Spain-France: Is Spain heading for another Nations League final?

After Portugal secured their spot in the Nations League final thanks to a 2-1 win over host nation Germany, with Cristiano Ronaldo scoring the decisive goal, all eyes are on this semi-final clash between two heavyweights, Spain and France.

Spain have been the most consistent side on the international stage, and they come into this match on Thursday, eyeing a spot in the final too. Their goal: become the first European nation to retain the Nations League title. La Roja are the current title holders in this competition after triumphing in 2023 by beating Croatia on penalties. 

The question looms: Can they beat France and go on to win in the final and secure back-to-back Nations League titles? Let's find out below!

Spain's form and route to the semifinal

Spain performed well in the Nations League group stages; in fact, they concluded the group stages with an unblemished record, recording five wins and a solitary draw in six games. This enabled them to top Group A4 and were eight points better than the second-placed Denmark.

Luis de la Fuente's men had a tricky match in the quarter-finals against the Netherlands. However, it wasn't something they couldn't handle as they edged their opponent 5-4 in a penalty shootout after a thrilling 5-5 tie on aggregate.

La Roja can take inspiration from their 18-match unbeaten run to see off the threat of France in the Nations League final. This is also the same side they defeated 2-1 in the Euro 2024 semifinal and ultimately won the competition. Considering they are blessed in depth, they can edge a narrow win this Thursday if they play their cards right, and even our Sportytrader betting experts agree with this perspective in the Spain vs France prediction.

Key players:

1. Nico Williams:

Williams has been an important player for the senior national team. The midfielder has been involved in four goal involvements and can be a constant threat here.

2. Lamine Yamal:

At 17 years old, Yamal has been nominated for the Ballon d'Or and also secured a domestic treble with Barcelona. His pace and quick calculation on the field will be required to trouble a depleted France squad.

France is out for revenge

This is not the first time France has faced Spain. The last time they squared off against Luis de la Fuente's men, it was heartbreak for Les Bleus as they were dumped out of the Euro 2024, as mentioned above.

Les Bleus did not get to conclude the Nations League with an unblemished record, but they did top Group A2 thanks to a better goal differential as they were level on points with Italy. In their six games, they won four times, drew once, and lost once. 

Didier Deschamps' men were almost eliminated from the competition when they lost 2-0 against Croatia in the first leg of the quarterfinal. 

However, home advantage played an important part in them avoiding such a disaster as they overturned the two-goal deficit and eventually won 5-4 in a penalty shootout. 

More on UEFA Nations League

France is missing key players

France is missing some noticeable names because of injury, and the area that has taken the most damage is their defense. 

In defense, Saliba, Kounde, and Upamecano won't be available for this one. Midfielders Aurelien Tchouameni and Eduardo Camavinga are also unavailable. 

However, there are a few names in the France squad that need to be watched as they could turn out to be game changers.

1. Ousmane Dembele:

Recently crowned UEFA Champions League champions with Paris Saint-Germain and a Ballon d'Or contender, Dembele could provide some explosive depth on the wing.

2. Kylian Mbappe:

Mbappe had a terrific season with Real Madrid despite failing to add silverware to his name. He finished as the league's top goalscorer and also scored the winning goal in France's 2-1 victory over Spain in the Nations League final in 2021.

Head-To-Head History and Statistical Comparison

Spain and France have faced each other 37 times. Spain currently leads the head-to-head meeting with 17 wins over France's 13. Seven of those games ended in a draw.

La Roja's performance in the Nations League is also better than Les Bleus'. Below is a table of their statistical comparison in the 2024-25 Nations League campaign:

Read on for our Spain vs France prediction