Manchester United vs Brighton Prediction & Betting Tips - FA Cup
England - FA Cup
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by Devesh Jaganath | in FA Cup Predictions
The third round sees the big boys enter the FA Cup this weekend, and few fixtures feel fiercer than the one at Old Trafford, where Manchester United take on Brighton & Hove Albion on Sunday. The Red Devils last faced the Seagulls in this competition in the semi-finals in 2023 and won that match 7-6 on penalties. Check out our match prediction below!
It’s been a tough start to the year in the red half of Manchester, with their side currently without a permanent manager and winless since Boxing Day. United missed another opportunity to move into the top four at the weekend, and having infamously been eliminated from the EFL Cup by Grimsby Town, the FA Cup is likely their only chance of securing silverware this season.
However, the hosts face a formidable challenge, with Brighton arriving on the back of a superb showing just across the Mancunian Way at the Etihad in midweek. The south-coast side have only lost two of 16 third-round ties in this competition, but have never beaten this opponent in this competition. Let’s get into the key stats!
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The Best Betting Odds for Manchester United v Brighton Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.68 | 4.33 | 4 |
|
|
1.8 | 4 | 4 |
|
|
1.73 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
|
|
1.79 | 4.1 | 3.75 |
|
|
1.73 | 4 | 4 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Manchester United and Brighton?
Our prediction for the Manchester United vs Brighton match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 11/01/2026 between Manchester United and Brighton in FA Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 34.58% for a win of Manchester United against Brighton with odds of 1.82 at LSbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Manchester United vs Brighton is 41.16% with odds of 4.5 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 24.26% chance ⭐ for a win of Brighton vs Manchester United with odds of 4.24 at Melbet.
Manchester United - Brighton Prediction and Best Odds:
| Manchester United Brighton Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 41.16% | 4.5 at Tonybet |
| Under 2.5 | 54.69% | 2.65 at Bwin |
| Both Team To Score | 62.08% | 1.48 at Ladbrokes |
| Half-time : Manchester United / Full-time : Brighton | 18.55% | 14 at Betfair |
Manchester United vs Brighton Form
Manchester United and Brighton Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
26 Dec 2025 - Premier League
21 Dec 2025 - Premier League
15 Dec 2025 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
26 Dec 2025 - Premier League
15 Dec 2025 - Premier League
4 Dec 2025 - Premier League
24 Nov 2025 - Premier League
25 Oct 2025 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
21 Dec 2025 - Premier League
8 Dec 2025 - Premier League
30 Nov 2025 - Premier League
8 Nov 2025 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
3 Jan 2026 - Premier League
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
13 Dec 2025 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
7 Dec 2025 - Premier League
3 Dec 2025 - Premier League
22 Nov 2025 - Premier League
1 Nov 2025 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
13 Dec 2025 - Premier League
30 Nov 2025 - Premier League
9 Nov 2025 - Premier League
Manchester United vs Brighton Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
0 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
25 Oct 2025 - Premier League
19 Jan 2025 - Premier League
24 Aug 2024 - Premier League
19 May 2024 - Premier League
16 Sept 2023 - Premier League
4 May 2023 - Premier League
Manchester United - Brighton: Form Analysis
Darren Fletcher’s tenure as interim boss at Old Trafford began disappointingly, as Manchester United were held to a 2-2 draw by relegation candidates Burnley in the Premier League in midweek.
The Red Devils have now drawn their last three top-flight games for the first time since 2018, and have only managed to keep a single clean sheet across all competitions since the start of October.
The hosts are unbeaten in their last four home games, but three of those were also stalemates (W1 D3). However, they did beat this opponent 4-2 when they met at this venue in the league earlier this season.
Man United have only lost two of their last 40 FA Cup third-round matches!
Meanwhile, Brighton & Hove Albion battled back from a goal down to nick a point at the Etihad on Wednesday, and have now picked up 13 points from losing positions in the Prem this season.
The Seagulls are now unbeaten in their last three league games (W1 D2), but that victory is the only one they’ve managed in their last eight matches (D4 L3), dating back to the end of November.
The visitors are winless in their last four away games (D2 L2) and conceded two or more goals in three of those matches. However, while they lost here in October, they did win three in a row at the Theatre of Dreams prior to that.
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Players list
S. Lammens
DefenderH. Maguire
L. Yoro
D. Dalot
P. Dorgu
MidfielderS. Lacey
J. Zirkzee
Casemiro
B. Fernandes
ForwardM. Cunha
B. Sesko
J. Steele
DefenderO. Boscagli
F. Kadioglu
Y. Ayari
D. Coppola
MidfielderT. Watson
P. Gross
J. Van Hecke
J. Hinshelwood
ForwardC. Kostoulas
K. Mitoma
Substitutes
A. Bayindir
DefenderA. Heaven
H. Maguire
T. Malacia
MidfielderCasemiro
T. Fletcher
J. Fletcher
S. Lacey
J. Zirkzee
B. Verbruggen
DefenderJ. Van Hecke
L. Dunk
MidfielderH. Howell
Y. Ayari
K. Mitoma
C. Tasker
ForwardC. Kostoulas
T. Watson
Manchester United & Brighton Squad Analysis
The undoubted biggest positive from the match at Turf Moor for Man United was the performance of Benjamin Sesko, who bagged a brace and benefited massively from the team’s change in formation.
Patrick Dorgu was deployed in a more advanced role, as was returning skipper Bruno Fernandes, and by the end of the match, United had recorded 30 shots at goal and 10 on target.
Harry Maguire returned to the squad in the week, meaning the hosts are now missing just Matthijs de Ligt through injury. Bryan Mbeumo, Amad Diallo and Noussair Mazraoui are still at the AFCON.
Will Danny Welbeck get the nod to start against his former club this weekend?
Welbeck’s output has slowed down after scoring seven goals in as many games between September and November, but he has netted seven times against United, including at this venue in October.
Pascal Gross has come straight back into the Seagulls’ midfield since returning from Borussia Dortmund, and he will likely partner Yasin Ayari in the engine room with Carlos Baleba still away with Cameroon.
The visitors have five players sidelined through injury at present, including Mats Wieffer, Yankuba Minteh, Solly March, Adam Webster and long-term absentee Stefanos Tzimas.
Most goals and assists
Manchester United
Brighton
B. Mbeumo
(7 Goals)
D. Welbeck
(8 Goals)
, 
D. Gomez
(8 Goals)
B. Fernandes
(8 Assists)
Y. Minteh
(3 Assists)
,
T. Watson
(3 Assists)
, 
M. Wieffer
(3 Assists)
, 
G. Rutter
(3 Assists)
Manchester United - Brighton Key Points
- Eight of Man United’s last 10 games ended with both teams scoring.
- Man United have only kept two clean sheets in 10 home games this season.
- Brighton have only failed to score in two of their last 10 matches.
- Brighton conceded two or more goals in three of their last four away games.
- Both teams scored in four of the last five matches between these sides.
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Our Manchester United vs Brighton Prediction
While Manchester United looked much better from an attacking perspective after returning to a back four at the weekend, they were far from solid defensively, conceding twice to the team with the third-fewest goals in the league this season.
Despite suffering defeat here earlier this season, Brighton have enjoyed success in this fixture over the years, losing only twice in their last nine games against United since February 2022. Matches between these sides have produced goals in recent times, and we’re expecting that to be the case in this one as well. Our Manchester United vs Brighton prediction is BTTS.
Manchester United vs Brighton - Other Interesting Predictions
Over 2.5
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Manchester United Brighton
| Manchester United vs Brighton | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United wins | 1.91 | 1.68 | -12.0% |
| Draw | 3.75 | 4.33 | +15.5% |
| Brighton wins | 3.3 | 4 | +21.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- A draw is the most likely outcome
- The odds for this bet have increased by 15.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 26.7% and is now 23.1% (-3.6%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Manchester United vs. Brighton game!
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Try your luck on this year's FA Cup! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
Manchester United vs Brighton - FAQs
The FA Cup match between Manchester United and Brighton will take place on January 11 at 16:30 GMT.
The FA Cup match between Manchester United and Brighton will be played at Old Trafford in Manchester.
The FA Cup match between Manchester United and Brighton will be broadcast on TNT Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our FA Cup livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
