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6 Jul 2025, 05:15 

Tour de France

Cycling

Tour de France - Stage 2

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Prediction :

 

Mathieu van der Poel to win

 
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Tour de France - Stage 2 Predictions & Betting tips - Tour de France

 by Matthew Newman |

Stage 2 of the 2025 Tour de France is the longest at 209.1km, running to Boulogne. This looks like a puncheurs stage where early gaps in the peloton will shape up the overall standings for the first time. Let's take a look at the main contenders to make our prediction.

When it comes to the monuments and spring classics, there have been few better than Mathieu van der Poel. He won Stage 2 in Brittany in 2021, a similarly punchy stage, though with a tougher finish. This will be the stage that he will have ringed in his calendar as his best shot at a win.

The biggest rival of van der Poel has been Wout van Aert. They were fierce opponents in cyclo-cross and have continued that on the road. Van Aert has had a month off since a gruelling Giro where he finished third in the green jersey standings.

The two favourites for the Tour de France are Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard. While this is not a stage where they are liable to be attacking, it is also one where they will not want to give their rivals any rope.

Another man to mention is Remco Evenepoel. He is a more likely winner of the two individual time trials to come later in the Tour but the reigning Olympic Road Race champion has the power to put his rivals to the sword at any moment.

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Tour de France - Stage 2 - Tour de France prediction key points

  1. At 209.1km, this is the longest stage of the 2025 Tour de France.
  2. Mathieu van der Poel has eight monument wins, the 7th most all time. Those long and punchy one-day races resemble this stage.
  3. The three times that van der Poel and van Aert have met this season have seen van der Poel on top each time.
  4. A stage on the coastal roads has seen success previously for van der Poel in the Tour de France.
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Our Tour de France - Stage 2 - Tour de France prediction

Stage 2 is the first stage where gaps are going to appear in the overall standings. That could lead to it being a more competitive stage than might otherwise be expected, as the big players in the general classification will not want to drop any seconds to their main rivals. 

It will take a powerful rider who grinds it out to win the stage which shortens the list to the main protagonists in the spring classics and monument-style races. Given his dominance in the spring, our Tour de France Stage 2 prediction is Mathieu van der Poel to win.

Prediction :

 

Mathieu van der Poel to win

 
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