27 Jul 2025, 10:10
Tour de France
Tour de France - Stage 21
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Tour de France - Stage 21 Predictions & Betting tips - Tour de France
by Matthew Newman |
It is a much tougher final stage of the Tour de France than most from years past. There is still a loop around Paris, but it now includes three climbs of the famous Montmartre, where the cobbles will be more like a Spring Classics test. Let's figure out how that will affect our prediction.
We tipped Wout van Aert for Stage 20, but he finished safely in the peloton after just one early attempt to try and get into a break very early on the stage. He still needs plenty of respect here as these short, sharp climbs are ideal.
Van Aert went well for a long way in the Olympic road race last year, which included the Montmatre climb. The silver medal that day went to Valentin Madouas, who has been challenging for a top 20 place overall. He is fascinating at an enormous price.
Kaden Groves produced an impressive ride to claim Stage 20 and mark himself down as the top climbing sprinter in the field. It could be another day for him with the traditional sprinters like Jonathan Milan and Tim Merlier, perhaps finding this a little tough.
One more to consider is the winner of the stage in Paris in 2023, which was Jordi Meeus. He was second on the stage into Valence on Wednesday behind Jonathan Milan. 9th in Gent-Wevelgem and 11th in Kuuren-Brussel-Kuurne, he is well capable on this sort of course.
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Tour de France - Stage 21 - Tour de France prediction key points
- The final stage into Paris is relatively short, this year measuring 132.3km.
- The big difference is that the finale for 2025 will see five Cat 4 climbs crested.
- As a French team, the likes of Groupama-FDJ will be desperate to get something out of this tour, so expect them to be active.
- Valentin Madouas for that team has already had success on the Montmartre climb, which should give him plenty of confidence.
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Our Tour de France - Stage 21 - Tour de France prediction
Although the finish is still on the Champs Élysées, the closing kilometres to the winning line of the 2025 Tour de France are very different to the traditional sprint finish, with three trips up the cobbled climb of Montmartre.
That could make for a very interesting finale, and perhaps a shock winner could land the final stage. Our Tour de France Stage 21 prediction is Valentin Madouas each way, who won the silver medal at the Paris Olympics last year on a course that featured the Montmartre climb.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
