Europe - Champions League
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by Devesh Jaganath in Champions League Predictions
In front of a roaring Kop, the might of Madrid will march on Merseyside in midweek, when Atletico Madrid face Liverpool in their opening match of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League. The Reds and Los Colchoneros both reached the round of 16 in this competition last season before bowing out on penalties. Check out our match prediction below!
Arne Slot's side enter the new UCL campaign aiming to rectify last season’s so-near-yet-so-far run, where they came through the League Phase as table toppers before bowing out to eventual champions PSG. This, then, is the start of the English champions' road to redemption, and they head into it with momentum, having burst out of the blocks in the Premier League with four wins in four.
The Scousers' first obstacle comes in the shape of Diego Simeone’s Atleti, who have not made the best start to their domestic campaign. However, the Spaniards have built a reputation for wrecking European dreams over the years - something Liverpool diehards will remember vividly from that famous 2020 Anfield ambush. It’s Madrid vs Merseyside - let’s get into the key stats!
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The Best Betting Odds for Liverpool v Atletico Madrid Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.57 | 4.2 | 5.5 |
|
|
1.57 | 4 | 5 |
|
|
1.57 | 4 | 5.5 |
|
|
1.6 | 4.2 | 5 |
|
|
1.56 | 4.25 | 5.5 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Liverpool and Atletico Madrid?
Our prediction for the Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid match is: under 3.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 17/09/2025 between Liverpool and Atletico Madrid in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 55.36% for a win of Liverpool against Atletico Madrid with odds of 1.61 at Stake.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid is 17.82% with odds of 4.35 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 26.82% chance ⭐ for a win of Atletico Madrid vs Liverpool with odds of 5.89 at 22bet.
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Form
Liverpool and Atletico Madrid Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Sep 2025 - Premier League
31 Aug 2025 - Premier League
25 Aug 2025 - Premier League
15 Aug 2025 - Premier League
10 Aug 2025 - Community Shield
4 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 Aug 2025 - Premier League
15 Aug 2025 - Premier League
4 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
25 May 2025 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Sep 2025 - Premier League
25 Aug 2025 - Premier League
10 Aug 2025 - Community Shield
30 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
13 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
19 May 2025 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
30 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
23 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
17 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
23 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
23 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
18 May 2025 - LaLiga
10 May 2025 - LaLiga
24 Apr 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
17 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
19 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
15 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
0 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
3 Nov 2021 - Champions League
19 Oct 2021 - Champions League
11 Mar 2020 - Champions League
18 Feb 2020 - Champions League
Liverpool - Atletico Madrid: Form Analysis
Liverpool were the standout performers during the League Phase of this competition last season, finishing top of the table with 21 points before falling to PSG on penalties in the last 16.
This season, the Reds have already surged to the top of the Premier League standings with four wins on the bounce, including a hard-fought last-minute victory over Burnley at the weekend.
Notably, a trend has begun to form for the English champs this season. After their victory at Turf Moor, Arne Slot's side became the first team in the Premier League to win four consecutive games by scoring the winner in the final 10 minutes of matches.
Liverpool have won their last 14 group/ league phase home games across all UEFA competitions!
Meanwhile, Atletico Madrid also enjoyed an impressive UCL League Phase last term, finishing in fifth place with 18 points (W6 D0 L2) before bowing out in the Madrid derby to their arch-rivals.
However, Los Rojiblancos have not been at their best at the start of this season, as they only secured their first victory in La Liga this past weekend against Villarreal. They had lost one and drawn two before the international break.
The visitors have only suffered defeat in one of their last 15 Matchday 1 Champions League fixtures and have scored in all but one of their last 16 group-stage matches in this competition (home or away).
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Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Missing players
S. Bajcetic
MidfielderC. Jones
J. Gimenez
MidfielderA. Baena
T. Almada
Liverpool & Atletico Madrid Squad Analysis
After producing 50+ goal involvements across all competitions last term, Mohamed Salah has made a fairly quiet start to this season, but held his nerve to tuck home the winner against Burnley at the weekend.
Slot deployed Dominik Szoboszlai at right-back at Turf Moor, but the Hungarian international is likely to step back into midfield here, with Jeremie Frimpong and Conor Bradley now fit again.
Szoboszlai could replace Alexis Mac Allister in the Reds’ engine room after the Argentine was withdrawn at halftime over the weekend due to a knock. Curtis Jones is ruled out through injury.
Will Alexander Isak make his Liverpool debut this week?
The former Newcastle man is still building up to full match fitness, but Slot dropped a major hint after the Burnley game that the Swede is all but certain to feature in the matchday squad for this one.
Simeone, on the other hand, saw as many as four of his players forced off against Villarreal, including Julian Alvarez, Nico Gonzalez, Robin Le Normand and David Hancko. The severity of the injuries sustained are still unknown.
Alvarez was the leading goal-scorer for Atleti last season with 29 goals, including seven in this competition, and his potential absence could be a massive blow for the visitors.
Former Chelsea midfielder Conor Gallagher could get the nod to start if Gonzalez is unable to feature. Jose Gimenez, Alex Baena and Thiago Almada will miss this week’s trip to Anfield.
Most goals and assists
Liverpool
Atletico Madrid
M. Salah
(2 Goals)
, 
H. Ekitike
(2 Goals)
G. Simeone
(1 Goals)
,
N. Gonzalez
(1 Goals)
, 
B. Pablo
(1 Goals)
,
J. Alvarez
(1 Goals)
, 
A. Sorloth
(1 Goals)
C. Gakpo
(2 Assists)
D. Hancko
(1 Assists)
,
M. Llorente
(1 Assists)
,
J. Alvarez
(1 Assists)
Liverpool - Atletico Madrid Key Points
- Eight of Liverpool’s 12 Champions League games last season ended with under 3.5 goals.
- Liverpool kept clean sheets in three of their four UCL League Phase home games last season.
- Liverpool only conceded five goals in the League Phase of this competition last season.
- Liverpool have kept clean sheets in their last two matches ahead of this one.
- All four of Atletico Madrid’s games this season have ended with under 3.5 goals.
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Our Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
Liverpool’s defence came under the microscope after the first couple of weeks this season when they conceded four goals in their first two matches. However, those issues have seemingly been addressed more recently, with the side entering this match following back-to-back clean sheets.
Given the start Atletico have made to the current campaign, taking anything from this match will feel like a massive result. We’re expecting the visitors to prioritise the clean sheet in this one. Our Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid prediction is under 3.5.
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid - Other Interesting Predictions
Both teams to score (NO)
Liverpool kept clean sheets in three of their four UCL League Phase home games last season and shut out their opponents in their last two matches ahead of this one. Additionally, Atleti could be without their chief marksman Julian Alvarez for this match, with the Argentine flagged as an injury doubt.
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Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid match : Frequently asked questions
The Champions League match between Liverpool and Atletico Madrid will take place on September 17 at 19:00 GMT.
The Champions League match between Liverpool and Atletico Madrid will be played at Anfield in Liverpool.
The Champions League match between Liverpool and Atletico Madrid will be broadcast live on TNT Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can keep up with all the action using our Champions League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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