Europe - Champions League
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by Steve Ashfield | in Champions League Predictions
PSG are in the driving seat in this Champions League semi-final. They won the away first leg against Arsenal 1-0 and look on course to meet either Barcelona or Inter in the final. Can the Gunners stage a comeback? Read our match prediction.
Both clubs are attempting to reach what will be only their second Champions League final. PSG have long dreamed of becoming European champions and it'd be ironic if they finally achieve that after the departure of Mbappe. Their only previous final was in 2020 but they already have one foot in the final that will be played in Munich. This is their sixth match against an English club in this season's Champions League.
Arsenal's one previous Champions League final appearance was 19 years ago. They have it all to do if they are to get themselves back into this semi-final. A lead was really needed to take to Paris. The weekend also saw them taste defeat at the hands of Bournemouth. A place in next season's Champions League looks assured though, despite that weekend defeat. The one disaster they must avoid is to go a goal down in this game.
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The Best Betting Odds for PSG v Arsenal Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.1 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
|
|
2.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 |
|
|
2.3 | 2.6 | 3.3 |
|
|
2.07 | 3.6 | 3.35 |
|
|
2.13 | 3.79 | 3.48 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between PSG and Arsenal?
Our prediction for the PSG vs Arsenal match is: PSG to win.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 07/05/2025 between PSG and Arsenal in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 35.91% for a win of PSG against Arsenal with odds of 2.3 at Ladbrokes.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between PSG vs Arsenal is 27.73% with odds of 3.79 at 1xbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 36.36% chance ⭐ for a win of Arsenal vs PSG with odds of 3.48 at 1xbet.
PSG vs Arsenal Form
PSG and Arsenal Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2025 - Ligue 1
29 Apr 2025 - Champions League
25 Apr 2025 - Ligue 1
22 Apr 2025 - Ligue 1
19 Apr 2025 - Ligue 1
15 Apr 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2025 - Ligue 1
19 Apr 2025 - Ligue 1
9 Apr 2025 - Champions League
5 Apr 2025 - Ligue 1
16 Mar 2025 - Ligue 1
5 Mar 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2025 - Ligue 1
29 Apr 2025 - Champions League
22 Apr 2025 - Ligue 1
15 Apr 2025 - Champions League
1 Apr 2025 - French Cup
29 Mar 2025 - Ligue 1
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2025 - Premier League
29 Apr 2025 - Champions League
23 Apr 2025 - Premier League
20 Apr 2025 - Premier League
16 Apr 2025 - Champions League
12 Apr 2025 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2025 - Premier League
29 Apr 2025 - Champions League
23 Apr 2025 - Premier League
12 Apr 2025 - Premier League
8 Apr 2025 - Champions League
1 Apr 2025 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Apr 2025 - Premier League
16 Apr 2025 - Champions League
5 Apr 2025 - Premier League
9 Mar 2025 - Premier League
4 Mar 2025 - Champions League
26 Feb 2025 - Premier League
PSG vs Arsenal Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
20 %
40 %
40 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
29 Apr 2025 - Champions League
1 Oct 2024 - Champions League
28 Jul 2018 - International Champions Cup
23 Nov 2016 - Champions League
13 Sep 2016 - Champions League
PSG - Arsenal: Form Analysis
Arsenal were beaten 2-1 at home by Bournemouth on Saturday. That took their winless run to three matches after previously drawing with Crystal Palace and losing to PSG. All three of those games were played at the Emirates.
What's worrying for Arsenal is they played a very strong line-up against Bournemouth rather than resting several players. Arteta's side had gone eight Champions League games without defeat before losing the first leg of this semi-final.
Arsenal need to continue their good away form.
On their travels in Europe this season, the Gunners failed to score in their first two Champions League games but have since won four in a row with 16 goals scored. That includes a 2-1 win at Real Madrid and they need to find that kind of form on Wednesday evening.
PSG also lost at the weekend, going down 2-1 at Strasbourg. They have already won Ligue 1 and made plenty of changes for that match. The big guns will be back for this semi-final second leg.
The Parisians have won four of their home Champions League games this season but did lose to Liverpool. That's one of three losses to English clubs this season, including a 2-0 loss at Arsenal in the league phase.
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PSG vs Arsenal last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Missing players
O. Dembélé
T. Tomiyasu
R. Calafiori
G. Magalhaes
MidfielderJorginho
ForwardG. Jesus
K. Havertz
PSG & Arsenal Squad Analysis
With the Ligue 1 title already won, PSG were able to make ten changes for their weekend away game at Strasbourg. They lost that game 2-1 but are still 19 points clear at the top. Their attempt to avoid any key injuries failed though. Lee Kang-in did play and had to come off at half-time.
While it was good to come away from the Emirates with a lead, it was only 1-0. There’s still all to play for and PSG have to take a cautious approach to this match. It’d be great to score again and double their lead but one goal by Arsenal and the game is back level and anyone could win the tie.
Dembele is a major doubt for PSG.
The biggest concern PSG have at present is the fitness of Ousmane Dembele. He scored the winning goal but had to be substituted in the second half. Dembele has scored 33 goals this season but was not in the squad for the Strasbourg game and could well miss this match.
Arsenal dare not go 2-0 down in the tie and will have to become more adventurous as the game progresses. They didn’t rest anywhere near as many players as PSG did at the weekend. They also have a major worry over the fitness of Martin Odegaard. Losing him in midfield would seriously damage their chances of success.
Jurrien Timber is also doubtful for this game. It’s possible if they do play then the pair might have to start on the bench.
Most goals and assists
PSG
Arsenal
O. Dembélé
(29 Goals)
K. Havertz
(15 Goals)
B. Barcola
(13 Assists)
B. Saka
(13 Assists)
PSG and Arsenal Stats in Champions League
PSG - Arsenal Key Points
- Arsenal have gone three games without a win.
- Arsenal lost at the weekend despite playing a strong line-up.
- PSG won the first leg 1-0.
- PSG have won seven of their last nine home games.
- Arsenal have failed to win either of their last two Champions League away games played in France.
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Our PSG vs Arsenal Prediction
PSG lead 1-0 from the first leg and will kick themselves if they fail to reach the Champions League final. The Ligue 1 champions could have scored more goals in the first leg but are still in a s strong position to finish the job off in Paris. They kept their best players wrapped up in cotton wool at the weekend and will be fielding a strong line-up for this second leg.
The Gunners seem to have hit a bad spell of form just at the wrong moment. They have gone three games without a win and even with a strong line-up, they were beaten 2-1 at home by Bournemouth on Saturday.
Our main PSG v Arsenal prediction is PSG to win.
PSG vs Arsenal - Other Interesting Predictions
Nuno Mendes to score
Nuno Mendes has scored twice for PSG in their last three Champions League games.
First half to see most goals scored.
Win free tickets to PSG vs. Arsenal at Bet365!
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PSG vs Arsenal match : Frequently asked questions
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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