NBA: what our basketball experts think for the Play-in Tournament 2025
by Yunchu Li | by Yunchu Li
How does the Play-in Tournament work?
As explained on our NBA predictions page, the teams ranked between 7th and 10th compete for the last two tickets in each conference. In this play-off mini-tournament, the team ranked 7th plays the team ranked 8th, with the winner earning a ticket to the play-offs.
The loser has a second chance by playing the winner of the match between the 9th and 10th ranked teams, for the last available ticket. The higher-ranked team has home advantage. Without further ado, check out what our basketball experts expect to reach the play-offs.
Eastern Conference: Orlando Magic (7) vs Atlanta Hawks (8)
After a superb start to the season, Orlando have unfortunately suffered a brutal slump since January. Jamahl Mosley's men were well inside the top four in the Eastern Conference, but injuries to key players such as Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs and Mo Wagner have taken their toll on the team's performances.
While the first two have returned, the other two are out for the rest of the season. As a result, the Magic plummeted into the play-in zone. However, despite these setbacks, the Floridian franchise still has the necessary resources to emerge from the play-offs and qualify for the 1st round of the playoffs.
Orlando is our favourite against the Hawks.
Since 2022, seasons have come and gone for the Hawks, who have once again endured a campaign devoid of flavour or real ambition. Nevertheless, Trae Young's performance was exceptional, finishing as the league's top passer during the regular season with an average of 11.6 assists per game! There was also the promising rookie season of our Frenchman, Zaccharie Risacher, who is one of the favourites for the rookie of the year award.
However, on a collective level, things are not going well at all. The team is unable to string together convincing performances and no collective identity is emerging. What's more, at the trade deadline in February, Atlanta opted to part company with two major players: De'Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic. That says a lot about the franchise's ambitions.
What our basketball experts think
Orlando have a much more complete squad than Atlanta. The Magic can count on talent in a number of different positions, including Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Cole Anthony. The Hawks, on the other hand, are far too reliant on Trae Young. The rest of the team doesn't seem to be up to the task. What's more, the Floridians will be able to rely on the support of their fans to put Atlanta under pressure.
An Orlando victory therefore seems very likely.
Eastern Conference: Chicago Bulls (9) vs Miami Heat (10)
Chicago endured another campaign in the doldrums of the Eastern Conference, finishing in 9th place as they did last season. The Illinois franchise even lost its best player, Zach LaVine, who was transferred to Sacramento midway through the season.
Much to everyone's surprise, this departure freed up the team, which was able to find new momentum. Buoyed by the duo of Coby White and Josh Giddey, Billy Donovan's men finished the regular season in fine form, winning 15 of their last 20 games. This new momentum suggests that the team's future looks bright.
Tyler Herro could well lead his team into the second round of the play-offs.
A pillar of the Eastern Conference, Miami had a very disappointing regular season, with a negative record of 37-45! This was the franchise's worst record since the 2014/15 season. This unsuccessful campaign on the court was also marked by events behind the scenes, notably the saga of Jimmy Butler's transfer to Golden State, which rotten the squad for several weeks.
If there is anything positive to take away from the campaign, it is the dazzling performances of Tyler Herro, who is having the best season of his career and has established himself as the Heat's number 1 option in attack. A ray of hope in a challeging time.
What our basketball experts think
Although Chicago finished the regular season very strongly and are clearly on a better run than Miami, a lack of experience could be a major factor in this type of knockout competition. On the other side of the bracket, the Heat are used to these high-pressure games. The Heat have a core of experienced players who have played in 2 NBA Finals. They include Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson. All coached by Erik Spoelstra. A Miami victory over Chicago would be anything but a surprise. Behind them, the Floridians even have what it takes to qualify for the play-offs by beating the loser of Orlando v Atlanta.
Playoff qualifiers in the East: Orlando and Miami!
Western Conference: Golden State Warriors (7) vs Memphis Grizzlies (8)
Up until mid-February, the Warriors were enjoying a lacklustre campaign, and even had a negative balance sheet. The turning point came with the arrival of Jimmy Butler in a transfer from Miami. His impact on the team's performances and results was immediate.
To conclude the regular season, Golden State won 22 of its last 30 games. Nevertheless, a couple of slip-ups in the final week cost Stephen Curry's team-mates a top-6 finish in the Western Conference and a direct qualification for the play-offs.
The Warriors finished the season well but fell apart in the last game.
The opposite was true. The Grizzlies had started the season well, quickly finishing in the top 3 of the Western Conference. However, as the months went by, the team began to lose momentum.
In the final stretch of the regular season, Ja Morant's team-mates lost 17 of their last 30 games. A real collective collapse. Faced with this difficult situation, coach Taylor Jenkins was dismissed. This all-round collapse has seen the Tennessee franchise drop to the play-offs.
What our basketball experts think
The Warriors lost a huge amount of energy in their final regular-season game, losing to the Clippers after extra time. A defeat that cost them direct qualification for the play-offs. Two days later, they'll have to get back on deck with heavy legs against a Grizzlies team that rested all its starters in their final regular-season game. Add to that Golden State's play-in history, and it's not looking good. Indeed, the Californian franchise has a record of 0 wins and 3 losses in its play-in tournament history. One of those losses was to Memphis at home in 2021.
Bis repetita? We're leaning towards a Memphis victory.
Western Conference: Sacramento Kings (9) vs Dallas Mavericks (10)
Sacramento is coming off an eventful regular season with a number of changes. After a disappointing start to the season, the Californian team's management decided to fire their coach, Mike Brown, at the end of December. Shortly afterwards, De'Aaron Fox, the team's best player, requested a trade.
His request was granted and he was transferred to San Antonio in a multi-team swap. In return, the Kings picked up Zach LaVine from Chicago. Without really shining over the rest of the season, the Kings secured the minimum with a play-in place.
DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine should make the difference.
For their part, the Mavericks experienced not just an eventful season, but a real earthquake with the historic and above all incomprehensible transfer of Luka Doncic to the Lakers on 2 February. The deal raised many questions, as Doncic is one of the best players in the league and led Dallas to the NBA Finals last season.
Following that, the Mavs' season took a nightmarish turn, with a cascade of injuries. While some players were able to return for the final weeks of the regular season, that was not the case for Kyrie Irving, who ruptured cruciate ligaments in his left knee in March.
What our basketball experts think
Unlike Dallas, Sacramento have what it takes to win this type of knockout game, thanks in particular to the presence of DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine. What's more, the Kings will be able to rely on the very hot atmosphere in their home arena, with the crowd on fire. A Sacramento victory is therefore highly likely. However, the road will not be easy, as they will then have to face the loser of the match between the Warriors and the Grizzlies on the road. With a widening gap between the two teams, a second win to qualify for the play-offs against either of them seems unlikely.
Playoff qualifiers in the West: Memphis and Golden State!
