 2025 - Conference League
19 Oct 2025 - Serie A
28 Sept 2025 - Serie A
31 Aug 2025 - Serie A
24 Aug 2025 - Serie A
1 Fsv Mainz 05 - Fiorentina: Form Analysis
Mainz won both their matches of the league phase in this competition by a 1-0 scoreline, defeating Omonia away on matchday one and Zrinjski at home on matchday two.
That win was followed by a three-game winless sequence (D1, L2) which was bookended by the 1-1 home draw against Werder Bremen. They have had indifferent results at home, losing four of their last six matches here.
Mainz haven’t lost their seven recent home matches in UEFA competitions.
Fiorentina won 2-0 at home against Sigma on matchday one before winning 3-0 away at Rapid Vienna. They are pushing to make it three wins out of three, but recent form could let them down.
La Viola lost 1-0 at home to Lecce last weekend and have four defeats from their last six games. That has led to the dismissal of Pioli, as Fiorentina look for answers to their away form of one win and three draws from their last six trips, while losing two.
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1 Fsv Mainz 05 vs Fiorentina last Lineups
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Missing players
M. Dal
A. Caci
T. Lamptey
R. Gosens
ForwardC. Kouame
1 Fsv Mainz 05 & Fiorentina Squad Analysis
Mainz have no fresh injury concerns as they look to make the most of their home support. They are likely to use the 3-4-3 formation with the forward line led by Nelson Weiper, who has two goals to his name.
The midfield trio is led by Nadiem Amiri, who has chalked up seven goals in the season so far. Three of those goals have come in the Conference League.
Mainz saw five of their Conference League goals come from two players.
Fiorentina didn’t have a single formation under Pioli, as they used 3-5-2, 3-4-3, and 4-2-3-1. It remains to be seen if the interim manager sticks to their strength of 4-2-3-1.
Whichever way they line up, the visitors will miss Robin Gosens, who has two goals and assists this season. Their strike force could run around Moise Kean (two goals, two assists), while Albert Gudmundsson (three goals, two assists) could be another key player for the visitors.
Most goals and assists
1 Fsv Mainz 05
Fiorentina
N. Amiri
(5 Goals)
R. Mandragora
(2 Goals)
, 
A. Gudmundsson
(2 Goals)
,
M. Kean
(2 Goals)
,
C. Ndour
(2 Goals)
B. Hollerbach
(1 Assists)
,
N. Amiri
(1 Assists)
, 
K. Sano
(1 Assists)
, 
A. Hanche-Olsen
(1 Assists)
E. Kouadio
(1 Assists)
,
N. Fortini
(1 Assists)
,
H. Caviglia
(1 Assists)
,
C. Ndour
(1 Assists)
,
A. Gudmundsson
(1 Assists)
1 Fsv Mainz 05 and Fiorentina Stats in Conference League
1 Fsv Mainz 05 - Fiorentina Key Points
- Five of Mainz’s last eight matches saw under 2.5 goals.
- Mainz and Fiorentina are yet to concede a goal in the league phase of the Conference League.
- Six of Mainz’s last eight home matches this season have produced fewer than three goals.
- Three of Fiorentina’s last six away matches saw two or fewer goals.
- Excluding qualifiers, Mainz kept a clean sheet in their last four European matches.
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Our 1 Fsv Mainz 05 vs Fiorentina Prediction
This is a very interesting match between two teams struggling domestically but packing their punch in Europe. Mainz have been languishing in the Bundesliga relegation zone, but that hasn’t stopped them from winning both league phase matches of this competition. Fiorentina have also won both their Conference League matches in the league phase but are stuck at the bottom of the Serie A table. To add to the intrigue, both teams are yet to concede in this competition proper.
With both teams boasting strong defensive records, our 1 Fsv Mainz 05 vs Fiorentina prediction is less than 2.5 goals.
1 Fsv Mainz 05 vs Fiorentina - Other Interesting Predictions
Mainz wins
The uncertainty around Fiorentina’s management could work to the home team’s advantage as Mainz aim to continue their winning start in this competition. This could be their chance to outshine, so back Mainz to win this match.
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1 Fsv Mainz 05 vs Fiorentina match : Frequently asked questions
The 1 Fsv Mainz 05 vs Fiorentina UEFA Conference League match is set to be shown on TNT Sports in the UK. In Germany, the match is broadcast live by RTL and Sky. For the fans in Italy, Sky Italia is the official broadcaster.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our UEFA Conference League Livescore page!
Let’s start with 1 Fsv Mainz 05. They will next face – in that order – Universitatea Craiova (away), Lech Poznan (away), and Samsunspor (home).
Fiorentina will play AEK Athens (home), Dynamo Kyiv (home), and Lausanne-Sport (away).
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
