Qarabag FK vs Newcastle: Can Eddie Howe’s Magpies Conquer the Horsemen in Baku?

by Geoffrey Ejiga | by Cydias Aujard

image Qarabag FK vs Newcastle: Can Eddie Howe’s Magpies Conquer the Horsemen in Baku?
The Champions League anthem will ring out in Azerbaijan tonight, but for Newcastle United, this is no celebratory lap. Eddie Howe’s men have touched down in Baku after a gruelling 2,500-mile journey for a historic first-leg knockout tie that feels mispriced on paper. Facing a Qarabag side that has turned the Tofiq Bahramov Stadium into a fortress, the Magpies have an uphill battle ahead as they fight exhaustion, a hostile atmosphere, and a mounting injury crisis.

The Horsemen Waiting in the Shadows

Qarabag FK, famously known as the Horsemen, are making history as the first Azerbaijani side to reach the Champions League knockout stages. While they limped out of the league phase following a 6-0 thrashing at Anfield, their home form is a different beast entirely.

This season, Gurban Gurbanov’s side held Chelsea to a 2-2 draw in Baku and secured a scalp against Eintracht Frankfurt. They play a high-octane, fearless style of football that has seen them score at least twice in six of their last seven home European fixtures.

With star attackers Leandro Andrade and Camilo Durán having combined for over 50% of the team's goals this season, Qarabag definitely have the tools in their shed to hurt a Newcastle defence that has slipped up in recent games. Make sure to check out our expert’s Qarabag vs Newcastle prediction before you watching the game!

Newcastle’s Engine Room Crisis

Perhaps the biggest obstacle for Eddie Howe is the vacancy in his midfield. The loss of captain Bruno Guimarães to a long-term hamstring injury is a hammer blow. Since his debut in 2022, Newcastle has statistically failed to win a single game when the Brazilian is absent.

With Joelinton, Fabian Schär, and Emil Krafth also sidelined, the engine room is looking dangerously thin. The creative burden now shifts to Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes, who have remarkably been involved in 82.35% of Newcastle’s 17 Champions League goals this term.

  • Anthony Gordon has scored 6 UCL goals (joint fourth-most) and provided two assists.
  • Harvey Barnes has scored 5 UCL goals with one assist.
  • Gordon also has the joint second-most goal contributions in the UCL so far (8).

If Newcastle is to survive the Baku cauldron, they need their wingers to provide an outlet for a defence that will likely be under sustained pressure.

A Historic First

This tie is a statistical anomaly: it is the only matchup in this season's knockout playoffs featuring two clubs that have never previously played a Champions League knockout game. For Newcastle, a result here would be the foundation for a legendary night at St. James' Park on February 24th.

"We want to turn these moments into history," Howe told reporters upon arrival. "It’s about the excitement of the possibility, not the burden of the pressure."

However, if Newcastle cannot solve their post-Bruno identity crisis tonight, the 2,500-mile flight back to Tyneside will feel much longer. In the chilly air of Baku, the Magpies must find a way to ground the Horsemen, or risk seeing their European dream gallop away before the second leg even begins.