Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City Prediction & Betting Tips - A-League
Australia - A-League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in A-League Predictions
Matchday 15 in the A-League kicks off at Sky Stadium, with Wellington Phoenix playing host to Melbourne City on Friday. The Nix are ninth in the league standings, while the City Boys are eighth. Let’s get into the match prediction.
After an impressive start to the New Year in which they took seven points from three games, Wellington Phoenix suffered their first loss of 2026 last week, going down 4-1 to the Jets.
That was the fifth time in the last nine games that the Nix conceded two or more goals, and they have now shipped 26 for the season, which is the most of any team in the division to date.
The hosts have taken 10 points from seven home league games this season and have only won one of their last five against this opponent at this venue since 2021.
Meanwhile, after winning their second Champions title last season, Melbourne City have had a mixed campaign to this point, splitting their 15 games, five wins, five draws and five losses.
City suffered a crushing 6-2 loss to Macarthur last week, their biggest margin of defeat in the last two seasons. They’ve only scored 16 goals this term, which is the third-fewest in the top flight.
The visitors have earned nine points from a possible 21 on their travels this season (W2 D3 L2), but they have kept clean sheets in three of their last five away league games.
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Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne City Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.3 | 3.5 | 2.06 |
|
|
3.38 | 3.7 | 2.05 |
|
|
3.56 | 3.7 | 1.99 |
|
|
3.4 | 3.6 | 2.01 |
|
|
3.35 | 3.5 | 2.04 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne City?
Our prediction for the Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City match is: BTTS (NO).
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 30/01/2026 between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne City in A-League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 29.86% for a win of Wellington Phoenix against Melbourne City with odds of 3.6 at LSbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City is 20.23% with odds of 3.7 at Melbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 49.91% chance ⭐ for a win of Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix with odds of 2.07 at Tonybet.
Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne City Prediction and Best Odds:
| Wellington Phoenix Melbourne City Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Melbourne City wins | 49.91% | 2.07 at Tonybet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.5% | 1.92 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score | 57.29% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Melbourne City/Melbourne City | 17.67% | 3.25 at Bet365 |
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City Form
Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne City's standings in the A-League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6
|
38 | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
|
8
|
33 | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -12 |
Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne City Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Jan 2026 - A-League
18 Jan 2026 - A-League
10 Jan 2026 - A-League
3 Jan 2026 - A-League
29 Dec 2025 - A-League
20 Dec 2025 - A-League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jan 2026 - A-League
20 Dec 2025 - A-League
13 Dec 2025 - A-League
28 Nov 2025 - A-League
21 Nov 2025 - A-League
8 Nov 2025 - A-League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Jan 2026 - A-League
18 Jan 2026 - A-League
3 Jan 2026 - A-League
29 Dec 2025 - A-League
5 Dec 2025 - A-League
2 Nov 2025 - A-League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - A-League
16 Jan 2026 - A-League
11 Jan 2026 - A-League
6 Jan 2026 - A-League
3 Jan 2026 - A-League
28 Dec 2025 - A-League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Jan 2026 - A-League
11 Jan 2026 - A-League
6 Jan 2026 - A-League
3 Jan 2026 - A-League
28 Dec 2025 - A-League
23 Dec 2025 - A-League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - A-League
10 Dec 2025 - AFC Champions League
6 Dec 2025 - A-League
29 Nov 2025 - A-League
21 Nov 2025 - A-League
8 Nov 2025 - A-League
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
28 Feb 2025 - A-League
3 Jan 2025 - A-League
9 Mar 2024 - A-League
10 Apr 2023 - A-League
Wellington Phoenix against Melbourne City Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
E. McCarron
DefenderC. Piper
L. Kelly-Heald
M. Sheridan
S. Kartum
L. Brooke-Smith
ForwardN. Mileusnic
J. Nieuwenhuizen
DefenderP. Antoniou
L. Bonetig
L. Wong
M. Younis
A. Kuen
T. Kanamori
Most goals and assists
Wellington Phoenix
Melbourne City
E. Ifeanyi
(10 Goals)
M. Caputo
(8 Goals)
K. Nagasawa
(4 Assists)
, 
C. Piper
(4 Assists)
,
T. Payne
(4 Assists)
A. Kuen
(4 Assists)
Wellington Phoenix - Melbourne City Key Points
- Seven of Wellington Phoenix’s last nine games have ended with both teams scoring.
- Wellington Phoenix have conceded the most goals in the league this season (26).
- Wellington Phoenix have scored two or more goals in three of their last four home games.
- Melbourne City have not kept a clean sheet in their last three league games.
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Our Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City Prediction
Melbourne City are known for their solid defence, but they’ve been significantly less impressive this term, having already conceded 18, which is just seven fewer than they allowed across the entire of last season.
As for Wellington Phoenix, they have the worst defence in the division this season, but they are a better attack than they were in the last campaign, having already netted 22 goals, which is one more than league leaders Auckland. Given these sides’ recent performances, we do not feel either will keep a clean sheet in this one. Our Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City prediction is BTTS (NO).
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Wellington Phoenix Melbourne City
| Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington Phoenix wins | 4.5 | 3.6 | -20.0% |
| Draw | 3.7 | 3.7 | 0% |
| Melbourne City wins | 1.8 | 2.07 | +15.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Melbourne City is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 15.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 55.6% and is now 48.3% (-7.2%)
Get up to €100 to bet on the Wellington Phoenix vs. Melbourne City game
You can get yourself up to €150 in matched bets for the battle between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne City when you join Betway. To get the free bet, your first accumulator bet needs to be a losing one. If your first bet wins, then you won't get the free bet, but you'll have your winnings for further fun on A-League!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
