Manchester City vs Chelsea Prediction & Betting Tips - Premier League
England - Premier League
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by Sridhar Bhamidi in Premier League Predictions
Managerless Chelsea will have their backs against the wall verus Manchester City, who are looking to bounce back from the midweek disappointment. This will be matchday 20 of the 2025-26 English Premier League to be played on Sunday at the Etihad Stadium. This match between the second-placed Sky Blues and the fifth-placed Blues comes with our prediction of Manchester City -1 European Handicap.
A win here is paramount for both teams, for contrasting reasons. City need to bounce back from the midweek disappointment where they dropped points and fell behind Arsenal in the title race. Chelsea have had a turbulent preparation for this big game, sacking their manager Enzo Maresca.
With a lot riding on this result, City will hope Etihad can bring the best out of their team. Chelsea will hope that's not the case, as they struggled at this venue recently, not to speak of the turbulence in the dugout. What's in store at the weekend for these two ambitious sides? Read more for our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
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The Best Betting Odds for Manchester City v Chelsea Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.45 | 5 | 6 |
|
|
1.44 | 5 | 5.5 |
|
|
1.44 | 4.5 | 5.5 |
|
|
1.46 | 5 | 6 |
|
|
1.48 | 4.75 | 5.75 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Manchester City and Chelsea?
Our prediction for the Manchester City vs Chelsea match is: Manchester City -1 European Handicap.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 04/01/2026 between Manchester City and Chelsea in Premier League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 57.81% for a win of Manchester City against Chelsea with odds of 1.52 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Manchester City vs Chelsea is 20.94% with odds of 5.2 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 21.25% chance ⭐ for a win of Chelsea vs Manchester City with odds of 6.2 at BC Game.
Manchester City - Chelsea Prediction and Best Odds:
| Manchester City Chelsea Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City wins | 57.81% | 1.52 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.55% | 1.37 at Bwin |
| Both Team To Score | 45% | 1.55 at Ladbrokes |
| Half-time / Full-time : Manchester City/Manchester City | 28.59% | 2.25 at Betfair |
Manchester City vs Chelsea Form
Manchester City and Chelsea's standings in the Premier League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
42 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 26 |
|
5
|
31 | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 11 |
Manchester City and Chelsea Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Jan 2026 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
17 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup
14 Dec 2025 - Premier League
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
17 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup
6 Dec 2025 - Premier League
29 Nov 2025 - Premier League
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
9 Nov 2025 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Jan 2026 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
14 Dec 2025 - Premier League
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
2 Dec 2025 - Premier League
22 Nov 2025 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
16 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup
13 Dec 2025 - Premier League
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Dec 2025 - Premier League
27 Dec 2025 - Premier League
13 Dec 2025 - Premier League
30 Nov 2025 - Premier League
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
8 Nov 2025 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
16 Dec 2025 - Carabao Cup
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
6 Dec 2025 - Premier League
3 Dec 2025 - Premier League
22 Nov 2025 - Premier League
Manchester City vs Chelsea Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
25 Jan 2025 - Premier League
18 Aug 2024 - Premier League
3 Aug 2024 - Clubs Friendlies
20 Apr 2024 - FA Cup
17 Feb 2024 - Premier League
12 Nov 2023 - Premier League
Manchester City - Chelsea: Form Analysis
City have 41 points from 19 matches (W13, D2, L4) and are four points behind leaders Arsenal, while being two points ahead of third. They came here after a 0-0 away draw at Sunderland in the midweek, which halted a six-game winning run in the Premier League.
Getting back to the Etihad Stadium is likely to bring the best out of Pep Guardiola's side. They have won their last eight league games here, scoring 3+ goals in seven of those matches.
City are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League games against Chelsea.
Chelsea's 30 points from 19 matches (W8, D6, L5) see them start this round three points behind Liverpool but only three points ahead of 11th-placed Fulham. The Blues come here after a 2-2 home draw against Bournemouth last Tuesday.
That result made it three games without a run in the league (D2, L1), and the Blues have just one win to their name across seven matches (D4, L2). Their away form has also tapered off, as Chelsea drew their last two league trips, which were preceded by a 3-1 loss at Leeds.
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Manchester City against Chelsea Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 2 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Missing players
J. Stones
R. Ait-Nouri
MidfielderM. Kovacic
O. Bobb
ForwardO. Marmoush
L. Colwill
M. Cucurella
MidfielderD. Essugo
R. Lavia
Manchester City & Chelsea Squad Analysis
City lost Savinho and Nico Gonzalez to injuries against Sunderland. Concerns remain over the availability of John Stones and Oscar Bobb, while Mateo Kovacic remains out of contention.
The hosts are likely to stick to their 4-2-3-1 formation with the irresistible Erling Haaland leading the line. Phil Foden is likely to play in the hole behind the striker, while Jeremy Doku could hope for a starting role after starting on the bench against Sunderland. Haaland has failed to score in his last two matches, but will that be a concern?
Haaland has five goals across his last five competitive games.
Moises Caicedo is suspended for this match for Chelsea, while Marc Cucurella remains doubtful. The usual absences remain, as Levi Colwill and Romeo Lavia remain on the sidelines.
It remains to be seen if the temporary manager will stick to the usual 4-2-3-1 formation. Cole Palmer could be the one playing behind the lone striker, who could be Joao Pedro. Alejandro Garnacho and Pedro Neto could be manning the flanks.
Most goals and assists
Manchester City
Chelsea
E. Haaland
(25 Goals)
Joao Pedro
(7 Goals)
, 
E. Fernandez
(7 Goals)
R. Cherki
(8 Assists)
R. James
(12 Assists)
Manchester City - Chelsea Key Points
- City have failed to score in just one of their last 22 Premier League matches against Chelsea.
- City scored 3+ goals in seven of their last eight home Premier League matches.
- City won seven of their last eight home league games by a 2+ goal margin.
- Chelsea conceded 2+ goals in three of their last five away matches in all competitions.
- Chelsea lost both their Premier League matches last season against City, both by a two-goal margin.
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Our Manchester City vs Chelsea Prediction
Manchester City dropped crucial points in their midweek game against Sunderland, falling four points behind Arsenal. With the Gunners playing before them, the gap could further increase before kick-off. That only puts more pressure on the hosts to post a win against a Chelsea side that comes here without a manager after Enzo Maresca was sacked. The Blues have also struggled in their visits to the Etihad and haven't beaten City since the 2021 Champions League final.
City will fancy a win by at least 2+ goals, so our Manchester City vs Chelsea prediction is Manchester City -1 European Handicap.
Manchester City vs Chelsea - Other Interesting Predictions
Phil Foden to score anytime
Phil Foden scored in this fixture last year, helping City win 3-1, extending their impressive record against Chelsea. Can Foden continue this form? He could fancy his chances of a goal here.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Manchester City Chelsea
| Manchester City vs Chelsea | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City wins | 1.67 | 1.45 | -13.2% |
| Draw | 3.9 | 5 | +28.2% |
| Chelsea wins | 4.5 | 6 | +33.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Manchester City is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 13.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 59.9% and is now 69.0% (9.1%)
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Manchester City vs Chelsea - FAQs
The Manchester City vs Chelsea English Premier League match will be telecast live on Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League for viewers based outside of the UK. Sky Customers can also access the match on Sky Go and on the sky Sports app, while it is also available on Now TV's Sports membership.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our English Premier League Livescore page!
Manchester City are in the midst of an unbeaten eight-game run against Chelsea (W6, D2). This is their joint-longest run without a loss in the history of the Premier League, doing so in eight games between 1936 and 1949. Can they better it this weekend?
Chelsea have struggled in their visits to this venue recently, as they could win just three of their last 16 away matches at the Etihad (D2, L11). Will the narrative change this time?
What makes Chelsea's task even more difficult is that City have won their last eight Premier League home matches, scoring 3+ goals in seven of those eight games. That includes the last five in a row, so the home faithful will hope for another high scorer from their side.
When it comes to individual players, watch out for a certain Erling Haaland. He has scored 11 goals in eight Premier League home matches for City this season. Haaland has netted at least a brace in five different games.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
