Europe - Champions League
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by Kennedy Kechula | in Champions League Predictions
Under the Champions League lights, Manchester City return, looking to light up the big stage and reclaim the title they won two years ago. The English giants start off the campaign at home to Italian champions Napoli. This will mark a fifth meeting between the two, but the first one since 2017. Let’s dive in for our preview of the match and a prediction.
Manchester City won their last two meetings with Napoli, and they will be gunning for the same. However, the hosts have blown hot and cold this season, and this will not be an easy match to call for the Cityzens.
Another key stat for this game is that in seven meetings, Pep Guardiola has won three and lost four against Antonio Conte’s teams. The Italian manager will be managing a fifth different club in the Champions League, a marker of his experience. He will hope this know-how transforms Napoli’s fortunes in matches played on English soil. Napoli have never won away in England in European competitions.
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The Best Betting Odds for Manchester City v Napoli Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.65 | 4 | 5 |
|
|
1.67 | 4 | 5.5 |
|
|
1.67 | 3.8 | 5 |
|
|
1.7 | 4 | 4.5 |
|
|
1.61 | 4.1 | 5.2 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Manchester City and Napoli?
Our prediction for the Manchester City vs Napoli match is: over 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 18/09/2025 between Manchester City and Napoli in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 45% for a win of Manchester City against Napoli with odds of 1.7 at Betway.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Manchester City vs Napoli is 14.61% with odds of 4.25 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 40.39% chance ⭐ for a win of Napoli vs Manchester City with odds of 5.5 at Betfred.
Manchester City vs Napoli Form
Manchester City and Napoli's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|
8
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Manchester City and Napoli Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Sep 2025 - Premier League
31 Aug 2025 - Premier League
23 Aug 2025 - Premier League
16 Aug 2025 - Premier League
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
30 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Sep 2025 - Premier League
23 Aug 2025 - Premier League
30 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
22 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
18 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
20 May 2025 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Aug 2025 - Premier League
16 Aug 2025 - Premier League
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
26 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
25 May 2025 - Premier League
17 May 2025 - FA Cup
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Sep 2025 - Serie A
30 Aug 2025 - Serie A
23 Aug 2025 - Serie A
14 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
10 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Aug 2025 - Serie A
14 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
10 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Sep 2025 - Serie A
23 Aug 2025 - Serie A
18 May 2025 - Serie A
3 May 2025 - Serie A
19 Apr 2025 - Serie A
7 Apr 2025 - Serie A
Manchester City vs Napoli Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
1 Nov 2017 - Champions League
17 Oct 2017 - Champions League
Manchester City - Napoli: Form Analysis
While Manchester City targets a second Champions League title, the fact remains they aren’t as good as when they won the first. This season, City have been on and off, with inconsistencies that started in 2024/25.
Pep Guardiola’s side beat Wolves 4-0 to start their campaign but slumped to defeats against Tottenham Hotspur and Brighton. They did recover in their most recent game, beating Manchester United 3-0.
By their standards, it has been a slow start to the season. Home fans will hope the start of the Champions League heralds the return to glory days. In the league phase last season, they finished 22nd before losing in the playoff round.
Napoli are marking a return to the Champions League after last season’s absence.
Napoli missed out on Champions League football last season and used the time to reshape and strategize. Their rebuild brought forth another league title, and they’ve followed it up with a solid start to 2025/26.
Three straight wins will embolden the Italians on this trip to Manchester. In their opening game, Napoli trounced Sassuolo 2-0 before beating Cagliari 1-0 and seeing off Fiorentina 3-1 most recently.
In their last season in the Champions League, Real Madrid reached the round of 16 after finishing second in their group.
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Manchester City vs Napoli last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 1 - 4 - 1
Missing players
R. Ait-Nouri
J. Stones
MidfielderM. Kovacic
R. Cherki
ForwardO. Marmoush
N. Contini
DefenderA. Rrahmani
ForwardR. Lukaku
Manchester City & Napoli Squad Analysis
Manchester City’s talisman Erling Haaland will be targeting his 50th Champions League goal here. The Norwegian had a perfect warm-up for this game with two goals in the Manchester derby.
He is now just two goals away from becoming the ninth-highest scorer in this competition. This early in the season, the City forward is already averaging an xG of 5.74.
City will also hope Phil Foden’s goal in the Manchester derby marks his return to form after struggling a bit earlier. The hosts will be without forwards Omar Marmoush and Rayan Cherki, who are out injured.
Romelu Lukaku will sit out of this match as he recovers from a thigh injury.
There will be a number of reunions at the Etihad Stadium when these two sides face off. Kevin De Bruyne’s will be the big one. The Belgian enjoyed a lot of success at Manchester City before leaving for Napoli last summer.
He arrives for this game in the best shape, having scored in Napoli’s 3-1 win over Fiorentina. That was his season goal for Napoli, and he brings forth an xG of 1.24 this early in the season.
Another scorer in that game was Rasmus Hojlund, who will be returning to town, having left Manchester United in the summer, while Scott McTominay, a former Manchester United midfielder, is also in the mix.
Most goals and assists
Manchester City
Napoli
E. Haaland
(5 Goals)
K. De Bruyne
(2 Goals)
J. Doku
(2 Assists)
M. Politano
(1 Assists)
,
A. Buongiorno
(1 Assists)
,
L. Spinazzola
(1 Assists)
, 
F. Anguissa
(1 Assists)
Manchester City - Napoli Key Points
- Manchester City’s last four Champions League matches had over 2.5 goals.
- 21 goals were scored in Manchester City’s last five Champions League games.
- Four of Napoli’s last eight Champions League matches produced over 2.5 goals.
- Each of these teams’ last three meetings produced over 2.5 goals.
- Manchester City scored 3+ in three of their last four home Champions League matches.
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Our Manchester City vs Napoli Prediction
Napoli are in fine form so far and will be hoping their perfect start to the season doesn’t end here. In their first visit to City in 2011, the match ended in a 1-1 draw, and that is the only one of their meetings to have had under 2.5 goals.
Three or more goals were scored in each of the other three. Both teams are coming off comfortable wins, having scored three each, and we could have another high-scoring game here. Our prediction for Manchester City v Napoli is for over 2.5.
Manchester City vs Napoli - Other Interesting Predictions
Game to end in a draw
Manchester City have had a tough start to the season, and they will not have it any easier against the Italian champions. However, the visitors come here on a poor run away to English teams. On the other hand, Pep Guardiola doesn’t have a great record against Antonio Conte. All these don’t point to a single team with an advantage over the other. As such, we will back this game to end in a draw.
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Manchester City vs Napoli match : Frequently asked questions
The Manchester City v Napoli match will be played at Etihad Stadium in Manchester.
The Manchester City v Napoli match will be aired on TNT Sports for the UK fans, while in Italy it will be aired on Sky, with highlights on Amazon Prime. On SportyTrader, we will have the live updates through the UEFA Champions League page.
The Manchester City v Napoli match will be played on Thursday, 18th September.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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