23 Aug 2025, 06:00
La Vuelta
La Vuelta - Stage 1
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La Vuelta - Stage 1 Predictions & Betting tips - La Vuelta
by Matthew Newman |
The 2025 Vuelta kicks off in Northern Italy with a stage from Turin to Novara. There are 10 mountain top finishes from the 21 stages, but we start with one of four sprinter stages, so it is the fast men from whom our prediction must come.
Mads Pedersen won four stages at the Giro, claiming the green jersey in the process. With such a hard Vuelta in front of the peloton, most teams have left their top sprinters at home, which could be a big plus for the chances of Pedersen.
The big danger is Jasper Philipsen, who won the opening stage of the Tour de France before a crash on Stage 3 saw his race end. He is a more natural sprinter than Pedersen, but looked well off the pace in the recent Tour of Denmark, won by Pedersen.
One rider who produced some of the best rides of his career during the Giro was Casper van Uden. He won the stage to Lecce before finishing second to Viadana. He was not as sharp in the recent Tour of Poland, but he needs respect.
It was a strong Tour Down Under to start 2025 from Bryan Coquard, but he has struggled for form in the main since. He abandoned the Tour De France after Stage 13 with a top finish of seventh on one stage, but he still has some speed in his legs.
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La Vuelta - Stage 1 - La Vuelta prediction key points
- Stage 1 of the 80th Vuelta is 186.1km in length.
- The finish is on a long, gradual right-hand curve outside of Novara’s football stadium.
- Mads Pedersen opened up the Giro with a stage win, his 10th in a Grand Tour and can do the same in the Vuelta.
- The only time that Mads Pedersen rode in a Vuelta he won three stages and the green jersey.
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Our La Vuelta - Stage 1 - La Vuelta prediction
Mads Pedersen has only ridden the Vuelta once, winning three stages back in 2022. He went one better than that in the Giro earlier this year and has found himself in a Vuelta with a distinct lack of sprinting talent due to the volume of mountain top finishes.
With only four stages for the sprinters to come to the fore, it is going to be important for their teams to control any breaks here to ensure the peloton comes to the finish together. Lidl-Trek are masterful at that, so our La Vuelta Stage 1 prediction is Mads Pedersen to win.
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