Newcastle vs Sunderland Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Premier League Predictions
The rivalry reignites! Ten years in the making, the Tyne-Wear Derby returns to St. James Park, with North East rivals Newcastle and Sunderland set to lock horns in the Premier League this Sunday. The Magpies are ninth in the league standings, while the Black Cats are 13th after 30 games. Check out our match prediction below!
After a humbling defeat at Camp Nou in the Champions League in midweek, Eddie Howe’s side now face their fiercest foe on their home patch for the first time since 2016. The Toon Army have not seen their side win the North East Derby on home soil in their last five attempts and lost the reverse fixture at the Stadium of Light 1-0 back in December.
Regis Le Bris’s men reached 40 points at the start of March - their primary target for the season - and a victory on enemy territory this weekend will propel them above the Geordies in the EPL standings. The Black Cats have not lost a league game against their neighbours since 2011, but can they keep that record intact? It’s a match magnified by memory and meaning - let’s get into the key stats!
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Newcastle v Sunderland Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.59 | 4.3 | 5.8 |
|
|
1.55 | 4.2 | 5.85 |
|
|
1.58 | 4.16 | 5.55 |
|
|
1.55 | 4.2 | 5.75 |
|
|
1.64 | 3.8 | 5.4 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Newcastle and Sunderland?
Our prediction for the Newcastle vs Sunderland match is: Newcastle wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 22/03/2026 between Newcastle and Sunderland in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 48.1% for a win of Newcastle against Sunderland with odds of 1.74 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Newcastle vs Sunderland is 14.95% with odds of 4.3 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 36.95% chance ⭐ for a win of Sunderland vs Newcastle with odds of 6 at Shangrila.
Newcastle - Sunderland Prediction and Best Odds:
| Newcastle Sunderland Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle wins | 48.1% | 1.74 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% | 1.88 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 56.25% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Newcastle | 18.32% | 4.5 at Bet365 |
Newcastle vs Sunderland Form
Newcastle and Sunderland's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
7
|
54 | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | -6 |
|
12
|
49 | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | -2 |
Newcastle and Sunderland Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Mar 2026 - Champions League
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
24 Feb 2026 - Champions League
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Mar 2026 - Champions League
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
18 Feb 2026 - Champions League
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
10 Feb 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
8 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
3 Mar 2026 - Premier League
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
22 Feb 2026 - Premier League
15 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
22 Feb 2026 - Premier League
11 Feb 2026 - Premier League
2 Feb 2026 - Premier League
17 Jan 2026 - Premier League
1 Jan 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
3 Mar 2026 - Premier League
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
15 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
24 Jan 2026 - Premier League
Newcastle vs Sunderland Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
0 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
14 Dec 2025 - Premier League
6 Jan 2024 - FA Cup
Newcastle - Sunderland: Form Analysis
Before their crushing UCL exit in Catalonia, Newcastle United notched up back-to-back EPL wins against Chelsea (1-0) and Man United (2-1), which reignited their hopes of European qualification.
Those results marked the first time the Magpies had won consecutive league games since either side of the New Year, and the victory over the Blues was their first clean sheet since January 18.
However, the hosts have not been great at home this season, earning 26 points from 15 games (W8 D2 L5), while losing three of their last four. They are also winless in their last five at this venue against this opponent (D2 L3).
Sunderland are unbeaten in their last 10 league matches against Newcastle (W7 D3)!
Meanwhile, Sunderland suffered a 1-0 defeat to Brighton last weekend, which saw them slip behind the Seagulls to 13th in the league standings, but they are still only eight points off the top six.
The Black Cats have been struggling for consistency recently, winning just three of their last 10 matches in all competitions, a period during which they were eliminated from the FA Cup by Port Vale.
While the visitors have dominated this fixture in recent years, their away record this term is the fourth-worst in the top flight (W3 D5 L7). They have also scored the second-fewest goals on the road in the division (8).
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Newcastle against Sunderland Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 1 - 4 - 1
Substitutes
N. Pope
DefenderM. Thiaw
T. Livramento
A. Murphy
MidfielderJ. Willock
J. Murphy
W. Osula
S. Neave
Y. Wissa
S. Moore
DefenderJ. Jones
D. Cirkin
R. Mandava
N. Mukiele
MidfielderE. Le Fee
H. Jones
ForwardW. Isidor
E. Mayenda
Missing players
F. Schar
MidfielderB. Guimaraes
L. Miley
R. Roefs
DefenderD. Ballard
MidfielderR. Mundle
J. Bi
ForwardN. Angulo
Newcastle & Sunderland Squad Analysis
Sandro Tonali was forced off with an injury against Barcelona, which is a major concern for Newcastle, given Bruno Guimaraes’ absence. The Italian is a doubt, but Howe confirmed he will be assessed again ahead of kickoff.
Among the players to watch for the hosts are Anthony Gordon and Anthony Elanga. Gordon scored in both league wins coming into this one, while Elanga bagged a brace and was the Magpies' best player against Barca in midweek.
Nick Woltemade will be hoping to be given a chance to make amends for the own goal he scored in the reverse fixture. Lewis Miley, Fabian Schar and Emil Krafth are ruled out for the home team this week.
Gordon could score in three consecutive EPL games for the first time this weekend!
Sunderland received a massive boost last week, with Brian Brobbey returning from injury to start against the Seagulls. The Dutchman is the team’s top scorer in the Prem this term with five goals and will be eager to add to his tally here.
One player who could be key to the Black Cats’ chances in this match is attacking midfielder Habib Diarra. The Senegal international scored the winner at Elland Road at the start of the month and is averaging over one shot per 90 in the top flight this season.
The visitors have a lengthy injury list, with Robin Roefs, Bertrand Traore, Ryan Mundle, Nordi Mukiele, Jocelin Ta Bi, and Reinildo sidelined, while Enzo Le Fee is listed as a doubt.
Most goals and assists
Newcastle
Sunderland
B. Guimaraes
(9 Goals)
B. Brobbey
(7 Goals)
B. Guimaraes
(5 Assists)
E. Le Fee
(7 Assists)
Newcastle - Sunderland Key Points
- Newcastle have won three of their last five EPL matches.
- Newcastle are averaging 1.51 xG per 90 this season, while Sunderland are averaging 0.93.
- Newcastle are averaging 1.86 goals per home league game.
- Sunderland have only won three of their last 14 league matches.
- Sunderland have scored the second-fewest away goals in the Prem this season.
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Our Newcastle vs Sunderland Prediction
While Sunderland have dominated the Tyne-Wear Derby for over a decade, the Black Cats' form has dipped recently. They have only won three of their last 14 league games, with two of those wins coming against fellow newly promoted outfits Burnley and Leeds.
Overlooking their loss to Barcelona, Newcastle have been on an upward trajectory in the EPL, and wins against Man United and Chelsea have reignited their European qualification hopes. A fierce battle is expected in this match, but we feel the Magpies have more firepower to get their long-awaited league victory over their rivals on home soil. Our Newcastle vs Sunderland prediction is Newcastle wins.
Newcastle vs Sunderland Alternative Predictions
BTTS
Habib Diarra over 0.5 shots on target
Habib Diarra has recorded 16 shots in 13 appearances for Sunderland this season. Six of those shots have been on target (37.5), and he is also likely to be on penalty duty, having scored from the spot against Leeds.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Newcastle Sunderland
| Newcastle vs Sunderland | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle wins | 1.67 | 1.74 | +4.2% |
| Draw | 4.21 | 4.3 | +2.1% |
| Sunderland wins | 5.63 | 6 | +6.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Newcastle is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 4.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 59.9% and is now 57.5% (-2.4%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Newcastle vs. Sunderland game!
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Newcastle vs Sunderland - FAQs
The Premier League match between Newcastle and Sunderland will take place on March 22 at 12:00 GMT.
The Premier League match between Newcastle and Sunderland will be played at St. James’ Park in Newcastle.
The Premier League match between Newcastle and Sunderland will be broadcast on Sky Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our Premier League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
