Europe - Champions League
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by Joseph King | in Champions League Predictions
The UEFA Champions League picks back up in matchday three of the league phase with 27th-place PSV hosting 19th-placed Napoli. It’s a battle between the Dutch champions Rood-witten and the Italian champions Gli Azzurri. Check out our match prediction!
PSV need a good result here if they are to keep their dreams of making the knockout stage alive. After the first two matches of the 2025-26 Champions League, the hosts are sitting on just a solitary point. Last season, 11 points were needed to squeeze into the top 24 positions and we’re likely to see something similar this year. There are no easy fixtures on PSV’s UCL schedule, so making the absolute most of their home matches will be key to their chances.
Napoli are back in the Champions League after a one-year hiatus and will have aspirations of making it to the later rounds. The Italians made it to the quarter-finals for the first time in club history in 2023-24 and you could argue that they should have a similar expectation this time around. Napoli’s three points sees them trailing the top eight by just one point with a quarter of the league phase in the books.
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The Best Betting Odds for PSV Eindhoven v Napoli Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.25 | 3.3 | 2.25 |
|
|
3 | 3.5 | 2.15 |
|
|
3 | 3.5 | 2.2 |
|
|
3 | 3.6 | 2.25 |
|
|
3.05 | 3.7 | 2.2 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between PSV Eindhoven and Napoli?
Our prediction for the PSV Eindhoven vs Napoli match is: BTTS + over 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 21/10/2025 between PSV Eindhoven and Napoli in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 38.29% for a win of PSV Eindhoven against Napoli with odds of 3.25 at Bet365.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between PSV Eindhoven vs Napoli is 18.79% with odds of 3.72 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 42.92% chance ⭐ for a win of Napoli vs PSV Eindhoven with odds of 2.31 at 888Starz.
PSV Eindhoven vs Napoli Form
PSV Eindhoven and Napoli's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
19
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
|
27
|
1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 |
PSV Eindhoven and Napoli Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Oct 2025 - Eredivisie
4 Oct 2025 - Eredivisie
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
27 Sep 2025 - Eredivisie
21 Sep 2025 - Eredivisie
16 Sep 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Oct 2025 - Eredivisie
21 Sep 2025 - Eredivisie
16 Sep 2025 - Champions League
30 Aug 2025 - Eredivisie
23 Aug 2025 - Eredivisie
9 Aug 2025 - Eredivisie
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Oct 2025 - Eredivisie
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
27 Sep 2025 - Eredivisie
13 Sep 2025 - Eredivisie
17 Aug 2025 - Eredivisie
5 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Oct 2025 - Serie A
5 Oct 2025 - Serie A
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
28 Sep 2025 - Serie A
22 Sep 2025 - Serie A
18 Sep 2025 - Champions League
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Oct 2025 - Serie A
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
22 Sep 2025 - Serie A
30 Aug 2025 - Serie A
14 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
10 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Oct 2025 - Serie A
28 Sep 2025 - Serie A
18 Sep 2025 - Champions League
13 Sep 2025 - Serie A
23 Aug 2025 - Serie A
18 May 2025 - Serie A
PSV Eindhoven - Napoli: Form Analysis
PSV come into this match off the back of a 2-1 home victory over GA Eagles at the weekend for their second win in a row. The result extended their unbeaten run to five games across all competitions (W3, D2).
It’s been a strong start domestically for PSV, who have racked up a 7-1-1 record in the Eredivisie. In Europe, however, they’ve struggled.
PSV kicked off their UCL campaign with a disappointing 3-1 home defeat to Union Saint-Gilloise. They responded by grabbing a point away against Leverkusen in a 1-1 draw in matchday two.
A loss here would put PSV in real danger of missing out on the top 24.
Napoli have experienced a decent start to the 2025-26 Serie A season as they seek their third Scudetto in the last four years. They’ve won five of the first seven league matches, although they split their first two in the Champions League.
After having a player sent off in the first half, Napoli ultimately slumped to 2-0 away defeat to Manchester City in their UCL opener. They showed good character to bounce back in the next matchday, beating Sporting 2-1 at home thanks to a Hojlund goal 11 minutes from full time.
They’ll be coming into this match off the back of a loss after falling 1-0 away to Torino on Saturday.
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PSV Eindhoven vs Napoli last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 1 - 4 - 1
Missing players
W. Kuhn
K. Sildillia
ForwardA. Plea
R. van Bommel
M. Boadu
R. Pepi
N. Contini
DefenderA. Rrahmani
MidfielderS. Lobotka
ForwardR. Lukaku
PSV Eindhoven & Napoli Squad Analysis
After enjoying a rip-roaring start since joining Napoli on loan from Manchester United, striker Rasmus Hojlund suffered a training injury which kept him out of the weekend’s game.
With Lukaku also nursing an injury, the responsibility to lead the line will fall on Lorenzo Lucca. The towering Italian had a tough outing against Torino, failing to convert with his three shots although he did win 3/5 aerial duels. Expect more than a few long balls and crosses to the 2.01 metre striker.
Napoli boss Antonio Conte is dealing with an injury crisis with no fewer than five first-team players unavailable.
A number of key players are expected to miss out on the trip to Eindhoven. Along with the aforementioned Hojlund and Lukaku, the visitors will be unable to call upon midfield duo Scott McTominay and Stanislav Lobotka, along with defender Amir Rrahmani.
Napoli will have to pay special attention to PSV’s Ismael Saibari. The Moroccan is arguably the biggest goal threat in the team at the moment, operating in the number 10 position. Saibari has scored or assisted in five of PSV’s last seven games, including scoring the equalizer against Leverkusen in the 1-1 draw.
Three PSV players are flagged as either out or doubtful: defender Kilian Sildillia, forward Alassane Plea and winger Ruben van Bommell.
Most goals and assists
PSV Eindhoven
Napoli
I. Saibari
(4 Goals)
, 
R. van Bommel
(4 Goals)
,
J. Veerman
(4 Goals)
,
G. Til
(4 Goals)
R. Hojlund
(4 Goals)
I. Perisic
(5 Assists)
K. De Bruyne
(2 Assists)
PSV Eindhoven and Napoli Stats in Champions League
PSV Eindhoven - Napoli Key Points
- Despite being blanked at the weekend, Napoli still managed to create 2.87 xG and 3 clear cut chances.
- BTTS + over 2.5 has come through in four of Napoli’s last five matches.
- Five of PSV’s last seven games overall have seen BTTS + over 2.5.
- PSV’s 12 matches this season have seen an average of 4.00 total goals scored.
- Napoli have conceded in their last seven straight outings across all competitions.
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Our PSV Eindhoven vs Napoli Prediction
An entertaining, back-and-forth fixture certainly looks to be on the cards when these two face off in Eindhoven on Tuesday. Napoli missing Lukaku and Hojlund certainly isn’t ideal, but they have enough creative forces present that they should be able to create chances against a PSV team that is far from watertight at the back.
Playing at home, we should see PSV able to get on the scoresheet and they may very well fancy their chances of taking all three points against a beat up Napoli side. Our PSV vs Napoli prediction: BTTS + over 2.5.PSV Eindhoven vs Napoli - Other Interesting Predictions
Ismael Saibari anytime goalscorer
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