South America - Copa Libertadores
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by Ita Emmanuel | in Copa Libertadores Predictions
This Copa Libertadores quarter-final first leg will see LDU Quito play host to Sao Paulo on Thursday. Can the Whites defeat the Sovereign to strengthen their bid to reach the semi-finals? Here is our match prediction.
The highlight of LDU Quito’s Copa Libertadores campaign came in the round 16 when they eliminated defending champions Botafogo RJ, winning 2-1 on aggregate. Gabriel Villamil’s seventh-minute goal and Lisandro Alzugaray’s 60th-minute penalty helped the Ecuadorian champions overturn their 1-0 first leg defeat.
They won their last domestic match 1-0 against Libertad and are unbeaten in their last 24 home matches. Tiago Nunes’ side also boast a solid goal-scoring heading into this match. They have found the net in four of their last five matches and in their last 12 home fixtures.
Sao Paulo scraped past Colombian side Atletico Nacional in the round of 16. The Brazilian giants settled for a 1-1 aggregate draw before winning 4-3 via penalties to progress to the last eight. They defeated Botafogo RJ 1-0 in their last match in Brazil’s Serie A.
Hernán Crespo’s side have won four of their eight Copa Libertadores matches this season in regulation time (D4), but have struggled defensively in their recent fixtures. They have conceded in nine of their last 11 away matches, and in their recent three encounters with LDU Quito.
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The Best Betting Odds for LDU Quito v SAO Paulo Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.1 | 2.8 | 4.5 |
|
|
2.05 | 2.8 | 4.2 |
|
|
2.1 | 2.75 | 4 |
|
|
2.1 | 2.8 | 4.2 |
|
|
2.06 | 2.95 | 4.4 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between LDU Quito and SAO Paulo?
Our prediction for the LDU Quito vs SAO Paulo match is: LDU Quito score between one and two goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 18/09/2025 between LDU Quito and SAO Paulo in Copa Libertadores :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 41.47% for a win of LDU Quito against SAO Paulo with odds of 2.1 at Bet365.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between LDU Quito vs SAO Paulo is 32.85% with odds of 2.95 at Unibet.
- Our prediction model gives a 25.68% chance ⭐ for a win of SAO Paulo vs LDU Quito with odds of 4.5 at Bet365.
LDU Quito - SAO Paulo Prediction and Best Odds:
| LDU Quito SAO Paulo Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| LDU Quito wins | 41.47% | 2.1 at Bet365 |
| Under 2.5 | 65.63% | 1.33 at Bwin |
| Both Team To Score | 45.83% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: LDU Quito | 17.58% | 5 at Betfair |
LDU Quito vs SAO Paulo Form
LDU Quito and SAO Paulo Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Sept 2025 - Liga Pro
30 Aug 2025 - Liga Pro
24 Aug 2025 - Liga Pro
21 Aug 2025 - Copa Libertadores
17 Aug 2025 - Liga Pro
14 Aug 2025 - Copa Libertadores
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Aug 2025 - Liga Pro
21 Aug 2025 - Copa Libertadores
17 Aug 2025 - Liga Pro
3 Aug 2025 - Liga Pro
20 Jul 2025 - Liga Pro
12 Jul 2025 - Liga Pro
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Sept 2025 - Liga Pro
24 Aug 2025 - Liga Pro
14 Aug 2025 - Copa Libertadores
9 Aug 2025 - Liga Pro
24 Jul 2025 - Liga Pro
16 Jul 2025 - Copa Ecuador
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Sept 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
30 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
24 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
19 Aug 2025 - Copa Libertadores
16 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
12 Aug 2025 - Copa Libertadores
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Sept 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
24 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
19 Aug 2025 - Copa Libertadores
9 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
31 Jul 2025 - Copa do Brasil
27 Jul 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
30 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
16 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
12 Aug 2025 - Copa Libertadores
6 Aug 2025 - Copa do Brasil
3 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
24 Jul 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
LDU Quito vs SAO Paulo Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
0 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
31 Aug 2023 - Copa Sudamericana
24 Aug 2023 - Copa Sudamericana
22 Sept 2020 - Copa Libertadores
11 Mar 2020 - Copa Libertadores
LDU Quito against SAO Paulo Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Most goals and assists
LDU Quito
SAO Paulo
M. Estrada
(11 Goals)
Luciano
(9 Goals)
,
A. Silva
(9 Goals)
B. Ramirez
(3 Assists)
Luciano
(5 Assists)
, 
E. Diaz
(5 Assists)
LDU Quito - SAO Paulo Key Points
- LDU Quito have scored between one and two goals in four of their last five matches.
- LDU Quito have scored between one and two goals in their last seven home matches.
- LDU Quito have scored in their last 12 home matches.
- Sao Paulo have conceded goals in nine of their last 11 away matches.
- Sao Paulo have conceded goals in their last three encounters with LDU Quito.
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Our LDU Quito vs SAO Paulo Prediction
LDU Quito reinforced their status among strong favourites to win the 2025 Copa Libertadores following a statement victory over defending champions Botafogo RJ. Tiago Nunes’ men boasts a decent attack and have turned their homeground into a fortress in the last 24 matches.
Meanwhile, three-time champions Sao Paulo have struggled in the defense in their recent matches. While the Brazilian side are no mean opponents, they are likely to concede against the hosts on Thursday given the latters’ recent scoring record. Our LDU Quito vs Sao Paulo prediction is LDU Quito score between one and two goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis LDU Quito SAO Paulo
| LDU Quito vs SAO Paulo | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| LDU Quito wins | 2.05 | 2.1 | +2.4% |
| Draw | 3.25 | 2.8 | -13.8% |
| SAO Paulo wins | 3.6 | 4.5 | +25.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- LDU Quito is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 2.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 48.8% and is now 47.6% (-1.2%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the LDU Quito vs. SAO Paulo game!
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Try your luck on this year's Copa Libertadores! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
