St. Pauli vs Freiburg Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga
Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
Relegation-threatened St Pauli will look to pick up crucial home points against European chasers Freiburg in this Bundesliga matchday 27 fixture on Sunday. This match between the 16th-placed 'Neighborhood Kickers' and the eighth-placed 'Breisgau Brazilians' comes with our prediction of a home win.
Ahead of this round, St Pauli's 24 points (W6, D6, L14) put them just one point behind the safety zone. Freiburg's 34 points (W9, D7, L10) see them start this round four points behind seventh and 11 points outside the European qualification places.
A 2-0 away defeat at fellow relegation strugglers Monchengladbach last Friday was a minor setback for St Pauli. That halted their three-game unbeaten run in the Bundesliga (W2, D1) and a chance to move into safe places.
They are still a strong team to play at home, as St Pauli are unbeaten in their last six Bundesliga home fixtures (W3, D3).
Freiburg won 5-1 at home against Genk on Thursday to progress to the quarter-finals of the UEFA Europa League. That helps address their poor recent run in the league, where they lost three of the last five games (W1, D1).
Their problems have magnified on the road, where Freiburg have lost four of their last five Bundesliga away games (D1), including three in a row, hampering their hopes of European qualification.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
St. Pauli v Freiburg Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.75 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
|
|
2.75 | 2.98 | 2.83 |
|
|
2.7 | 2.98 | 2.88 |
|
|
2.7 | 3.1 | 2.8 |
|
|
2.64 | 3 | 2.84 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between St. Pauli and Freiburg?
Our prediction for the St. Pauli vs Freiburg match is: St. Pauli wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 22/03/2026 between St. Pauli and Freiburg in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 48.71% for a win of St. Pauli against Freiburg with odds of 2.8 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between St. Pauli vs Freiburg is 33.03% with odds of 3.1 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 18.26% chance ⭐ for a win of Freiburg vs St. Pauli with odds of 2.99 at 888Starz.
St. Pauli - Freiburg Prediction and Best Odds:
| St. Pauli Freiburg Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| St. Pauli wins | 48.71% | 2.8 at Tonybet |
| Under 2.5 | 63.93% | 2.13 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score: No | 66.67% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: St. Pauli | 32.14% | 6.25 at LSbet |
St. Pauli vs Freiburg Form
St. Pauli and Freiburg's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
7
|
47 | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | -6 |
|
18
|
26 | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -31 |
St. Pauli and Freiburg Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
8 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
22 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
22 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
27 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
23 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
4 Jan 2026 - Clubs Friendlies
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
28 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
3 Feb 2026 - DFB Pokal
31 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
17 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Mar 2026 - Europa League
15 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
12 Mar 2026 - Europa League
7 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
1 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
22 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
19 Mar 2026 - Europa League
15 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
22 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
25 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Mar 2026 - Europa League
1 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
14 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
10 Feb 2026 - DFB Pokal
1 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
29 Jan 2026 - Europa League
St. Pauli vs Freiburg Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
0 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
9 Nov 2025 - Bundesliga
15 Feb 2025 - Bundesliga
28 Sept 2024 - Bundesliga
St. Pauli against Freiburg Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
B. Voll
DefenderD. Nemeth
A. Dzwigala
MidfielderC. Metcalfe
L. Oppie
M. Kaars
T. Hara
A. Hountondji
A. Ceesay
F. Muller
DefenderP. Lienhart
C. Gunter
L. Kubler
MidfielderN. Hofler
P. Osterhage
D. Scherhant
C. Irie
L. Holer
Missing players
S. Spari
DefenderM. Saliakas
MidfielderR. Jones
M. Schmitz
N. Schmidt
M. Rosenfelder
MidfielderD. Kyereh
Most goals and assists
St. Pauli
Freiburg
D. Sinani
(5 Goals)
I. Matanovic
(11 Goals)
J. Fujita
(3 Assists)
V. Grifo
(4 Assists)
, 
J. Manzambi
(4 Assists)
, 
M. Ginter
(4 Assists)
St. Pauli - Freiburg Key Points
- St Pauli won two of their last four Bundesliga matches, drawing and losing one each.
- St Pauli are unbeaten in their last six home league games, winning and drawing three each.
- Freiburg lost three of their last five competitive games, winning just once.
- Freiburg were beaten in four of their last five league trips, including three in a row.
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Our St. Pauli vs Freiburg Prediction
This is a massive game for St Pauli as they find themselves in the relegation zone but with a chance to move up the table. With only four points separating teams from 12th to 16th, every win from hereon will be gold. St Pauli have been a tough team to breach at home, and that could work to their advantage here. To go with that, Freiburg have been poor travelers recently, winning just one point in their last five Bundesliga trips.
St Pauli's strong home form is why our St. Pauli vs Freiburg prediction is St. Pauli wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis St. Pauli Freiburg
| St. Pauli vs Freiburg | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pauli wins | 2.6 | 2.8 | +7.7% |
| Draw | 3.1 | 3.1 | 0% |
| Freiburg wins | 2.75 | 2.99 | +8.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- St. Pauli is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 7.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 38.5% and is now 35.7% (-2.7%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
