Roma vs Lazio Prediction & Betting Tips - Serie A
Italy - Serie A
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by Kennedy Kechula | in Serie A Predictions
AS Roma are the designated hosts in the Derby della Capitale meeting with SS Lazio this Sunday in the 37th round of the Italian Serie A. The two sides are 16 points apart, Roma being fifth and Lazio ninth in the standings. A run of three wins in the last four meetings between these sides has Roma as the favorite, the other match ending in shared spoils. This draws our prediction against Lazio, who have lost four of five meetings as visitors.
The two sides have their differing targets for this clash, and that could be the defining factor here. Roma, tied on 67 points with fourth-placed AC Milan, are targeting a rise into the Champions League slots.
On the other hand, Lazio are effectively only playing for the bragging rights. The visitors sit ninth on 51 points and can only finish eighth this season. A second straight season out of Europe beckons after falling to Inter Milan in the Coppa Italia final.
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Roma v Lazio Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.52 | 4.4 | 6.4 |
|
|
1.52 | 4.14 | 6.55 |
|
|
1.46 | 4.24 | 7.5 |
|
|
1.5 | 4.2 | 6.5 |
|
|
1.49 | 4.2 | 6.6 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Roma and Lazio?
Our prediction for the Roma vs Lazio match is: AS Roma wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 17/05/2026 between Roma and Lazio in Serie A :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 50.37% for a win of Roma against Lazio with odds of 1.54 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Roma vs Lazio is 23.3% with odds of 4.4 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 26.34% chance ⭐ for a win of Lazio vs Roma with odds of 7.8 at 888Starz.
Roma - Lazio Prediction and Best Odds:
| Roma Lazio Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Roma wins | 50.37% | 1.54 at Tonybet |
| Under 2.5 | 58.1% | 1.99 at Betwinner |
| Both Team To Score: No | 60% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Roma/Roma | 26.89% | 2.25 at Bet365 |
Roma vs Lazio Form
Roma and Lazio's standings in the Serie A
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
73 | 38 | 23 | 4 | 11 | +28 |
|
9
|
54 | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | +1 |
Roma and Lazio Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 May 2026 - Serie A
4 May 2026 - Serie A
25 Apr 2026 - Serie A
18 Apr 2026 - Serie A
10 Apr 2026 - Serie A
5 Apr 2026 - Serie A
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 May 2026 - Serie A
18 Apr 2026 - Serie A
10 Apr 2026 - Serie A
22 Mar 2026 - Serie A
19 Mar 2026 - Europa League
1 Mar 2026 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 May 2026 - Serie A
25 Apr 2026 - Serie A
5 Apr 2026 - Serie A
15 Mar 2026 - Serie A
12 Mar 2026 - Europa League
8 Mar 2026 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 May 2026 - Coppa Italia
9 May 2026 - Serie A
4 May 2026 - Serie A
27 Apr 2026 - Serie A
22 Apr 2026 - Coppa Italia
18 Apr 2026 - Serie A
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 May 2026 - Coppa Italia
9 May 2026 - Serie A
27 Apr 2026 - Serie A
4 Apr 2026 - Serie A
15 Mar 2026 - Serie A
9 Mar 2026 - Serie A
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 May 2026 - Serie A
22 Apr 2026 - Coppa Italia
18 Apr 2026 - Serie A
13 Apr 2026 - Serie A
22 Mar 2026 - Serie A
1 Mar 2026 - Serie A
Roma vs Lazio Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
33 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
21 Sept 2025 - Serie A
13 Apr 2025 - Serie A
5 Jan 2025 - Serie A
6 Apr 2024 - Serie A
10 Jan 2024 - Coppa Italia
12 Nov 2023 - Serie A
Roma - Lazio: Form Analysis
Roma had a dramatic outing last time out as they kept alive their chase for a UCL slot. They didn’t just beat Parma 3-2, the Giallorossi scored in the 94th and 101st minutes to secure the three points. That was their third straight win, and they have high hopes of finishing in the top four for the first time since 2017/18.
At the very least, they should be confident of keeping fourth-placed AC Milan within touching distance. Gian Piero Gasperini’s men carry into this game a run of 11 home league games without a loss, having won eight. In those 11 matches they managed seven clean sheets.
Roma are gunning for a first league double against Lazio in 10 years.
Lazio will not come into this game with much to play for, nor are they on a similar run as their hosts. It has been a crushing week for Maurizio Sarri and his men. In their latest league match they suffered a 3-0 loss to champions Inter Milan, locking them out of a top seven finish.
They were then handed an immediate chance to avenge the defeat, facing Inter in the Coppa Italia final, but they faltered there too, falling 2-0 to a dominant Inter. Lazio haven’t finished outside the top eight in Serie A since 2013/14, but the threat is so real this time. They’ve only collected one point from their last four meetings with Roma.
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Roma against Lazio Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
G. De Marzi
P. Gollini
DefenderD. Rensch
D. Ghilardi
J. Ziolkowski
Angelino
K. Tsimikas
ForwardM. Soule
R. Vaz
A. Dovbyk
S. El Shaarawy
G. Giacomone
N. Pannozzo
DefenderL. Pellegrini
S. Gigot
E. Hysaj
MidfielderF. Dele-Bashiru
R. Belahyane
A. Przyborek
D. Cataldi
M. Lazzari
G. Isaksen
D. Maldini
P. Ratkov
Pedro
Missing players
E. Motta
DefenderPatric
ForwardM. Zaccagni
Roma & Lazio Squad Analysis
In Lorenzo Pellegrini’s last four goal involvements, AS Roma failed to win. The latest of them was in the 5-2 defeat against Inter Milan. Based on this stat, perhaps Roma will be okay with his absence here as he continues recovering from a thigh injury. The Italian scored the winner in the reverse fixture, though.
In a week that Paulo Dybala learned that he will not be with Argentina at the World Cup, the forward will want to show the world champions what they’ll miss. Dybala has scored 11 times against Lazio and will have a good feeling about this meeting. He will, however, be looking to score in this fixture for the first time since 2018.
Donyell Malen, Roma’s January acquisition, has scored 13 league goals.
At Lazio, for the second time this season, Alessio Romagnoli will be serving a Serie A suspension. He got sent off in the loss to Inter last time out in the league, though he was cleared for the Coppa Italia final. In attack, the designated visitors will, to an extent, rely on Danish forward Gustav Isaksen.
They rarely lose on his goal-scoring or goal-involvement outing. In the last 28 outings when he scored or assisted for club and country, he hasn’t ended on the losing side. He will also slot in well with Lazio’s need for an early goal, as in six of his last nine goal-scoring outings, he netted the opener.
Most goals and assists
Roma
Lazio
D. Malen
(14 Goals)
G. Isaksen
(5 Goals)
, 
Pedro
(5 Goals)
P. Dybala
(7 Assists)
T. Castellanos
(3 Assists)
, 
T. Basic
(3 Assists)
Roma - Lazio Key Points
- Roma are unbeaten in their last five matches, winning four.
- In 11 league matches at home, Roma are unbeaten, winning eight.
- Roma are unbeaten in their last four meetings with Lazio, winning three.
- Inside 90 minutes, Lazio have only managed two wins in their last eight games.
- When designated as the away team, Lazio lost six of the last nine games against Roma.
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Our Roma vs Lazio Prediction
Roma’s push for a top four finish has been gaining real momentum lately, and a game against their arch-rivals comes at a very good time. In the Derby della Capitale, they have progressed well across the last four matches.
On the other hand, Lazio will want to end this run, but they are currently on a poor streak, heading here off the back of a loss in the Coppa final. There’s really little to indicate they will prevail. Playing as the designated visitors hasn’t favored them in recent years, either. Our prediction for Roma v Lazio is that AS Roma wins.
Roma vs Lazio Alternative Predictions
Under 2.5 goals
Each of these teams’ last eight meetings have had under 2.5 goals. This has lately been a low-scoring affair, and there are suggestions we could have the same on Sunday. Roma have been doing well defensively in most of their recent matches. Our second prediction for Derby della Capitale is for under 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Roma Lazio
| Roma vs Lazio | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roma wins | 1.65 | 1.54 | -6.7% |
| Draw | 3.75 | 4.4 | +17.3% |
| Lazio wins | 5 | 7.8 | +56.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Roma is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 6.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 60.6% and is now 64.9% (4.3%)
Roma vs Lazio - FAQs
The Roma v Lazio match will be played on Sunday, 17th May.
The Roma v Lazio match will be played at the Stadio Olimpico.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
